UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

Some of Africa may pop up in anything labeled "Frontier Markets"

blinko

thanks chaps

tradetime

blinko wrote: »

can anyone help me, im looking for exposure to africa and latin america ideally via unit trusts/investment trust etc

i have an accounta t with hargreaves lansdown

if anyone has any recommendations that would be great thanks

Quick look around, and this is not a recommendation, I have no idea what the performance of these funds are, but gives you perhaps an idea of what's available.
http://www.franklintempleton.co.uk/ft/funddetails?fundNumber=0804

http://www.franklintempleton.co.uk/ft/funddetails?fundNumber=1019

This frontier fund doesn't have much exposure to Africa, but again gives you an idea.

If you have access to US listed exchanges there is an Africa ETF (AFK) managed by Van Eck Global, commonly referred to as Market Vectors family. Looks a little thinly traded as one might imagine which is giving it about 0.5% spread currently on my screen.

sabretoothtigger

^^ I was just looking at some templeton funds over the weekend, Mark Mobius runs a couple I think and they have been recommended by Questor also.
Only problem is the annual charge seems pretty high to me, since Im used to alot less but I need to investigate which I prefer, small company emerging global looks good on first glance





My view of the FTSE has last weeks close as being negative on a weekly basis. We're outside the March rally trend and further confirmation would come from a fall overall this week.





The two green bars show two positive weekly gains so far but the index falling out of the trend should show as a negative bias in future - thats the theory anyway so have to see how it pans out.
Last time I saw a break of trend on the daily around 5500, it was significant



Positive news for Silver is we appear to have broken the negative trend of the last few weeks but I dont know how important LME is compared to COMEX so since USA is closed today this really needs confirmation tomorrow.

tradetime

Another bear flag on the S&P points to 1020's. We have a sequence of support levels, recent lows in the 1040's, 1030's, 1020's 1000 and ultimately 950's. The 200 day sma currently comes in at 1024. Last weeks action saw 1080 hold as short term resistance, above that I would look for 1105 to hold.
Sentiment has turned overwhelmingly bearish in the last week or so. I have even seen a 1000 Dow prediction, though I have to believe that's just someone looking for air time. Bearish sentiment was the backdrop for the 60% rally last year, but that was against a bullish technical backdrop which is absent currently. US$ continues to target the 81-82 level with 81.3 as roughly the target of the bull flag, this is likely to be aided by the Euro's catch 22 position, the threat of a PIIGS default will pressure it, whilst any bailout would also pressure it.
Currently we are in the middle of the Presidents day weekend, normal trading on US markets resumes tomorrow.

Seems we are reading a similar story STT. I do think over a longer term this is probably presenting a long awaited buying opportunity for those who invest, but there will likely also be a lot of uncertainty to go along with that.

turbobob

tradetime wrote: »

Sentiment has turned overwhelmingly bearish in the last week or so. I have even seen a 1000 Dow prediction, though I have to believe that's just someone looking for air time.

I think I saw the same "prediction" - http://www.longwavegroup.com/news/2010/100212_BloombergTV.htm

tradetime

Yup, that's the outfit, based around kondratiev waves. I tend to think wild predictions like that are more about headline making than anything else.

tonygee_3

Last year was TOO easy to make money,reality now kicking in.Only way to make money THIS year will be trading,short term,yes..unfortunately you will have to WORK for your money.
As for DOW 1000,this crackpot has had his 5minutes,no doubt there will be more

tradetime

Yup I'd agree, I think the DOW 1000 level itself is simply to out do David Tice a bear market analyst who works for Federated, he has called for DOW 4000 since before we hit the March bottom and maintains that stance, obviously to steal his thunder, you'd actually have to call a number substantially below that, and I think that's what we have here, though I haven't seen the maths for this projection. Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave also has a very low bottom target for indices. Those sort of projections are all well outside how far out I would feel there was any point trying to project. Where the market will be at year end, for example, has no bearing on what I am trading, none whatsoever.

As to making money, I'd have to agree, it was pretty hard not to make money last year, especially for the most basic approaches, the old concept that many new people in the market try to employ of simply doubling down would have worked a treat if implemented with the most basic understanding. On the other hand, those who had learnt to short, but perhaps not when to short were likely hammered. The market is a patient adversary, anyone who has made money, at least in the majority of cases, will come back, it is the nature of gambling. Making money will be harder going forwards and the market will settle some scores.

bobbyj_2

yes it's scalping all the way this year for me. Got a few smallcap miners but the rest will be ISA trades. Volumes pitiful as well and have been for weeks now.