UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Im looking at the banks as being cheaper as a sector then need be. Except hsbc, the chart for that is negative.
Not sure why but they are in china and that market is due to head down because its currency is heading up. (vice versa japan has been strongest market in nov)

Not sure if thats right because hsbc here is valued in pounds but chart for it is not positive I reckon

Barc is near its long term support, lloyds I think could go to 56 still but may bounce a bit still before that. Santander Ive said before is cheaper then it should be but thats fundamentals, chart says its bottom of its (negative) range

RBS im not sure but its cheap comparatively I think. Again I figure a penny off the bottom of its falls since august highs. It might be bad but it looks over done right now


GKP I think is repeating what it did in july and august 2009. Big break up, falls back and then carries on up. It fits the 61% fib retracement, again more chart voodoo but even a ruler placed on a chart will say its due a rise (comparatively)



This is a holiday week for usa.







http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/3623/35crl1i.jpg

lvader

Great timimg, I was thinking about banks today. They do look oversold.

blinko

the problem with banks is there isnt much upside ?? but with the euro debt alot more downside, i would hope spain and portugal take a small amount of help to avoid similar situations like ireland, alth ough to be honest i had a nice long position on the FTSE thanks alot,

long FTSE at 5600 seems like a no brainer !!

sabretoothtigger

cloud_dog wrote: »

Additionally from a resource perspective the US$ appears to at / approaching critical support level. All credit for the linked chart to DavidTheGrim from iii (who frequently posts excellent TA on the CEY booard).

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns


On CEY he has drawn it as a Symmetrical triangle.

your grim fellow was good there, it brokeout and rose 10% though its fallen, its now above the 7th nov price


Dollar has been rising also even after fed prints 600bn though its not all circulating yet, its so high now DXY approaches 80.80 which is a very regular place for resistance.
Yet gold price hasnt really retracted so much, euro has been weak and yen weaker also.

As USD got stronger Ive put more into investec emerging debt especially as its about to pay out anyway, I think its a better long term bet then normal bonds
Note UK holds 40bn or so of usa debt Santander holds like 20bn of spanish debt I think hence they are beat up now


With the HSBC chart above, note its supposed to stay above 61%. Also I had drawn a trendline there 6 months ago, its a coincidence I take as significance. Anyway its broke, I now wait to see if it turns out how I expect or not which is negative! recent lows are support but it should be slow to rise and quicker to fall ditto ftse -675 res

Similarly I have SKR above its 61% level just about. Again its just a short term look but my long term estimate is (also) positive though the risk, volatility or impact does not compare to hsbc

candlesticks are more accurate but this is clearer

http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/9504/img12909497101779994183.gif


RRL rose 50% in one day. It was 9.34p and its like 6p now, opps
I dont know oil explorers very well, I get it a bit better now. They announced oil probables not actual progress or a flowtest like gkp has, hence the hot air deflation I guess though its decline is not yet terminal and inline annually still (ie. tortoise like)


Stocks I looked at recently are Icap Faroe Parkmead Salamander VGM and LCG

LCG is maybe the 'cheapest' but Faroe maybe I like the most though 8% off would be nicer
Encore I think looks positive where as premier is at its previous 08 high


http://img574.imageshack.us/img574/453/dollarindex.png
http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/3213/skrpotash.gif
http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/1592/vgmgold.png
http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/3092/gulfkeystone.gif
http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/6306/barc.gif
http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/3216/llloy.gif

the problem with banks is there isnt much upside ??

Sure there is, not tons but I'd say alot. They also have alot of debt if that debt devalues along with the currency it means they will do far better then expected, its basically why we have rates low. The debts of RBS are 1 trillion or so which is also the gdp of our nation.

Natwest 14 years ago was making 2bn in clear profit every year, before rbs touched it. I think alot of that was from beating up customers but anyhow they can make alot of money.
Barc is near 255 but could be 390 again without any great exaggeration so 50% upside and maybe you risk it going to 200, its probably a decent risk

worldtraveller

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

...As USD got stronger Ive put more into investec emerging debt especially as its about to pay out anyway, I think its a better long term bet then normal bonds

Tom Stevenson appears to agree with you...

....A third area in which investors might reasonably look for income is one which a comparison of risk and historic return suggests might be the most interesting of all – emerging market government debt. A better performer in capital terms since 1993 than any of US equities, emerging market equities, commodities and property, emerging market debt continues to offer a big income advantage over perceived havens like US Treasuries.

When you consider that emerging market growth is set to outstrip developed markets for years to come, that the last significant default in this area was Argentina in 2001 and that many so-called developed government bonds look like they are heading for junk status, the argument against emerging market debt gets harder and harder to make.

Telegraph.co.uk

lvader

I took a punt on Barclays Today @256, it might get a bit lower but I thought it's a decent price to buy into.

Thrugelmir

lvader wrote: »

I took a punt on Barclays Today @256, it might get a bit lower but I thought it's a decent price to buy into.

Falling price is for good reason. Todays news.

Barclays came under the most pressure due to its exposure to the Iberian peninsula, losing 2.6 percent after earlier touching a 12-month low.
"It is becoming increasingly apparent that if the contagion effect continues, the European authorities may not have the ammunition available to assuage concerns that the crisis won't spread to Spain and Italy," said Michael Hewson, market analyst at CMC Markets.

lvader

Banks are oversold, they will bounce back.

StevieJ

lvader wrote: »

Banks are oversold, they will bounce back.

Successful prediction, well done

purch

Banks are oversold, they will bounce back

:mad:You could have told me that yeste...........opps you did