Borrowed time - When will May cease to be prime minister.

kinger101

Another quick poll. When will May go, and under what circumstances? For the sake of the question, it's as party leader rather than prime minister, meaning that if parliament is dissolved due to the calling of a new general election, we'll consider her "gone" once it's clear who'll lead the party even though she may still technically by PM until the outcome of that election is decided.

CKhalvashi

May gone by the end of Sept 2017, new leader takes over with GE.

I think there's a possibility the government may be over before it began.

Labour have momentum going, and it just take a slight number of moderate Conservatives (and a number have spoken out against the Con/DUP alliance) to send it back to square one.

The Cons are defending 18 seats with a swing of less than 1%, 31 on less than 2%, either way if a swing goes even roughly against them, they've had it.

I think it will.

TrickyTree83

May still in post at March 2018, no GE.

Corbyn has had his day in the sun. If you want to say Labour ran a good campaign and got their vote out then conversely the thought of a socialist government stealing peoples money to redistribute will energise the opposition to that. If the last GE was ran again with the same leaders and policies it would be worse for Labour.

There will be very very few Conservative voters who care about a confidence and supply deal with the DUP more than they would about Jeremy and his merry band of soap dodging communists.

Wenlock

I suspect Labour did better than expected in the June GE because nobody (including Labour MPs) thought there was a remote possibility of a Corbyn government. It was all about preventing a massive Tory landslide.

If we have another GE soon I believe the real threat of Corbyn as PM will lead to a comfortable Tory win. Unless of course it looks like the Brexit vote will be betrayed, in which case many of the 60% or so of Tory voters who want a proper Brexit may be inclined to abstain or drift to UKIP.

I don't see the DUP doing anything to bring down the current Government (mainly due to Corbyn's IRA links) so the next election will probably happen whenever the opinion polls look better for the Conservatives. I don't see Mrs May staying for another election.

chris_m

Wenlock wrote: »

I suspect Labour did better than expected in the June GE because nobody (including Labour MPs) thought there was a remote possibility of a Corbyn government. It was all about preventing a massive Tory landslide.

Compounded by the Conservatives running a dire, negative campaign, principally aimed at running down Labour instead of talking themselves up.

I think that if the GE were to be repeated with the same policies all round and the Conservatives were to run a positive campaign with proper explanation of their policies, then they'd walk it to a decent majority albeit not a landslide.

Fella

Interestingly seen a lot of comments in the last week from people saying they'd previously liked Corbyn but have been very turned off by his constant politicisation of terrorism/disasters in the last few weeks.

Herzlos

May gone by the end of Sept 2017, new leader takes over with GE.

Wenlock wrote: »

I suspect Labour did better than expected in the June GE because nobody (including Labour MPs) thought there was a remote possibility of a Corbyn government. It was all about preventing a massive Tory landslide.

Conversely I think a lot of Scottish Tories did so well due to strategic voting against an SNP landslide (the Labour candidates enouraging people to vote Tory to beat the SNP must still be kicking themselves right now)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

May still in post at March 2018, no GE.

Herzlos wrote: »

Conversely I think a lot of Scottish Tories did so well due to strategic voting against an SNP landslide (the Labour candidates enouraging people to vote Tory to beat the SNP must still be kicking themselves right now)

Nice try but nope, it really doesn't look much like that as some have been suggesting on the "Fish" thread for a long time.

Just one example - Ayrshire North & Arran:
SNP vote 18,451
Conservative vote 14,818
Labour vote 13,040

If there had been a concerted effort as you suggest then it seems highly likely that whichever of the two parties chosen to receive the "strategic vote" would have received a higher share of votes than the SNP, thus further reducing SNP seats.

There's lots more examples where the SNP only just held on too, so to suggest that "strategic voting" was as widespread as you suggest is fallacy.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/in-full-general-election-2017-scottish-seat-results-1-4470556

Fella

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Nice try but nope, it really doesn't look much like that as some have been suggesting on the "Fish" thread for a long time.

Just one example - Ayrshire North & Arran:
SNP vote 18,451
Conservative vote 14,818
Labour vote 13,040

If there had been a concerted effort as you suggest then it seems highly likely that whichever of the two parties chosen to receive the "strategic vote" would have received a higher share of votes than the SNP, thus further reducing SNP seats.

There's lots more examples where the SNP only just held on too, so to suggest that "strategic voting" was as widespread as you suggest is fallacy.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/in-full-general-election-2017-scottish-seat-results-1-4470556

Agree. IMO strategic voting occurs when voters jump a little, e.g. between Tories & UKIP or between Labour & Libs. I don't think many Labour voters ever strategically vote Tory......

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

Would Vince Cable be willing to take the Lib Dems into another coalition with the Tories for some trinkets and media time? I think we all know the answer to that.

He's specifically ruled it out citing the bruising experience of the last coalition whereby the LD's took none of the credit but lots of blame.

Conrad

Tories will run a much better GE campaign next time, having had the wake - up call they just endured.


Hopefully no more special advisors going against the common sense of experienced MP's when it comes to policy making. The dementia tax was an obvious vote loser the second it was unleashed. That Mrs May couldn't see this underlines her unfitness for role of leader.


She will be gone at the first opportunity, long before the next GE.


Lets hope the Tories don't resort to picking losers as they did during the Hague, IDS Howard era. David Davis is the obvious choice. Boris is a bit of a risk.