UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

blinko

the problem is the continued missing targets the markets make judgements on teh management and of course it makes it difficult to value

eg RNS and accounts

i dont think CEY will make year end targets but im expecting next year to be very good as they hit targets, as productions is streamlined and so far they have credability

BP i think will hit 520 but only when it starts paying divis again and ii buy in

but good luck

but again i don thitnkt hey will hit year end targets so i would expect a drop in SP

jimjames

blinko wrote: »

this QE was already factored into the price i believe, so lets see how we get on today in opening

asian markets were up infact if my screen is correct FTSE 5800

Close 5862. I'd still expect 6000 by end of the year

worldtraveller

HSBC reports slowdown in profits

Banking giant HSBC has reported lower profit growth in the third quarter and falling revenues in a further sign of a slowdown in the sector's bounceback.

HSBC also warned of easing growth in emerging markets, where the group generates a large slice of its profits.

But further falls in bad debts helped overall profits remain "well ahead" of a year earlier in the July-to-September quarter, although the bank did not provide detailed figures.

It said bad debts fell to their lowest levels since early 2007, before the credit crunch and financial crisis.

HSBC's update echoed those of its US and UK competitors as it said investment banking activity had slowed in the third quarter against an unusually strong performance in 2009.

PA

Royal Bank of Scotland in Q3 loss of £1.15 billion

Part-nationalized Royal Bank of Scotland says it fell back into the red in the third quarter with a net loss of £1.15 billion.

The bank said Friday that the loss was largely attributable to an £825 million charge to reflect a drop in protection under the government Asset Protection Scheme.

The charge wiped out an operating profit of £726 million.

RBS said impairments for bad loans declined 21 percent from the second quarter to £1.95 billion.

AP

blinko

jimjames wrote: »

Close 5862. I'd still expect 6000 by end of the year

my 5900 and gold ye 1400 looks silly now haha

but in saying that i would expect a correction at some point oince the eurphoria calms down

Shatners_Bassoon

Have a look at BMR and CREAT Resources for some good movement.

sabretoothtigger

Berkeley Mineral Resources Plc (BMR) is a United Kingdom-based mineral processing company. As of June 30, 2009, the Company was engaged in the extraction of zinc and lead from tailings dumps at the Kabwe mine in Zambia. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2009, the Company continued to market its voice quality technologies. The Company operates in two segments: minerals processing and voice technology.

Thats pretty unusual Chart looks to have broken out
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=BMR&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=we

Creat Resources Holdings Limited, formerly Zeehan Zinc Limited, is engaged in the business of exploration and mine development to extract minerals in Tasmania. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2009, the Company ceased its drilling activities on Comstock and Oceania properties. The Company’s subsidiaries include Oceania Tasmania Pty Limited, ZZ Exploration Pty Limited, Zeehan Zinc Administration Pty Limited and Zeehan Zinc Properties Pty Limited. On June 24, 2009, the Company announced the completion of Airborne Electromagnetic and Magnetic (EM) survey over the entirely of its licenses in Western Tasmania, Australia.

this one is in its range still i think http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON:CRHL


Dollar is off the floor here but euro likely still in an uptrend so markets still set positive

I decided to take a small interest in firstgroup as their chart looks good but not overblown and might even break up. I think they will do well enough to justify their nice dividend
Also not sure why Santander is cheaper apart from usual europe debt worries, they steadily improve their international growth standing every time I read of them and seem to do so in a controlled balanced way. My favourite of the banks I guess though stalking rbs some

BARC is top of its range which has been generally negative. XLF just now has broken upwards on some nice usa news, I forget what exactly but anyhow finance is the last sector to be pushed upwards


Volume is not helping to confirm this break upwards. I still rank this all as a wobbly move.
last of the bears hunts alone - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oaL51ch3wo&feature=player_embedded




Cey bought one of these to help with their mining. 1 million tons earth moved for a gram of gold apparently. seriously I dont believe so much in gold mines long term, thats not growth to me

cloud_dog

Linked in with my query on the XEL thread but......

A lot of stocks / indexes are at / near the top of their peaks from a couple of years ago. Are they about to re-bound lower or will all the additional QE2 etc continune to bouy stocks?

Additionally from a resource perspective the US$ appears to at / approaching critical support level. All credit for the linked chart to DavidTheGrim from iii (who frequently posts excellent TA on the CEY booard).

Thoughts........... Is the US$ likely to rebound (for a few weeks) and therefore are PMs / resources (and their associated stocks) likely to fall?

Edit: Blinko - DTG has also posted TA for CEY which you may find useful / re-affirming.

blinko

I expect indexes to continue upwards, the biggest threat i see at the moment is eurodebt, thats my main concern irish bond yields up !!! i expect this to increase pressure on the indexes and eventually after Qe2 has stopped will be intersting to see what americas next move is......there certainly cant be a QE3 !!

BMR has the contracts already been priced, what is the affect and waht are the contracts for excatly ?

WOW that tech anaylsis stuff is nice to have, but geez its beyond me commentary is good though, so its positive i have a target of 250 and will re-asses there

sabretoothtigger

How much gold will cey have to mine to be worth 250p

Thoughts........... Is the US$ likely to rebound (for a few weeks)

The USD chart just shows each low price has been slightly higher then the last and now we are due to bottom out again at the price around here. Seems fairly reasonable though US Dollars is a massive thing, we could be talking till middle of January before its clear one way or the other.

Also even if the chart is well drawn and basically visually sums up the underlying factors. What could happen is this multi year trend is proven not now true, it breaks and what we'd then see is a significant rush downwards.

All those people expecting US dollars to rise and then it doesnt, they sell/ Just like anything some people only own something just because everyone does, when they dont get whats expected they leave at varying speeds


Aside from TA if you are looking for Dollar strength then you are looking at either Euro weakness or Yen weakness. Nobody else much matters not china, its not included

China is looking to buy Portugal bonds much like they did with Greece who are having some elections now, socialism winning there?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85d8c5ec-e9d8-11df-9725-00144feab49a.html#axzz14cjsfKaN

Dollar vs Yen is overdue to rise alot if thats what you want to hear. Calculating forex is like voodoo, its right at the point of breakout though - been sideways for 3 weeks.




Main use to TA is to highlight when to pay attention and where.
Some guys dont even hold, they just use the TA and buy if it breaks up and sell if it goes down relying on that rush of momentum rather then the often unprofitable sideways direction more usual



http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns


On CEY he has drawn it as a Symmetrical triangle. So what happens is the price range gets smaller and smaller, even when it appears volatile like last week

We started the week at 175.4 and ended at 179.5 or 2.3% and its the closing price that matters more, its EOD range was pretty small

Seems a fair call

I would add that the long term chart is more important but CEY is bullish mostly.
I would compare CEY now to what it did last dec to jan. In january it did fall to 4 months lows, took a real whack.

Looking closer Jan's low price was similar to 2009 Sept high
And so now, the low price matches the highs from May. It cant be called weak, not from the chart anyhow


POG is alot messier I think

cloud_dog

Sabre, many thanks for your commentary.

As mentioned previously I like CEY (a lot) and also POG (I must enjoy the thrashing). POG really has to come good at some point. From a peer valuation perspective it should be at least 50% - 75% more, although they do keep shooting themselves in the foot.

Just a comment... FRES and HOC have both been doing remarkably well recently, probably following the trend in Ag atm.