UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

My message(aimed at any newbies reading)is Dont consider very short term trades,as you say Trade no one knows with any certainty,so why try?
For me the beauty of the markets(as opposed to other gambling/investing)is you dont have to be right today,tomorrow,next week and so on,as long as you are right one day.Bit like backing a horse in a race with no specified distance,you will inevitably hit the front at some point.
As a daytrader you HAVE to get it right in your short timeframe;)

I know what you mean, and fwiw daytrading isn't for everybody, it can be a very quick road to the poorhouse, I don't know if it is worth doing, unless you are doing it for a living, and then you better get it right.

sabretoothtigger

The big leveraged traders are what make this market so spiky, they have to sell all the time. It must be the long term holders who matter most surely because those traders are selling to each other most of the time


Shell fell today but its no worse then the price on Tuesday so I think the price after ex-div will tell more about where its heading


Dollar is bullish again, we do have big news approaching today and tomorrow. BOE QE is announced at midday, etc

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

[strike]Im starting to wonder if the recent SP500 low was the bottom for now. The reason being it was the trend low to match March and July.

Cable is forming a W formation maybe, I dont know if that applies well to currencies but either it falls today onwards in value or we see a channel breakout in worth of the pound vs dollar.

This would match up with the recent failure in the dollar index[/strike]

This did not occur so Im ok to be bearish I think. Which is just as well because all my funds turned to cash today as part of the rebalance & reorganisation transfer I arranged at the start of Jan.
Obviously Im wishing I'd had more confidence to act and turn those funds to bonds on 11th of Jan when Kittie mentioned the bull trap scenario I also had charted.

Hopefully next time I can be more proactive on major trend breaks, Im still wondering if market prices can rise next week also but right now I do not envision this so thats my best guess!

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The dollar turned strong instead so there was no breakout and instead we fell very consistently.
A recovery in the price longer term looks a bit more unlikely unfortunately especially if we cant hold onto 1.5853.
This was the low price for december, we're wavering on it right now




The arrow was yesterdays cable price at time of posting and also marks the trajectory I was projecting as possible. Now more unlikely

The dollar index is back at its uptrend. Im not entirely convinced its going to go up like before because a previous trend can become resistance so its at a crossroads I guess which does match the news situation

tradetime

It must be the long term holders who matter most surely because those traders are selling to each other most of the time

A friend of mine always says, with regards to trading, the market is a money transfer mechanism. It simply transfers money from the accounts of people who don't know what they are doing, into the accounts of those who do.

SPX looking for support to hold in the 085 - 081 area, otherwise we test the lows at 073 - 074 again, the bear flag targeting the 040's area is still unresolved.
US$ continues to target 81 - 82
The continuing troubles of Toyota escalating yesterday added strength to it

tonygee_3

I believe wholeheartedly in TA,absolutely fundamental to trading,but I usually see a scenario within 5 mins,if you need to spend hours on it youve probably tried to create a scenario that suits your agenda.
I was reading a forum where an 'expert' had spent all weekend studying a share(which was £3.20)he said it will bounce to 3.50 but if it doesnt it might fall??
I commented it will fall to £3,to the disgust of the other forumites,it then fell to £3:rotfl:

tonygee_3

tradetime wrote: »

It simply transfers money from the accounts of people who don't know what they are doing, into the accounts of those who do.

Spot on,I also think the whole market is contolled/decided by a few at the top.They tried in the 30s to turn the markets but failed but have probably succeeded ever since:eek:

turbobob

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

The big leveraged traders are what make this market so spiky, they have to sell all the time. It must be the long term holders who matter most surely because those traders are selling to each other most of the time

I think one of the premises of Dow theory, which is the basis of a lot of TA, is that the primary trend of the market (timescale of several months to years) can't be manipulated. Shorter term it can be manipulated. Don't know whether that is still true, I suspect it is.

sabretoothtigger

The continuing troubles of Toyota escalating yesterday added strength to it

Probably a good time to buy Toyota is my thoughts though Im not especially interested in motor companies

I usually see a scenario within 5 mins,if you need to spend hours on it youve probably tried to create a scenario that suits your agenda.

Being too involved is definitely a hazard. Its easier to spot a trend when I dont own that stock

can't be manipulated

If they debase the entire currency of which the stocks are traded in, that would be a possible influence. Underlying markets I agree cant be controlled but the nominal figures can

Thrugelmir

tonygee wrote: »

Spot on,I also think the whole market is contolled/decided by a few at the top.They tried in the 30s to turn the markets but failed but have probably succeeded ever since:eek:

Goldman Sachs average transactional trade in Vodaphone is 10 million shares. This is what moves the market in the majors these days, as much as market news does.

Some years ago I maintained the accounting records for the Friends Life Offfice life fund. If the investment board decided to buy BP for example. They would deal with up to 6 different brokerages, trade in parcels of 50,000 shares and do it over a 2 week time frame. So as not to move the market too rapidly. As the shares were bought on a long term buy and hold view.

In the back room we used to track the traders on a much smaller scale! Wasn't hugely profitable but rarely lost money. In overall terms more of a steady gain.

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

I believe wholeheartedly in TA,absolutely fundamental to trading,but I usually see a scenario within 5 mins,if you need to spend hours on it youve probably tried to create a scenario that suits your agenda.
I was reading a forum where an 'expert' had spent all weekend studying a share(which was £3.20)he said it will bounce to 3.50 but if it doesnt it might fall??
I commented it will fall to £3,to the disgust of the other forumites,it then fell to £3:rotfl:

In the main, I'd agree with that as well, I don't trade individual stocks anymore, but when I used to, all that was required was a screener to isolate the type of stocks you wanted, a quick look to see if there was a tradable setup on it, and a monitor of the newsfeed to see what news was on it, as individual stocks are much more news sensitive than the broad market.

At the weekend usually on a Sunday now, I spend a couple of hours looking at the charts, because I will cover most of the major indices as they tend to be related. Plus I coverall the commodities, and a few of the currency pairs. And to make it easier in the week, I will mark the suppt / resistance levels, so it's easier to flick through each instrument and see if it's near a tradable level. Pre-market each day then is about 15 mins, to estimate the likely range for an up and a down scenario.

Another point to which you are spot on with.

if you need to spend hours on it youve probably tried to create a scenario that suits your agenda.

There's a lot of truth in that, because of what TA is, and how it works, if you decide first what you think the market should be doing, then you can find a case for that with your TA. We all have a base or natural bias, I'm a bear by nature, a born pessimist and cynic, the glass is always half empty, but I have to disregard that, hence I was able to be bullish most of last year

negs

Hi all,
Good posts..i have been a regular reader..
do not know where the markets are going..Missed yell yesterday..was always in two minds whether to buy or not..in general do not feel good about directory businesses for the future and also there are much bigger players in the online advertising business..however the price was quite tempting..its rose 12% as i am writing..weird but a very volatile share..

bought in HMV today..maintained a good dividend even in recessionary times..and stable profits..i think its way oversold..will see over the next few months how it goes..