UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Spain seems to have lower debt and a lower deficit then the UK.
I have read UK has longer term debt which makes paying the bills less of a concern where as spain and greece need to issue (and have people buy ) its debt now and because they are in the Euro they cant pull the QE trick.
The ECB isnt nearly as chummy as our Mr King has been with Mr Brown's agenda

Overall this heightened fear does make rates even here more likely to rise which affects a few things including leveraged investment on stocks I guess


Im just wondering whats the chances we have a positive week now, I dont expect it to be simple but will mondays open be lower then fridays close


Just checking some of the funds I sold and pacific is down another 3% and others about 4% which Im glad I avoided but will have to start considering reinvestment of them as its not part of my strategy to be in cash.
International property ironically has fallen least and also invesco high income only lost another 2%.

Emerging markets lost the most which I guess is to be expected. I only have a small indian tracker now and they are still well above the summers valuations. Standard Chartered is at a similar level, they are ex div in early march I think

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Just checking some of the funds I sold and pacific is down another 3% and others about 4% which Im glad I avoided but will have to start considering reinvestment of them as its not part of my strategy to be in cash.

Interesting. I am happy to move strategically in to cash, after significant rise(s) and before identifying entry positions. The OH's SIPP has been at 100% cash for the last 6-8 six weeks.

I don't tend to trade the longer term investments very often but took the opportunity to lock in good gains for last year. I work on achieving a growth target per year (10% for SIPP) and then I look to lock in (sell a percentage) in order to protect the gains, whilst letting the remiander run. Obviosuly if my gains are not reaching the target then they all tend to stay 'in play'.

I suppose my philosophy is geared around minimising my loses and not so much in maximising my profits - something I learnt after the dot com bubble.

sabretoothtigger

The value of the pound vs the dollar dropped 2.619% in the last three days, its not really the safe place people think it is

I think prices have fallen enough to start buying something just not sure exactly, its not my aim to buy at the bottom.

Currency drop is about 4.5% since jan start and from july would show that difference also. That makes shares sold in pounds cheaper then thought I figure

Really I need to check pound index, as against the euro we are appreciating but dollar is best indicator in general

I suppose my philosophy is geared around minimising my loses and not so much in maximising my profits - something I learnt after the dot com bubble.

Sounds like a good strategy to me pension wise. I know someone who owned a tech fund at the height of the boom and held, however the tech fund was invested in major companies all of which are doing ok now still




Santander mulls £15bn float of British arm, reports

Last week the group sent jitters around the European banking sector as it made provisions of €9.48bn against 2009 earnings, 44% higher than 2008.

Generic loan-loss reserves came to €6.72bn, covering provisioning needs for 2010 and 2011. Santander still hit its its profit target in 2009, helped by a strong improvement by its UK operations. Net interest income jumped to €26.3bn from €20.95bn the year before while attributable profit to the group edged up to €8.94bn from €8.88bn in 2008.

http://www.digitallook.com/news/3267597/Santander_mulls_%C2%A315bn_float_of_British_arm_reports.html?

I'd rather have a bank with provisions then an 'optimistic forecast'



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrmX7C5D9IQ

http://wallstreet1928.ning.com/video/colts-daniel-muir-on-ben

tonygee_3

There WILL be buyers(better to buy in fear than euphoria)but theres a lot of tension so will be choppy as traders will be happy to settle for small profits rather than let it ride.
I feel theres another 20%+ fall in miners and a 5-10% on the FTSE,would make sense to drip feed across sectors or if you nervous wait till you think weve bottomed(risk losing potential 20%)

tonygee_3

I always retreat to cash if I feel conditions arent right,would rather reduce my profits than let them turn negative.Investors wrongly assume the cash is sat earning nothing but if you had sold BARC @ £4 then buy back @£2 and it returns to £4,the cash has earned 100%

tradetime

Very strong reversal on Friday, after exiting shorts I left buy orders in the market in the mid 1030's in case we overshot on the downside, but unfortunately they were not triggered, lows printed around 1041 on the futures.

Heavy volume particularly in the last two hours is suggestive that for now the downside may be halted and there is a swing reversal setup on the daily chart for Monday, however currently the stop loss necessary would represent too high a risk given how much rebound has already occurred. Subsequently I would have to adopt a neutral approach and look for the market to move into an area that would present a much lower risk entry, either long or short.
The market has support now from Fridays low, all the way down into the mid 1020's. First resistance is in the mid 1070's a break above that would lead to a challenge of the trendline down in the high 1080's

sabretoothtigger

SLV on friday went as low as 14.4 which could be the 14 target or as close as we'll get to it. The low was put in on slightly lower volume and rose back with everything else into the close

Gold is at a crossroads point, where it could breakout of its negative channel. Of course it could also fail in its attempt and fall and quite severely, a bit like the Cable scenario I posted up previously

Cable is actually looking quite negative. It did at one point break its trend of the last 5 days with a rise this morning but right now that has failed.
Really I would have at least expected 1.57 to occur sometime soon. Using cable as indicator for markets in general (UK is part of the sovereign risk fear movement tied to falling equities apparently) then I would say US dollar index is still quite bullish and a stocks recovery this week is still not certain.

All the same I should have bought HOC on friday, it was a reasonable gamble because of its price history it might not fall badly even if miners suffer again

I feel theres another 20%+ fall in miners and a 5-10% on the FTSE,would make sense to drip feed across sectors or if you nervous wait till you think weve bottomed(risk losing potential 20%)

I dont think we'll go right back up and its always too hard to say if the bottom has occurred or not but really it needs confirmation first

Xstrata resumes pay-out after 19 months

By Adam Jones
Published: February 8 2010 09:43 | Last updated: February 8 2010 09:43

Xstrata, the FTSE 100 mining group, said on Monday that it would start paying dividends again after a break of a year-and-a-half.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/131f0116-1485-11df-9ea1-00144feab49a.html

tonygee_3

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

All the same I should have bought HOC on friday, it was a reasonable gamble because of its price history it might not fall badly even if miners suffer again

Hindsight is wonderful,its not much higher so why not buy NOW?
Catching falling knives is only a reasonable gamble if youre a seasoned daytrader.

tradetime

Yes Silver showing some early strength, up over 2% in the early going, as to whether we have seen the lows of this move, no-one knows, I am inclined to think not, but that said there is no point for anyone other than a short term trader to be trying to pick those lows, for Silver I think scaling in represents a good play as I believe silver is good value here and am willing to take it on as a much longer term play. US$ managed to tag 80.82 intraday I am still looking for somewhere in the 81 - 82 area. Any maintenance of Dollar strength should pressure commodities. Concern remains over the unfortunately named PIIGS and that should continue to pressure the Euro, whilst Toyota's woes keep some pressure on the Yen.

FRES.L was up at a decent clip earlier, but I am reluctant to comment on individual mining companies, stock picking is not my strength.

cloud_dog

tradetime wrote: »

FRES.L was up at a decent clip earlier, but I am reluctant to comment on individual mining companies, stock picking is not my strength.

Its common for FRES to be volatile and have pretty large swings. It will often be up for most of the day (sometimes significantly) only to finish down. (and vice versa).