UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

Tradetime you always seem bullish but are you playing or just happy to observe?

Hi Tony I've been largely bullish since shortly after the March bottom yes, but have recently turned bearish, where I will remain until we cross and hold 1115 or find support lower down.
Currently I am selling rallies, intraday. Technicals are bearish, but oversold, and I find it hard to believe that the US is not supporting the markets in a more active roll than just printing money (but I can't trade that, because it's just a theory and like all conspiracy theories probably wrong ) So I refrain from anything on the short side longer term.

tradetime

S&P so far down about 7% from the highs, if the 1040 target gets hit we will be down close to 10% which would be a good point to reassess..

FTSE down roughly 8% from the highs, failed to retake the 5200 level as expected, there was a big reversal day 27/11 last year which had a low of 5080, otherwise 5000 is most likely the next target which would be close to 11%

Silver held up quite well considering the US$ strength as did gold. Looking for silver to target $15.25, we are however on a support level here on both 1075 for gold and 16.20 for silver, see what next week brings.

tradetime

The SPX Bear flag (in red) referred to above. Vertical black line represents the measured move, for anyone who is interested.

uk_steve

tonygee wrote: »

Tradetime you always seem bullish but are you playing or just happy to observe?
Is kittie on holiday..or has she got tin hat on behind sofa;)

:rotfl:Thats just my sence of humor that:T

sabretoothtigger

You see the bottom as 1048 for the moment tradetime? Ive seen people do this with head and shoulders formation, the size of the M is how far it breaks out in one direction

It worked quite well with gold before it then reversed back down again!






I noticed on friday Goldman sachs is back to 148 which is the same price we were discussing back in July before this rally


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/31/opinion/31volcker.html?pagewanted=1&hp



Silver trend failure on higher volume to parallel golds decline - http://fsc.bz/2tA

tradetime

You see the bottom as 1048 for the moment tradetime? Ive seen people do this with head and shoulders formation, the size of the M is how far it breaks out in one direction

Hi STT, it is simply the measured move from that pattern formation. All formations in technical analysis will produce a measured move projection, calling it a bottom would be a bit premature, they are simply calculated as an aid in trade management and determining risk reward parameters for a given trade. Or set of trades.

tonygee_3

IG has the DOW opening +60,hence FTSE stable.
(Although IG not reliable indicator)
US calling shots,interesting you calling Lower,trade(as resident US Expert)
Think DOW 10000 will be a big barrier,but if broken...who knows?
Back to FTSE...similarly 5000 would be major obstacle..my likely entry?

magpiejay

If you guys are into technicals, there's a guy on iii called Remo who you have probably come across. He has a friendly private board called 'charts view' (details on how to join under his profile page) where fellow chartists compare notes on emerging patterns. Still mostly beyond me, but fascinating and their trend spotting has helped me pick some great entry points on some stocks.

tradetime

Currently US futures would indicate a small bounce on US markets S&P in the realm of 5-6 points (@ 1079 -1080 cash price equivalent) which would be inline with a +60 on the Dow, I am looking to short this bounce intraday somewhere above 1080 into 1085, should we get there.

sabretoothtigger

I have 1088 as the trend highs tradetime which is right now, not sure if it'll simply fall back or try to breakout upwards a bit.
I'll wait for it to go sideways in the next hour or so and confirm this trend line.

109 on the SPY, not far up from here is the 5 day moving average price. It needs to be above this to be a positive market really. 108.86 right now