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Profiting from wrong inflation predictions via own price survey?
This morning the BBC in particular were banging on about inflation going above 3% which was indeed the market consensus. In the event the inflation figure was 2.6% and this unexpected outcome moved the markets with GBP/USD falling by 0.5%. If you had known the inflation figure in advance it would have been easy to predict…
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250k Economics Prize winner is wrong?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40600082 Suggestion for taxing roads - a charge per mile levied by the insurance companies to replace vehicle excise duty and fuel tax. Variation by manufacturer claimed vehicle mpg helps but: 1) Economically speaking not all miles have equal opportunity cost. Driving on a busy road…
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Media Is Now Predicting A Massive 40% Property Price Crash
We have put off buying another property for the last 6/9 months as we too expect a long over due price crash, but not the 40% predicted in the link but more like 30% in London at least. We have noted that estate agents will always remanin bullish but properties going up on over inflated prices then 2/3 weeks latter…
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Should suburban densification be part of the solution to the housing shortage?
So locally we have seen a lot of brownfield (ish) land converted into housing, for example the station carpark became a multi-storey with houses on top, the local FE college consolidated onto a single site and the old site was converted to flats and town houses, an unused print-works became an urban square with townhouses,…
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REMAINERS -there is no recession
For all those REMAINERS, the experts have just admitted there was no economic decline in the last three months as the experts predicted. Wrong! Now they say growth will be weaker next year. This is a forecast from the very same experts! Who do you believe now? Cheers fj
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Are high house prices distorting the economy and reducing GDP?
Here is my example: https://www.auction.co.uk/residential/LotDetails.asp?A=1028&MP=24&ID=1028000160&S=L&O=A A modern office block about 15 miles outside the M25. For sale, the price driven by the fact it has permission to be converted into flats. So what is going on here? An office block that is probably producing a decent…
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Bank of England shocks markets with close vote on rate hike
The Bank of England shocked financial markets on Thursday when it said three of its policymakers voted for an interest rate hike, the closest it has come to raising rates since 2007, despite signs of a slowdown in Britain's economy. The unexpectedly tight 5-3 vote adds questions over monetary policy to uncertainty over…
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Post-Brexit U.K. Car Sales Slump Seen Risking 18,000 German Jobs
Confirmation of the widely held view. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-22/post-brexit-u-k-car-sales-slump-seen-risking-18-000-german-jobs
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Will central and east Haringey be the new hackney ?
http://www.cityam.com/266388/london-house-prices-haringey-enjoys-biggest-annual-house
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Lunatic London Property market starting to turn?
Search Zoopla for flats in SW8 and filter it by “most reduced”. You’ll find at least 25 pages of reductions – over 1,000 flats – in SW8 alone Locals won’t buy them – Stamp duty, as well as prices, is deterring foreign buyers, while new legislation and rock-bottom yields have deterred the buy-to-let investor. These flats…
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Minimum wage increases can lead to lower income for employees
When the minimum wage was first introduced many economists had concerns that it could reduce overall employment, however, this concern was largely incorrect and there was little if any negative effect from introducing minimum wages observed in developed economies around the world. Since it's introduction however UK minimum…
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New age economics - low growth world?
are we now under a continuous long term period of low growth which has only just began? discuss.
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Borrowed time - When will May cease to be prime minister.
Another quick poll. When will May go, and under what circumstances? For the sake of the question, it's as party leader rather than prime minister, meaning that if parliament is dissolved due to the calling of a new general election, we'll consider her "gone" once it's clear who'll lead the party even though she may still…
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Tesco to axe 1,200 head office jobs
Unrelated to Brexit as well. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40429659
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You know nothing Jon Snow
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Nice People Thread No. 15, a Cyber Summer
Welcome to the new Nice People Thread. Since it has been such a long wet and miserable and windy and generally horrible winter I'm laying on a Cyber Summer to remind us that just possibly at some stage we will get some gentle and warm weather! Come sit by my drowsy OH on the virtual patio, there's more chairs up on the…
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Europe's inequality highly destabilising, ECB's Draghi says
The EU's aren't paved with gold for everyone. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ecb-policy-draghi-idUKKBN19H1Z7
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Exclusive: Report says EU firms face higher banking bills after Brexit
In the news. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN19E1RD
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Will high-rise rents now weaken?
In the wake of Grenfell Tower I wonder how keen people will be on living in such buildings? The building regulations for high-rise are exactly the same whether for private sector or public. A high-rise that's just had £10 million spent on it would, until a week ago, have probably seemed like quite an attractive…
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Stagflation and the BoE rate setting vote
'In economics, stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It raises a dilemma for economic policy, since actions designed to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment, and vice versa.'…