UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

Im being told FTSE is acting very bearish. Close below 5100 today would confirm this for me personally I think. Right now 5080 is quite a large failure it seems.

It still could go either way I think. Its really the difference between another short term duabi type worry and a larger adjustment.we havent seen since June July.


Silver could go either way, it could be $16 again without breaking any trend that I see. Really the us dollar needs to be weaker and its not, I think it might be being squeezed. Could go on another couple weeks before a conclusion occurs

By Nicholas Santiago on February 7th, 2010 2:57pm Eastern Time
The major indexes such as the SPDR Trust (NYSE:SPY), Diamonds Trust (NYSE dIA), Powershares QQQQ Trust (Nasdaq:QQQQ), and the IShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:IWM) have all had a high volume reversal on Friday February 5th 2010. This reversal took place in the final hour of the trading session and must be respected when looking out into next week.

There is something else that is also stands out about last Friday. It was the fourth negative week for the major indexes. The last time the stock market was down four weeks in a row was when the market made a short term top on June 11th and bottomed around July 8th before staging another rally. From this June 2009 high the point decline on the S&P 500 pullback to the low in July 2009 was around 87 points. This time the S&P 500 looks to have made a top in January 2010 and if a short term low was made on February 5th, 2010 which is 4 weeks in time the decline from high to close is about 84 points. While this decline it is not exact the markets remain very symmetrical and often do.

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) is another index that displays symmetry from the recent past. In February 2009 the GLD pulled back 9 weeks into mid April 2009. The decline for this ETF was about 14 points. Before the end of November 2009 the GLD made a recent top at just under 120.00 a share. Since that high the GLD has pulled back 10 weeks now for a decline of 14.86 points as of the close on February 5th, 2010. While the point decline it is not perfect it is important to notice the symmetry in time and price.

While there is no evidence yet of these lows in the markets holding up for the long term. However, they often do so at least in the short term. In many ancient text there is saying, 'as above so below'. Perhaps this is some evidence to the wisdom of the past. In any case watch those big reversal days.

Ascending triangle is bullish ? http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/3391/usdollarindexweeklychar.gif

tonygee wrote: »

Hindsight is wonderful,its not much higher so why not buy NOW?
Catching falling knives is only a reasonable gamble if youre a seasoned daytrader.

I dont like chasing the price but I could buy now at 253 as this is long term price resistance I think.

tradetime

Ascending triangle is bullish ? http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/3...weeklychar.gif

An ascending triangle is usually a continuation pattern when it occurs in an uptrend. Not sure where you are seeing an ascending triangle though.

turbobob

I believe an ascending triangle should have several touches of the top trend line to be valid. The implication is that the top of the pattern is where there is a standoff - bulls are not able to push the price any higher. The price touches resistance and goes down again.

sabretoothtigger

US dollar index has been sideways since 8am friday morning (on 4hr bars its flat). It did drop quite alot at first but then up (the low in silver price was here) and down since and about the same price now.

Probably needs to keep doing that like you say.
Right this moment people are seeing this resistance as a bullish thing (for stocks, etc) but its not really dropping and there is this uptrend line it seems so I just wonder if that means it could break out upwards.

I'd say its unlikely but if thats what the chart indicates then I guess its bad for market prices should it occur


Right this moment its testing the uptrend line again,

cloud_dog

cloud_dog wrote: »

Its common for FRES to be volatile and have pretty large swings. It will often be up for most of the day (sometimes significantly) only to finish down. (and vice versa).

Sheesh, shows what I know..... FRES opened up, stayed high and then almost finished at the day high. I think FRES just did it to show me up

sabretoothtigger

Its all about america, how could you know

Hers my latest crackpot theory / projection for gold. Failed breakout is bearish!





If you prefer words to silly charts, this story would be bullish I guess -

New post: Two Hedge Funds One Bank? Is There A Concerted Effort To "Destroy" Greece?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/two-hedge-funds-one-bank-there-concerted-effort-destroy-greece

DJ London Silver Fixing Details

Current Previous

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USD 1520.00 1514.00
GBP 975.30 972.38
EUR 1108.28 1107.94

Source: Thomson Reuters

February 09, 2010 07:07 ET (12:07 GMT)

cloud_dog

Wow, a whole 24 hours without somone posting something. I take it we're all wating to see which way things go.

Jut a point of interest.... Considering both HOC and FRES are primary Ag producers its strange how their SP's have diverged recently, FRES going up and HOC sliding down.

Wobblydeb

cloud_dog wrote: »

Wow, a whole 24 hours without somone posting something. I take it we're all wating to see which way things go.

Jut a point of interest.... Considering both HOC and FRES are primary Ag producers its strange how their SP's have diverged recently, FRES going up and HOC sliding down.

I am watching and waiting. Since starting to invest last year, I've learnt a few lessons on the emotional side, and actually have a bit of money sat in my S&S ISA in cash at the moment. In months gone by it would have eaten a hole in my pocket until I'd spent it on one share or another.

Learnt my lesson though, and think that there is the potential for quite a fall. I'd rather be around to pick up the bargains if it happens

As for HOC .... its on my watchlist ... which is probably why its taken a bit of a dive. Thus far, I seem to be the harbinger of doom to each company I invest in. HOC must have got wind of my interest.... The one thing stopping me is their reliance on silver (versus FRES? not sure how much silver they produce) and forward selling - perhaps giving other PIs pause for thought too?

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

Jut a point of interest.... Considering both HOC and FRES are primary Ag producers its strange how their SP's have diverged recently, FRES going up and HOC sliding down.

Yes, had noticed that, but then that is one of the quirks of dealing in commodity related companies rather than the commodity itself. It's one of the things that gives me pause when considering companies, I am not a stock picker so I just added to SLV instead.

Market essentially in no mans land, waiting for some trigger, got resistance from the top of the current down channel at about 1080, then more significant resistance at 1100-1105 and it would take a pass of 1115 to get me all bullish again. There is a fair amount of support below, and unless there is some major crisis that comes out of left field I am inclined to think that this correction, should we see a further leg is limited to 1020 ish.

sabretoothtigger

Im not sure what the news will be but I think this has further to go. If we dont fall further then we need to go sideways for a while to prove the previous negative trend is broken and right now that has not happened.


On the positive side we got the 1.57 on cable I had anticipated and this corresponded to weakness in the dollar index and positive markets.

There is still negative trends in play but dollar index does appear pretty weak for now, however Im a bit uncertain hence Im relying on cable as an indicator because its clearer to me.
Cable is in a negative trend (but has space right now to rise near 1.59) so I have to conclude USD could be still be bullish

The one thing stopping me is their reliance on silver (versus FRES? not sure how much silver they produce) and forward selling - perhaps giving other PIs pause for thought too?

I read Hoc's report from January and it seemed like good stuff. No doubt they wrote it that way on purpose but I agree with them hedging the price and the way they did it. I like it when companies actively manage like that because it does give an advantage over just plain commodity to have people anticipating negative scenarios

They set a options collar on silver price in order to maintain cashflow. Good thing to do I'd say and it cost them little as silver did not exceed their top price of $19 by much for very long and they ok (relatively) if silver price keeps falling.

Also they only hedged some of their production, enough to ensure they dont go broke. It'd be ironic if a gold and silver miner could not sensibly finance themselves and their expansion but my general opinion was pretty positive on lots of their decisions from power generation to phosphates I like the prospects, longer term at least


Im not sure if silver price will hold or not as Im not sure of the bottom exactly but decided it was a reasonable investment and hedge for me as Im mostly not in the market right now




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