UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

worldtraveller

StevieJ wrote: »

I think there are one or two on here who are probably feeling aggrieved, they sold out at low 5000's waiting for 4500, we may see it yet.

Personally I sold out about 30% of equities into cash at at FTSE level of around 5,700-5,800 back in March/April this year, so around 4-5% below current level. I'm still waiting for the next big dip....;)

I agree, we clearly haven't seen the 4,600 yet, and may well not, but I'm basically still bearish, and holding out, before drip feeding more cash back into equities when it makes sense.

sabretoothtigger

We did go pretty low this year though not for very long. That could still be the bottom for a long time, not sure but that seems most likely now. I did think we'd get 4500 or 4600 or maybe lower but apparently not and its getting a bit late now with inflation growing more likely in people minds

52wk Range: 4,790.00 - 6,000.55

I'm still waiting for the next big dip

we'll have a dip. Not sure it'll be big. Its fairly certain we'll have a reset lower, the volume now is less then half and that means the price is fake. Its like a shop with a window display of a fur coat for £10 except theres only one and its sold already, dont rely on these prices

Same happened in xmas 08 and 09. End dec is usa tax year end, so if they sell now they have to pay the tax on the gains not long after but sell Jan 3rd and you delay the tax for another 12 months


At the same time, I see volatility increasing. Entire systems of failure instead of just bad bank loans, I dont know but I suspect effects snowballing in scale

Sold my Anglo american share from 2009 today as its done well and quarter of it is de Beers diamonds. So thats my small profit take, it could go up another pound but I dont see it taking off.
Would prefer to swap some over to Xstrata


Parkmead is up 80% since the start of this week. A few of the dana team who got taken over have switched over


Downside targets for FTSE would be 5800 5600-odd and then my most negative view right now would be to recount all gains since Sept. That seems feasible, 5244. Beyond that but to get ftse weakness to some extent it'd require currency strength.

tradetime

Happy New Year to all, haven't posted here for a while. Hope your investments / trades for 2010 went well, and everybodies ready for another great year.

cloud_dog

Welcome back. We've missed your insightful posts. :T

tradetime

Thanx cloud_dog, hope you had a great year been a great bull market nice profits for all who embraced it. Looking forward to 2011.

cloud_dog

tradetime wrote: »

Thanx cloud_dog, hope you had a great year been a great bull market nice profits for all who embraced it. Looking forward to 2011.

2010 was good but could have been much better (held too much on the sidelines for too long at times) but, we live and learn.

Looking forward to 2011, a number of the stocks I hold (CEY, MXP, NYO, POG) have news/updates etc scheduled for January so hopefully it will be a good start.

lvader

cloud_dog wrote: »

2010 was good but could have been much better (held too much on the sidelines for too long at times) but, we live and learn.

I was also a bit too cautious, I didn't really believe it but all the talk about double dips and depresion had me hedging my bets a bit too much. This year I'll be hedgeing against inflation which will make it an all-in kind of year. Actually it's been like that for me since November. Commodities are bound to do well again. China surely must have a much better year, the Shanghai composite is actually down this year, against a backdrop of double digit growth. Lots of people will be looking to pull out of government bonds this will push up the markets and I think the now undervalued big US stocks will get a fair share of that.

cloud_dog

lvader wrote: »

I was also a bit too cautious, I didn't really believe it but all the talk about double dips and depresion had me hedging my bets a bit too much.

Have to be honest I am still wary of a significant correction in the markets and if this were to happen I don't think anything will be safe from the initial sell, sell, sell pandamonium but would expect commodity (asset) based investments to recover [more] quickly.

EDIT: A sideways moving Shanghai would be no bad thing for a while. Although having said that, I'm expecting plenty of volatility (which really doesn't suit my investment style).

lvader

cloud_dog wrote: »

Have to be honest I am still wary of a significant correction in the markets and if this were to happen I don't think anything will be safe from the initial sell, sell, sell pandamonium but would expect commodity (asset) based investments to recover [more] quickly.

I think it was telling that European stocks plunnged in the last minutes of trading yesterday, while in the US the end of trading sell off was quickly bought up and the prices recovered.

tradetime

For me personally I finished trading for the year on Tues 20th, I do not believe that in the midst of one of the biiggest holiday periods on the calander that anyone can draw any meaningful conclusions from any market activity. Much of the volume is gone as funds who are happy with their positions have packed up and left until the New Year. Of those who are still active, some of that activity will be hedging for the holiday, and in the US a degree of tax efficiency unwinding. Other than that, most of the activity is driven by the least experienced of the daytraders.