UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

I have 1088 as the trend highs tradetime

Looks about right STT

Choppy narrow range, not a particularly productive day, managed a few scalps playing what little range there is to buy some leeway in my main position, but have now just exited that as well at b/e so am flat now. 1085 area has been under constant attack all day so far and we could break either way into the close,

tradetime

Looking for a test of the 1105 area today S&P, on the way to a reversal of the correction with a break and hold above 1115. FTSE as best I can see would likely test the 5390 - 5400 area in line with the S&P 1115
Market was very oversold in the short term, so whether this is just a bounce or an end of the correction remains to be seen.

tonygee_3

Sounds like youve completely changed heart,Trade,dont suppose you applied youre short then??
If you can make money daytrading indices,US being most difficult,youre a better man than me.Like roulette or heads/tails.As Buffet says daytrading is taking from the impatient and giving to the patient(something on those lines)

tonygee_3

Bought RDSB(kitties favourite) on BP weakness,Div this week
BRE Div next month
Not convinced we'll see a BIG bounce or would have bought some miners/banks
Think more downsides than up at the moment with those

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

Sounds like youve completely changed heart,Trade,dont suppose you applied youre short then??
If you can make money daytrading indices,US being most difficult,youre a better man than me.Like roulette or heads/tails.As Buffet says daytrading is taking from the impatient and giving to the patient(something on those lines)

Hi Tony, yes got short y'day intraday as per Post #1492, but market internals stayed very strong, scalped some trades around the range for a few crumbs and abandoned the main trade going into the final hour. In trading when you're wrong you have to be able to back down or the market will eat you alive. As I said previously, I have a conspiracy theory, which whilst I can't trade such a thing, it puts me off trading longer term short trades at the moment.
Risk / reward of the trade was reasonable, a fully loaded trade would have had an average price in (using cash index values) of 1084, stop above 1089 and target of the lows @ 1072. So about a 5.5 point risk for a 12 point profit.

Based on y'days action I am once again undecided on the intermediate term, short term we are in no-mans land, breaking the initial downtrend albeit a very steep one we are either bouncing or reversing, there is no way, for me anyway, to determine that until we cross 1115, that was the last major support / resistance line. Today we should likely test 1105 area as first resistance, if the bounce is weak or we find sellers, we head back down to look for more buyers, if the bounce remains strong then we should arrive at 1115 Wed or Thur, if we cross that level then 1150's previous high is the target.

There's probably a lot of truth in what Buffet says although a little simplified and skewed towards the investors view, as in a statement like that, from him, I would assume the "the patient" are investors.
Short term trading is nothing more than a numbers game, probabilities, risk and reward, and it really doesn't matter what timeframe you operate in, be it within a single day or over a number of days or weeks. If I were to sum it up in a few words, I'd say it's all about discipline, risk management, and timing.. The principles are simple, it's the application of them that causes all the problems.

turbobob

tradetime wrote: »

There's probably a lot of truth in what Buffet says although a little simplified and skewed towards the investors view, as in a statement like that, from him, I would assume the "the patient" are investors.

Short term trading is nothing more than a numbers game, probabilities, risk and reward, and it really doesn't matter what timeframe you operate in, be it within a single day or over a number of days or weeks. If I were to sum it up in a few words, I'd say it's all about discipline, risk management, and timing.. The principles are simple, it's the application of them that causes all the problems.

Something I heard recently was that short term trading has a lot in common with poker. The best poker players follow a system which they believe gives them an edge but still the cards can be stacked against you. Knowing when to fold is critical. Amateurs on the other hand will keep piling their money in until they lose their shirt.

Buffett's/Benjamin Grahams' idea of "Mr Market" is probably a good one for investors.

cloud_dog

Well, CZA got their unconditional New Order Mining Rights for Vele and closed 23% up (yipee).

Coal has been strong(ish) during this recent 'correction' with both CZA and WTN standing up quite well.

Will expect some profit taking from CZA but they have so many plusses stacked in their favour and a CEO who doesn't over-promise.

EDIT: TT touched on it a few posts ago but I am weighing up options for selling in to this strength. Will have to see what unfolds.

JoeCrystal

Hmm, so that why GCM jumped 13.33% today. I believed they own 4% stake in CZA. Good news I guess.

tradetime

Approaching 38% retrace of the move down, and just a few points shy of 1105 level. Actual level is 1103 - 1105, getting quite overbought now in the very short term, but markets very bullish

cloud_dog

TT / STT, or any other TA people out there, any chance someone could have a look at KMR.

They've not really followed the very recent rises but the chart appears to be / has formed a 'Flag' (continuation pattern) from 10th Jan (so last 3 weeks).

My need for a second opinion stems mainly from volume, as I understand it the flag pole should really be driven by high volume which is some what lacking.

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