Banks

mrposhman

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Now looks like their own bank could well get completely nationalised and the shareholders wiped out.

and what new information is that assessment made on??

Theres been so many posts on here stating things that make little sense.

Basically this is how I see it. The banks were running out of cash due to short term liquidity problems, the government produced bonds to allow the banks to lend from them. However, this caused further problems in that it highlighted problems that had been simmering for a while, causing economies to surrender to recession. The banks were "bailed out" and provided cash to shore up their balance sheets enabling them to write down their balance sheets. THIS IS WHAT THEY ARE DOING. THEY ARE WRITING DOWN THEIR BALANCE SHEETS.

Everyone expected this and I'm sure they knew it was coming. Writedowns have no reflection on the ability for the bank to continue as a going concern therefore it doesn't seem to be a financial reason.

Politically they could do it, however to me that seems unlikely, as the perception is that Brown forced the purchase of HBOS on to Lloyds, therefore Brown would seem to have screwed up and we all know that he doesn't like taking any blame so why would he do it. For some they see this as the only political way to regain the government when the election is called. For me its the wrong decision for the taxpayer, its the wrong decision for the bank and it would be the final nail in the coffin for Browns government.

StevieJ

Dooooooooooooooonut wrote: »

Have you seen the price of oil recently?

Have you seen the share price :T up from around £12.30 to £17.30, I make that 48% increase on a falling oil price, What were
you trying to say?

StevieJ

Dooooooooooooooonut wrote: »

I was trying to say that you were an investment genius unmatched by any human being before or after of course. Verily I am not even worthy to set my eyes upon you nor whisper your name. And when it comes down to it neither have I earned the great privilege to post replies on a forum, and for this I can only apologise and beg forgiveness o exalted one.

Fancy some man love?

I will give the last bit of a miss if you don't mind, I can see where you are comiing from on the rest of your wonderful piece of prose, keep it up (so to speak)

Dithering_Dad

I love it when we start talking shares, it really does sort out the men from the boys. The 'arm chair' economists can re-hash stuff they read in the papers or on Peston's blog, but when it comes to talking about anything where original thought is required, they fall down completely.

StevieJ

mrposhman wrote: »

Politically they could do it, however to me that seems unlikely, as the perception is that Brown forced the purchase of HBOS on to Lloyds, therefore Brown would seem to have screwed up and we all know that he doesn't like taking any blame so why would he do it.

Very good point.

WTF?_2

mrposhman wrote: »

and what new information is that assessment made on??

I came to that assessment based on common sense.

If you don't want to hear it from me, maybe you'll listen to mainstream news and analysis sources today ....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/feb/14/darling-lloyds-hbos

The chancellor, Alistair Darling, last night declined to rule out the option of nationalising Lloyds Group after the bank warned of potential £11bn losses at HBOS, which it rescued with government backing in the autumn.
..
The Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, Vince Cable, said: "It looks increasingly as if Lloyds is being dragged under by the dead weight of HBOS, a financial disaster created by Andy Hornby and his predecessor, Sir James Crosby. Obviously we need to digest the detail, but it looks increasingly as if Lloyds HBOS will now go into majority public ownership, followed inevitably by nationalisation."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/02/lloyds_and_hbos_humbled.html

Lloyds didn't have to buy enfeebled HBOS - even though the government encouraged it to do so.

And only this week, Daniels insisted that, in time, Lloyds would make good money from the takeover.

This afternoon's horrible fall in Lloyds' share price is investors having serious doubts about whether Lloyds was right to buy HBOS.

As I said, Lloyds didn't have to buy HBOS. They screwed up and now face the real possibility of nationalisation whereas they could have done quite well out of the crisis by virtue of the fact that they were competently run during the years of credit bubble madness and were well placed to make profits as a sound and solvent bank.

StevieJ

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

I love it when we start talking shares, it really does sort out the men from the boys. The 'arm chair' economists can re-hash stuff they read in the papers or on Peston's blog, but when it comes to talking about anything where original thought is required, they fall down completely.

DD a short interesting report for you, a few pretty charts as well

http://www.bedlamplc.com/c2/uploads/embrace%20the%20recession_q109.pdf

Dithering_Dad

StevieJ wrote: »

DD a short interesting report for you, a few pretty charts as well

http://www.bedlamplc.com/c2/uploads/embrace%20the%20recession_q109.pdf

Some top graphs in there Stevie! Loved the Calvin & Hobbs at the end - it's funny because it's true

Pobby

Maybe it`s because of my age but I only have 30% of my portfolio in equities, which of course have taken a bashing. Glad I don`t need them right now. Got quite a bit sitting in cash isas and on deposit, feeling the urge to take a punt but only have a number of years for it to come right. I know that DD and I are trying to aim at the same kind of retirement fund but as he is a youngster he`s got a lot more time to get there. My plan right now, and I could be wrong is to have enough cash to live on, combined with state pension and serps to give me another 5 years after 65 before I cash in our private/ company pensions along side my other " locked away " funds. All a bit of a head ache really.

Dithering_Dad

Pobby wrote: »

Maybe it`s because of my age but I only have 30% of my portfolio in equities, which of course have taken a bashing. Glad I don`t need them right now. Got quite a bit sitting in cash isas and on deposit, feeling the urge to take a punt but only have a number of years for it to come right. I know that DD and I are trying to aim at the same kind of retirement fund but as he is a youngster he`s got a lot more time to get there. My plan right now, and I could be wrong is to have enough cash to live on, combined with state pension and serps to give me another 5 years after 65 before I cash in our private/ company pensions along side my other " locked away " funds. All a bit of a head ache really.

You should see an IFA pobby, especially if you're only 5 or so yrs from retirement (www.unbiased.co.uk).

Alternatively, you could bung about £10k on MDST (Medicsight), currently at 10p a share (I bought in at 9p) and hope for the best!