UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Could call it luck in a way because there was some positive news to break the (short) sellers back, they give up easy. They may choose to repeat their actions at a higher price though which would make even harder selling more likely but its always hard to say

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f637db9a-fd45-11df-b83c-00144feab49a.html#axzz16sMahysX

EU will take actions it never has before which is to issue debt centrally as a proper unified state. I read a good article on USA vs Euro and why USA are more coordinated which counts for alot, this move reduces the difference. I think it is big news because bonds are more important then shares and EU bonds could rival USA.

Its only 8bn and USA is issuing 1tn in 12 months I think, but its the start of something different? Putin says Euro should take over from dollar as the worlds reserve currency, thats not so ridiculous but still I dont think so

1 trillion was the cost of all usa governments in total ever upto the Regan era. Obama will borrow then spend that much in the next year.
I favour the euro long term for sure comparatively.

Strongest riser I saw today was Banco Santander, yesterday it hit the bottom of its range. Going back to 2006, its been devaluing and this is a relative low for it.

Because its spanish (also Brazilian, etc) its subject to exchange rates which arent so rosy so maybe i will hedge that separately, I think the uk is much better off then most of europe on average, I like HMG latest tax rate cut and GSK big investment is a good sign I hope



Sold off some barc because I already hold enough. Kept RBS but not intending to hold it beyond this week so much. Lloyds also Im not as optimistic right now so I have none of that again, hope to collect some at 56p
I found a margin account to use without an interest charge I think its quite a good deal so used that recently to short sell some Hsbc as an offset

I bought back a tiny bit of AGK as halifax was offering zero commission, to partly correct my mistake of selling before they rose 60%. Just as a long term hold it might get cheaper but I think they are good global growth exposure

Nasdaq and tech have been the best performers recently I think. Japan outperforming, I noticed I have Canon held by 4 different funds - I guess their good



USA has to refinance 90% of their debt every 3 to 4 years I think it is. Imagine your mortgage term was 3 to 4 years and you had to find a new deal (and risk the rate change) or lose the house.
Same as subprime this is a clinton era policy change now coming to fruition, maybe it'll be ok, or not

Massive possibility for factors to switch opposite to how they are now imo. UK is 3rd largest holder of usa treasury debt


http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

ftse hits bottom - http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/228/img12912250660524512247.gif

lvader

One of my better predictions

Lets see if it lasts, I think we will get a good December for stocks with another reality check some time in January or February.

Barclays still has the Lehman Bros court case hanging over it. I think the likely worst case has already been priced in, the stock should rise once the doubts are gone. Investors don't like uncertainty.

lvader

Another great day for stocks, banks and miners doing very well again. I bought some Fres and LMI yesterday, it's always great to get off to a good start.

sabretoothtigger

Noticed EMED rose 20% yesterday. Not sure why but it was fairly cheap, cant really predict it.
Hence I only own a token amount in it


Standard chartered down recently on rising costs. Are these costs supported by growth potential, probably but the price going down anyway though its not especially lower then post rights

2.5% yield Questor says a low PE compared to the usual bloated emerging markets ratings. I think it might be worth having some, I sold mine a while back as its not very cheap.

Since then the market rose alot and it hasnt so much so relatively its looking better, might get some for longer term.
[will have to scale into stan and/or buy near 16.71 - it may never get there ]

Heard an estimate of 1387 SP500 today for 2011 target, its 1230 now. This is probably not unrealisitic though I see increasing worries, hopefully an opportunity to buy cheaper then now exists still


RRL flat but positive brooding. SKR rose like 20% and lost it all again just as quick, I dont own much as Im not sure

Banks still ok, looking to take some out of Barc if it can reach 280

I still see HSBC as negative but overall the market is going to go up and I'll probably be proven wrong
As long as it still looks possibly negative daily and it does then ftse is so so . 655 and closing below is the negative target
But watch out bears if it breaks up again, Im still net long as per the plan since 2009.




Added some CEY on its fall from grace. No good reason exactly, they raised cash with new shares issued - 5% so I got some more when it fell by 8%, an overreaction. Is the cash being used usefully or not?
Every time it vists near 160 Ive regretted not having a bit more, does look increasingly tired though

blinko

encore oil rig moving, i woudl expect this to creep up and have a mini boom as thedrill starts and test results come in

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Added some CEY on its fall from grace. No good reason exactly, they raised cash with new shares issued - 5% so I got some more when it fell by 8%, an overreaction. Is the cash being used usefully or not?

Every time it vists near 160 Ive regretted not having a bit more, does look increasingly tired though

The SP was believed to being held back because of the liner issue which has affected full year production figures and people (certainly PIs) were looking for some sort of confirmation from the company on production numbers since replacing the liners.

Whether those 'in the know' were also aware of the RI is another question. The RNS was very vague and state for working capital; which makes sense with the loss of income due to the liner / production issue, i.e. they have a business plan and with the loss of revenue you either scale back the plan or you get extra money to continue iwth the plan.

Speculation is rife that it could be for an aquisition (which I do not believe) or possibly adding to its acerage. There's always been this 'thing' around CEY being a one-trick-pony (even though the pony is prehistoric in sixe).

BTW, I also took the opp to add a few thousand more at 165.6.




Have to admit to feeling a little smug atm as I have done rather well with NYO. NYO is (hopefully) a early stage CEY.

Had been monitoring for ages but kept missing the boat or waited for a retrace which never came but, took the plunge with a few purchases at 17p, 17.6 and then 21.8p in early Nov. All looking good now.


EDIT: Just to balance the good with some good but could be great..... WTN now trading jsut shy of 750p (I sold out at 450p after a nice run)

blinko

sag liner issue has been resovled Nov3rd,
why they need 86m in working capital when they are revenue/profit generating is beyond me !!

especially when next year forecast 300,000 oz at assume average gold price of $1500 thats revneue of 450m amd the following year 500,000 again at 1500 thats 750m

they could've easily obtained a loan and issue 2.5% equity if really needed too especially as debt is cheaper than equity,

i dont doubt the management but slightly annoyed to the vagness of the operation, and why wasnt this offered to PI's

Q4 figures wont be know till at least mid Jan 2011 i will have a date for you begining of January

i dont belive they will be an aquisition target as they split profits 50/50 with egyptian government and as the first gold miner in egypt i dont think this will pelase the government, also who would take them over ? there is plenty of gold ou tthere to be found and again any takeover woiuld require 50% profit to be given to the government

although ironically 86m and gold price at average of 1400 does give 61,428 which is the required amount of prodcution to meet year end targets ???

cloud_dog

blinko wrote: »

sag liner issue has been resovled Nov3rd,
why they need 86m in working capital when they are revenue/profit generating is beyond me !!

Yes but, we're all assuming the sag liners are running at design perfromance. It would be nice just to have a confirmation of performance / throughput.

blinko wrote: »

especially when next year forecast 300,000 oz at assume average gold price of $1500 thats revneue of 450m amd the following year 500,000 again at 1500 thats 750m

Thats a pretty high average for the year to base a business plan on. Not saying it won't happen but I'm not sure I'd base a business plan on it.

blinko wrote: »

they could've easily obtained a loan and issue 2.5% equity if really needed too especially as debt is cheaper than equity,

i dont doubt the management but slightly annoyed to the vagness of the operation, and why wasnt this offered to PI's

Hense the speculation around what the vagueness might imply (if there is anything else to imply from it).

blinko wrote: »

Q4 figures wont be know till at least mid Jan 2011 i will have a date for you begining of January

I think I've read 23rd but unsure if this is a verified date.

blinko wrote: »

i dont belive they will be an aquisition target as they split profits 50/50 with egyptian government and as the first gold miner in egypt i dont think this will pelase the government, also who would take them over ? there is plenty of gold ou tthere to be found and again any takeover woiuld require 50% profit to be given to the government

No, I don't believe they are takeover target. The speculation was CEY approaching someone else (not something I buy in to).

I could see CEY being a takover target once the Egyptian government finalise their revised mineral royalty scheme. Whilst there are lots of gold mines out there, there hasn't been many with 10m+ Oz mines, and with the possibilty of more resources Sukari could end up being a 20m Oz mine.

blinko wrote: »

although ironically 86m and gold price at average of 1400 does give 61,428 which is the required amount of prodcution to meet year end targets ???

Which comes back to making up the lost cashflow so as to achieve the comminted business plan/spend this FY.

blinko

but they dont have any debts so unlikely to meet short term requirements, ist still a bit of a puzzle but i guess all we can do is wait till Q1, 2011 for 2010 y/e results

not sure on 23rd i spoke to the company and they didnt have a date.... but jan or beginning of feb is reasonable to assume a time frame for Q4 2010 results given we got Q3 2010 results end of Oct beginning of Nov

anyway i will probably pop some more in my ISA 168 looks like a support level, so I will try and grab some at that price

off topic so glad I sold 75% of my XEL holding at 314 SP has taken a bit of a beating......

cloud_dog

blinko wrote: »

but they dont have any debts so unlikely to meet short term requirements, ist still a bit of a puzzle but i guess all we can do is wait till Q1, 2011 for 2010 y/e results

If there is any basis in the speculation then I would like to think that we may get an RNS before the Q4 update but, who knows. Wouldn't have happened when Joseph was in charge, although we'll give the son a chance.