UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

XOM recently rose on its results

XOM are also laying out their store to become a major player in the shale gas story, which is likely to become a big issue in the years to come.

sabretoothtigger

its all just a theory, an open mind is best I agree


Another guys view from earlier in this year, he will be relating currency to bonds both of which are more important then shares to the best of my knowledge. Which makes them good indicators (of money flow) I reckon

tradetime

Dennis Gartman (he of the Gartman Letter) is a big believer in a correlation between EUR/YEN to equities, but I can't remember the specifics at the moment

StevieJ

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I keep seeing BP tipped after it fell back. Sounds good but glad to hear someones buying RDSB as I have some of that.
Both have nice dividends but I wouldnt be surprised if BP was the better performing short term as Shell was later to reorganise and has a longer term strategy based more on Gas I think



XOM recently rose on its results

Shell recently provided an advisory expectations dampener to the analysts so the share price took a hit at that point, looking for 2.9 billion tomorrow I think.

tonygee_3

Bought a bit of LSE this morning(took a beating since DUBAI news)
Avoiding Media,Defence,Property,Construction
Looking for falls in Income shares for the time being
Anyone else buying,or just watching??
Yes,RDSB forewarned market hence recent weakness,hope nothing TOO shocking revealed tomorrow,markets stalling again

tonygee_3

Still looking skyward,Trade?Past few days show it is impossible to gauge short term(daily)movements,may as well toss a coin.You said plummet,market rockets,You say all systems go,market sinks?
Investing(longer term) means you can be still be wrong but eventually you will be right(hopefully)
Tonys message of the day;)

sabretoothtigger

I dont think its going to reverse right back just like that, hopefully we arent that erratic just yet because that'd indicate rough seas ahead I would guess.

Its reasonable for the market to consolidate, go sideways before moving in either direction. This weeks retrace in itself is a confirmation of the bigger down movement possibly, people buy in and get disappointed and then we go down even lower and so on


Cable did not break out of its negative channel, its been negative the whole day since I posted.
This matches the more important dollar index which has retraced its own recent trend failure and been positive the whole day but again it has met some resistance now ,hence equities could still be positive in future




Anyhow heres a couple of bearish articles - http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/investing-strategy/2010/01/28/the-warning-sign-pointing-to-a-20-drop.aspx

Faber - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EojwPDfvV-M&feature=sub

A 20% drop on the ftse would bring about 4500 which I think is more negative then most people suppose . It'd be a retrace of the rally since July and it could then rise back on from then on, so it'd be healthy really



Ive also been told to watch volume, lower volume then average often means higher prices http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SPY





Ive read about LSE, as a higher yield stock they have some interest.
I dont consider them a reasonable investment because I think their prospects could be declining longer term from greater competition on many different exchanges.

They recently reported lower volumes since 2008, this whole rally has been built on receding volumes so that figures. Also people will be able to trade bonds on the LSE soon apparently which seems a smart move.

Ive no idea if they are worth buying as a recovery play, sounds good though. Hyder have business in Dubai and have not really risen since



I noticed Barclays have reduced their holding in LCG, a gambling stock and IGG fell 4% today off its peak pricing. It had been rising during this recent decline, it could just be they had gone ex div on the 27th Jan I guess

Anyone else buying,or just watching??

I will probably skip any buying for the moment, everything is in a bit of a flux. Selling a couple things on any higher prices hopefully. SP500 is still following a trend up at the moment

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

Still looking skyward,Trade?Past few days show it is impossible to gauge short term(daily)movements,may as well toss a coin.You said plummet,market rockets,You say all systems go,market sinks?
Investing(longer term) means you can be still be wrong but eventually you will be right(hopefully)
Tonys message of the day;)

LOL Tony, covered a few points there so let me take your "message of the day" one point at a time.

tradetime wrote: »

Many bears are already conceding this battle and looking forwards to a potential double top in the 1150 area, which would make me look towards the sky if we get up that far.

So, no, unless we slipped up to 1150 while I wasn't looking, I'm not looking skyward yet mate, though my bias on the day was bullish.I'll assume you just mis-read that.

Now I know, or think I know, from various posts that you're not really a fan of technical analysis. That's cool, it's obviously not for you. There are others here who likely just don't know what to make of it. So for the benefit of those with an open mind, who might be willing to put in the study to make use of it I'll say what I've said before, and as a smart guy you already know, as do I'm sure just about everybody reading this does, but I'll say it anyway,

There is no way anyone can know for sure where the markets are going from one day to the next, with any certainty, for anyone who might think there is a way just waiting for them to stumble on it, I'm sorry there isn't.

So what's technical analysis for? To look clever answering polls? No, it won't do that, at least not very often, and there will always be someone there looking to score points when you are wrong, and you will be wrong often.
There may be a lot of answers to that depending on who you are.

For a trader, it is to arrive at a trade-able conclusion that is both high probability and low risk.

So, "the past few days" start with today I guess. Bias, bullish

tradetime wrote: »

traders will look to buy dips here, a pullback into the mid 1090's would offer a buying opp.

Pullback into mid 1090's was expected, whether the market was to go higher or not as market was ultra short term very overbought.

tradetime wrote: »

if the wheels were to come off 1085 should now provide support for a bulls regroup

So you have a buy dip scenario, and an absolute stop, from the day before I gave two targets, which I'll cover next. So market opened gap down 1097ish, close to the buy zone, if you are an aggressive trader, more leisurely / cautious then let the first 30 mins settle, after a pop to fill the gap we set a low at 1095 and 1094, in the buy zone, Now even if you were the laziest trader on the planet, and couldn't be arsed taking the 1100 in a rough market exit, you could have exited on the close @ 1097. Those are cash prices (Futures give a little better range, there were 7 handles on offer there) If smart you took at least half at the 7 handles, as it was never looking like we were going to take out the resistance level then you got to re-enter @ 1095ish with a meer 1.5 point stop, so negligible risk and your currently back at 1100 and exiting.
I said there was a good chance we test 1115 today, so I was wrong, sue me The really cool thing, since it's not about impressing people by hitting exact numbers, is even being wrong doesn't mean you can't secure a profit, all the info was there for a profitable trade, at the end of the day, that's all that counts.

Previous day........

tradetime wrote: »

Based on y'days action I am once again undecided on the intermediate term, short term we are in no-mans land, breaking the initial downtrend albeit a very steep one we are either bouncing or reversing, there is no way, for me anyway, to determine that until we cross 1115, that was the last major support / resistance line. Today we should likely test 1105 area as first resistance, if the bounce is weak or we find sellers, we head back down to look for more buyers, if the bounce remains strong then we should arrive at 1115 Wed or Thur, if we cross that level then 1150's previous high is the target.

Whilst my longer term view is undecided as explained, and indeed remains that way, we have not crossed 1115 yet.
The bias for the day, bullish
Market opened gap up 1090, pulled back to fill the gap, fairly safe buy at 1088 - 1089 as it bases here over the first 30 mins, market rallies all day, closes at 1103. Don't really need to tell anyone how to manage that I trust.

...and in the interests of fairness, at the risk of boring everyone to tears, one last day, the day before that.

tradetime wrote: »

Currently US futures would indicate a small bounce on US markets S&P in the realm of 5-6 points (@ 1079 -1080 cash price equivalent) which would be inline with a +60 on the Dow, I am looking to short this bounce intraday somewhere above 1080 into 1085, should we get there.

Bias was still bearish from the previous weeks sell-off
Market opened gap up around 1080 and rallied hard, first decent sell opp was @ 1086, stop over 1090 so risk low, then we just traded in a slow upward range, that allowed for scaling in and out of half the position to lower the risk further.which eventually led to..

tradetime wrote: »

Looks about right STT

Choppy narrow range, not a particularly productive day, managed a few scalps playing what little range there is to buy some leeway in my main position, but have now just exited that as well at b/e so am flat now. 1085 area has been under constant attack all day so far and we could break either way into the close,

So that didn't work, but still fulfilled the requirement of a low risk trade, why would I call it high probability, we have had a week of selling, you are trading with the dominant trend and 1085 is a resistance area.

Nothing works all the time, it can't, or it would be easy and then everybody would do it, and they can't

Someone, Turbobob I think mentioned poker, I'll leave you with this thought for any poker players. There is something like a 220:1 probability against being dealt a pair of Aces in the pocket. Holding such, pre-flop you are about an 87% chance to win against any unpaired, unsuited, non connectors, and you can still lose. Will that fact stop anyone betting Aces?

Apologies for the long post, but hopefully someone will find it useful a insight.

tonygee_3

My message(aimed at any newbies reading)is Dont consider very short term trades,as you say Trade no one knows with any certainty,so why try?
For me the beauty of the markets(as opposed to other gambling/investing)is you dont have to be right today,tomorrow,next week and so on,as long as you are right one day.Bit like backing a horse in a race with no specified distance,you will inevitably hit the front at some point.
As a daytrader you HAVE to get it right in your short timeframe;)

tonygee_3

tonygee wrote: »

Not convinced we'll see a BIG bounce or would have bought some miners/banks
Think more downsides than up at the moment with those

These taking a pounding as I expected
Are you still holding YELL Steve?
Not a massive jump today but a jumps a jump;)