UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

worldtraveller

Barclays Plc, Britain’s third-largest bank, said its capital ratio “remains strong,” as quarterly profit fell 76% on lower revenue at the investment banking unit.

Pretax profit in the three months to Sept. 30 fell to £327 million ($527 million) from £1.36 billion in the year-earlier period, the London-based company said today in a statement.

Barclays Capital, the investment banking unit, posted a pretax loss of £182 million from a profit of £369 million. The bank’s “capital, leverage and liquidity ratios remain strong,” Barclays said.

Bloomberg

StevieJ

Must have been better than expected as their share price is up, going on 2%.

sabretoothtigger

You own some Barc Stevie ? I rebought some not much though as I wanted to buy nearer to 260. I think they are still set to continue down overall but then I see value in holding them once that plays out

They broken out of that negative for the moment, similar to the 5th. If it doesnt build on the prices here it will appear as a double top which is similar to what I saw in GKP recently hence I think they will stay down for the moment

If it does go up I'd aim for 310 and sell most of it and hold santander instead. 390 to sell all I would like. I held sant and telefonica mostly, lost a fair bit on tef from its top now as it maxed out on a trend (short term)

commission costs too much to sell just some or any even but at least they have nice div and recent news events favourable with growth in south america very much likely to help




I like the sig

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell” John Templeton.

POG good recovery so far, it found that support. Cey also broke recent downwards move and I'd aim 200 or so for that nearterm but would hold


GKP near lows of yesterday which is 5 day average price which in theory should play out bearish overall, see how it goes. Not sure if I'll be able to reenter on this one or even want to, should have gone for 110 but its never easy to judge.
Think Im missing out drill schedule for a pace to these things


http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Markets&article_id=10121783


dollar down market up. looking for a readjustment but path of least resistance is upwards allegedly



BP to match short term top in ftse I reckon - http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/4527/img12893078695674789940.gif

StevieJ

I sold Barclays for around £3 last year and concentrated on Shell and BP, fortunately sold Shell and BP to crystallise a gain in March and only bought back Shell

worldtraveller

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I like the sig

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell” John Templeton.

Interesting article in the WSJ a couple of days ago:

'Dumb Money' Returns to Stocks

Individual investors are wading back into the U.S. stock market. That ought to make über-bulls think twice.

Positive forces including strong corporate earnings, improving economic data and more bond buying by the Federal Reserve have fueled a 17% rally in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index since late August. The market has now punched through its prior 2010 highs, set in April, to reach levels last seen in 2008 before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Predictably, that has also triggered a rebound in bullish sentiment and helped coax investors back into the market. The American Association of Individual Investors finds 48% of investors surveyed are bullish on stocks as of last week—the highest level since February 2007. Bearish sentiment, at 27%, is at its lowest since January 2006.

For now, this support could help the market extend its recent run. Yet it may also mean it is late in the rally game. Retail investors are usually a lagging indicator, reacting to past performance rather than predicting future gains. Their flows, says Harvard University lecturer Owen Lamont, can create "a short-term lift" but it rarely lasts beyond a few months. He and Andrea Frazzini of AQR Capital Management have written a series of papers together on this "dumb money" phenomenon.



Admittedly, the flow of money from individual investors back into the market has been more a trickle than a flood—from January 2009 through August, individuals pulled around $162 billion from equity funds.

Even so, a return of retail investors argues for caution. The prior high in sentiment this year came in late spring, just as the market was headed for a bruising selloff. It may not be wise to fight the Fed, but it can be just as ill-advised to follow the crowd.

WSJ

turbobob

Yes I read similar on the FT site the other day regarding the big swing in bullish/bearish sentiment ratio. It could be (and probably is) a good contrarian indicator but at the same time with billions being pumped into the system, who knows where this will lead? Europe sovereign debt issues seem to be bubbling up again, something to keep an eye on - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9260e85a-eb66-11df-b482-00144feab49a.html

See POG is doing nicely today (up over 8% at the moment).

sabretoothtigger

POG still acting positive now, its slower then CEY but more consistent. CEY is quite similar to HSBC in that its retracted much of its recent gains and needs to rise from here to keep hold of that positive

HSBC could rise for years from here in theory. Questor tipped them the other day I think. I wonder if this could match ftse generally though I'm not really that positive near term on the market this would seem to indicate Im wrong as usual :laugh:

Anyhow Im looking for HSBC below 670 to indicate a bigger sell off. Odds are it should rise from here so a failed pattern is allegedly bearish for the market overall I reckon.
To me this would greatly increase chances of ftse below 4800. But its not the most likely scenario so no worries



http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/fibonacci-retracements.html



Anyone like HER - a new silver mine?, wish I'd read on it earlier

2010.11.15 13:36: MANY OF YOU HAVE RAISED questions about my short SHORT-TERM BEARISH CALL in gold put forth in this article. Most of the objections you have raised have already been tackled in the 4th paragraph from the bottom in the article My $1320 target is for this year. Only a daily close above $1377 would re-awaken the short-term bull and likely trigger a fresh attempt above $1405.

http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/eurgbp-gold-aussie.asp

nomorerack

always check the stocks update and observe keenly....

worldtraveller

I was just looking at some of the banks share prices today, after the recent falls, compared to what they were at their peak level this year, after recovering from the "crash" in late 2008/early 2009:

RBS: -33%
LLOYDS: -21%
BARCLAYS: -32%
HSBC: -15%


Interesting when compared to the equity markets in general.

JamesU

worldtraveller wrote: »

Interesting when compared to the equity markets in general.

Looked into UK bank exposure to Irish debt some time ago, particularly RBS due to potential default risks on their RPI linked inflation bond. RBS has exposure to Irish debt in the region of 50 billion Euros and Lloy is in second place with at 20 billion Eur. Barc and HSBC far less.

JamesU