U.K Plc "Will not enter Recession"

tradetime

m00m00 wrote: »

how much is actually generated by stamp duty

and how much by petrol duty

the ever increasing price of oil could provided a 'get out' in this regard

(I have no idea of the actual figures, so I stand to be corrected)

Figures as of 2007 I think.

From 2007-10-01 the main road fuel (petrol and diesel) duty rate in the UK is GBP£0.5035 per litre (GBP£2.2890/imperial gal or GBP£1.9059/US gal). The rate for biodiesel and bioethanol is £0.3035/L (GBP£1.3797/imperial gal or GBP£1.1489/US gal).[1] Value Added Tax (VAT), currently at 17.5%, is also charged on the price of the fuel and on the duty. At a pump price of 128.8p/litre (typical for diesel as at May 2008), this would put the combined tax at 69.53p/litre, or approximately USD$5.20 per US gallon. Thus without tax, the retail price would be 59.26p per litre, making a combined tax rate of 117%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax#United_Kingdom

ManAtHome

pickles110564 wrote: »

The shipping industry must know something about the worldwide economy that the experts just do not understand.

Depends when they planned it - up to this time last year, imports and exports had been increasing solidly for 15 years and money was still cheap.

m00m00

so given the average house price at the moment is circa 170k

that gives 1.7k in stamp duty

at current levels that's 2445 (approx) litres of fuel duty

this would suggest that as things stand any decline in stamp duty is more than compensated for by an increase in fuel prices.

tradetime

m00m00 wrote: »

so given the average house price at the moment is circa 170k

that gives 1.7k in stamp duty

at current levels that's 2445 (approx) litres of fuel duty

this would suggest that as things stand any decline in stamp duty is more than compensated for by an increase in fuel prices.

Hmmn, but then there'll be the loss of tax on all the income revenue streams associated with a vibrant property market, ie EA profits, and Income tax on all the salaries, plus develpers revenue taxes plus all the salaries of the sectors employees, tax on profits at all the local suppliers, and all the DIY retailers. The current price of fuel is already creating....wait for it......new buzz phrase that should catch on soon with the media...."Demand destruction" which once there is reasonable evidence of it having an effect on demand will force investors in the crude space to start unwinding their positions before there's a run for the exits.

m00m00

just as well we can trust the government to spend wisely the short term burst in revenue from high oil prices.

oh

wait

we're doomed

danrees

UK Plc will not enter recession because UK Plc is increasingly dominated by mining companies with no activity in the UK!

moanymoany

Generali wrote: »

There's a very interesting piece on the [PHP]Bedlam[/PHP] Asset Management website about the predicament the government is in now a recession looks pretty close to a nailed on certainty.

Their point (which is a point I try to get across on here too) is that the productive part of the UK economy is basically restricted to the South East corner of England and Aberdeen. The trouble is, the next recession looks likely to hit that part of the country hard as financial services take a big hit.

They also predict house prices halving in real terms (35% nominal) drop between now and 2010. They predict that for the next 2 years, the banking sector will pay no corporation tax at all and that stamp duty receipts will fall by 65%. The UK govt will be forced to cut spending as they will be unable to get the money from income (taxes) or borrowing.

I agree with their summation of things. If you're relying on the Govt for your income that may not be as secure as you hope be it as a civil servant or on the dole.

Bedlam as in

---

lunatic asylum?

Generali

moanymoany wrote: »

Bedlam as in

---

lunatic asylum?

Yup. They're a hedge fund: Bedlam Asset Management.

http://www.bedlamplc.com/index.html

They write occasional pieces on their website that are often quite funny and always informative. The section 'Drink is not the Answer' in the current article they have up sums up for me the futility of trying to raise taxes to ever higher levels very nicely.

Jonbvn

Anybody I have ever met or known from the Square Mile has always spoken and acted like drink is the only answer! I am yet to formulate a hypothesis to counter this ideal!

WTF?_2

pickles110564 wrote: »

The shipping industry must know something about the worldwide economy that the experts just do not understand.
Between them over the short term up til 2010 the are investing several billions of pounds on expanding and creating Ports.
DPW themselves are investing over one billion at the new shellhaven Port and infrastructure.
Teesport is going to become a very big player up north and liverpool are playing catch up as well.

You may find this interesting reading:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2008/07/04/is_global_shipping_slowing_drastically

Jacques Saad!, the head of the French shipping giant CMA CMG, says the shipping cycle has turned with a vengeance.
"We're seeing ships leaving Asia that are not full. We are living through a real economic slowdown. It is a latent crisis that will take time to disappear. I don't see it getting better before the end of 2009."
"America is importing less, so is Europe. After a record year in 2007, where we had more offers than we could take on our ships, traffic between Asia and Europe has now fallen to a 94pc occpancy rate," he said.
..
Lloyds List said the shipping industry will know when the first Asian loads begin for the pre-Christmas season in a month as whether this is the start of a serious slump. The anecdotal talk is that the picture is deteriorating fast.


Always pays to keep an eye on the current situation rather than past glories......