UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

Same for silver, I think $12 is a but low, I think more like $14

I dont know if Fres could buy Hoc I need to do more reading on them both really, I thought we'd take more time to drop then this

Cheers for that, I know FRES has been active in trying to acquire assets, so might be a consideration, re HOC, but as I say I know nothing about stocks.

Silver yes, estimation based on it being able to maintain momentum, the fact that it is a lot more volatile than gold, and there is likely a reasonable amount os weak speculative money to be shaken out of both gold and silver. The fly in the ointment, as it were, all this rising fear over European debt, more than inflation, precious metals thrive on fear.

Hehe that looks like Art Cashin, he's been calling bear rally almost all the way up last year, maybe he gave up and missed the turn.

tradetime

By the way, your $14 level for Silver would be a 50% retrace from the Oct 08 low to recent high, $13.95 so certainly a level to watch.

sabretoothtigger

SLV has low volume leading upto 14 which could be weakness. GLD on the other hand has high volume at 1000. POG.l is at resistance now I think, its yielding 1.6% apparently






Bottom of a channel for silver contract here which matches Dollar which has topped out in its channel and could fall some while remaining bullish overall





So silver could rise here but top of the channel would coincide with previous volume resistance also at $16 also.
Hoc is at a reasonable place to buy but Im going to pass for the moment though I may regret it later if this should turn out to be the bottom which is always possible.

Hoc is basically funded by my ftse short and Im not certain about cancelling that yet so I probably wait for monday, etc Strictly speaking 'the plan' means I should buy this about now but



http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2010/1/30_Ted_Butler_on_the_Metals_Market_files/Metals%20Wrap%20Ted%20Butler%201%3A30%3A2010.mp3


http://www.livinginperu.com/business-1149-industrymining-an-interview-with-eduardo-hochschild

cloud_dog

tradetime wrote: »

.... I know FRES has been active in trying to acquire assets, so might be a consideration, re HOC, but as I say I know nothing about stocks.

TT as you may know FRES pulled out of buying Canplats (bidding up against Gold Corp) earlier in January and are still on the M&A trail although, the Canplats deal was only worth about £150m GBP in cash and HOC is valued at about £1b GBP, so not sure if they would need ti underwrite th transaction somehow.

The other reason I don't feel HOC is a candidate is that FRES are actively looking for good properties in and around their existing projects (Mexico) and HOC only has one property in Mexico (which is quite a small Ag producer - unsure of exact state of this mine, i.e .recent start up etc) and a number in Peru (primarilly) and Argentina.

I think HOC is a good Ag play in its own right (well thats my thoughts anyway).

sabretoothtigger

Sounds like some good info, do you think Fres could near 550 again if we did get to $14 on silver I figure these stocks have to fall if the commodity does, they are on puppet strings


Tony mentioned 'cheap stocks', Santander BNC is cheaper then it was in July. Nice high yield, operates in south america. One of the better banks I think and theres also Standard chartered though some may consider that expensive ( I dont)


If I had known prices would fall so unilaterally I would have sold to rebuy obviously, hindsight!

tradetime

Yes hindsight is always 20 / 20

Santander may well be good value, could just be a case of baby out with bathwater, being unfairly punished because it's Spanish, amid fears over Spain's position.

FRES I will have a look at chart a little later and post back what I think re 550 access to that program on another machine

tonygee_3

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Tony mentioned 'cheap stocks', Santander BNC is cheaper then it was in July. Nice high yield, operates in south america. One of the better banks I think and theres also Standard chartered though some may consider that expensive ( I dont)
If I had known prices would fall so unilaterally I would have sold to rebuy obviously, hindsight!

Big concerns over SPAIN/Portugal so avoid SANTANDER at moment

I did post a couple of months ago to expect a BIG correction in JANUARY and avoid MINERS

sabretoothtigger

Theres was concerns about spain when I bought them last. I figure they are diversified enough and well capitalised.
They operate each subsidiary separately I believe.

I was more concerned that they increased their holding in america but at least this was done after the crisis was apparent and not at top dollar. I bought when they assured shareholders no further investment usa would be made.
Their IPO of the Brazilian division demonstrates their good sense to make hay while the sun shines


They yield so much I might double up my holding but Im a bit unprepared

MATERIAL FACT


Banco Santander, S.A. hereby announces the payment of a fourth dividend for the 2009 financial year of a gross amount of €0.221826 per share, to be paid in cash from 1st May next. With the payment of this dividend (which if the proposal to be submitted to shareholders at the General Meeting is approved, will be the last), the payment per share corresponding to 2009 will be €0.60, the total amount to be paid to shareholders being €4,918.6 million, which is 2.2% more than the €4,812.3 million paid as dividends on the 2008 earnings. On Monday 3rd May the Bank's share will already trade ex-dividend.



Boadilla del Monte (Madrid), 4th February 2010


http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Markets&article_id=10077110

I just realised everything I bought in recent months hasnt really fallen much. HDY, HYC already were pretty low prices and I dont see them falling so far at least. Barc and lloy really are holding the same price ranges they had previously. At least I got that bit right, POG and CEY 12% down are pretty awful but thats a given with gold stocks and it could be worse

tradetime

STT as best I can see the $14 level for Silver would be consistent with a price of about 550 - 570, though it's very difficult to draw a confident tradable conclusion due to the fact that a stock is often much more volatile than the corresponding commodity, but I do think 550 is achievable if silver trades at $13.90, Fib suggests 513.

The $12 Silver area would be consistent with FRES in the mid 400's, Fib suggests 414 62% retrace But I've never tried to analyze a stock price in relation to the underlying commodity like this before, clearly there would be some correlation, but how accurate that would be, I honestly don't know

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

TT as you may know FRES pulled out of buying Canplats (bidding up against Gold Corp) earlier in January and are still on the M&A trail although, the Canplats deal was only worth about £150m GBP in cash and HOC is valued at about £1b GBP, so not sure if they would need ti underwrite th transaction somehow.

The other reason I don't feel HOC is a candidate is that FRES are actively looking for good properties in and around their existing projects (Mexico) and HOC only has one property in Mexico (which is quite a small Ag producer - unsure of exact state of this mine, i.e .recent start up etc) and a number in Peru (primarilly) and Argentina.

I think HOC is a good Ag play in its own right (well thats my thoughts anyway).

Thanx cloud-dog, yes I had read about the fight over Canplats, good info, HOC may be too pricey for anything other than perhaps a strategic merger, and have no idea what that would do for either stock. Just wondered because their have been quite a bit of M&A activity in the space already and I'm sure there will be more.