Borrowed time - When will May cease to be prime minister.

qwert_yuiop

Conrad wrote: »

He's specifically ruled it out citing the bruising experience of the last coalition whereby the LD's took none of the credit but lots of blame.

The liberals are the only overtly pro eu party. There's no way they'll go along with "brexit means brexit" (whatever that means) of any kind.

Fella

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

The liberals are the only overtly pro eu party. There's no way they'll go along with "brexit means brexit" (whatever that means) of any kind.

You'd think so but never underestimate what a politician would do for a bit of power. Somebody like Cable would justify it in a flash by saying they needed to go into Coalition with the Tories to "prevent them doing a hard brexit" or whatever. Possible.

teddysmum

A tv news item said that in three areas Labour got in by only about 30 votes and I know of one where the win was by only 20,so just a few people could make a lot of difference.


Now the Tories have droped some of the nasties those who defected because of them could return ,especially after seeing what Corbyn is encouraging. (There's a danger worse than losing your house when you die :having it taken while you are alive , because you are the sole occupant and it's needed for all the poor people.)

Filo25

Some other scenario I have not described.

I can't see this parliament lasting 5 years, if only because its going to be very difficult to get anything vaguely contentious voted through.

But even if the Tories can't agree a deal immediately with the DUP, they would have a tiny majority if the DUP abstained (I can't see any way the DUP would want to actually bring down the government, given their feelings towards the thought of Corbyn becoming PM).

So I can see the government hobbling on for longer than some think, they certainly won't be calling an early election with Theresa May still leading the party, or with the opinion polls looking the way they do now.

Seabee42

It is interesting given the opposition for the Tories to loose seats shows you how many people have not bought into their policies.


The government is still running a deficit and people talk about austerity when really the government spending has only ever been up so it is really how they are prioritising spending. Even so areas have been cut so people are buying into the Tory cuts.


At the same time corporation tax has been cut and more is promised. No matter how you look at it generally speaking most owners of shares are richer than average. Therefore this directly benefits the rich either through higher pay for directors or dividends.


It is not really a good sell we need cuts (even if its true) if you going to give more money to the rich (by taxing them less).


People may not have believed the Corbin money tree would deliver all that was promised but they might think they will get something, and a 50k bribe to students is not a small amount!


So even though the opposition is very left wing and pro mass immigration (supposedly a vote loser) the Tories need to do very much better in government nevermind running awful campaigns.

Herzlos

May gone by the end of Sept 2017, new leader takes over with GE.

Fella wrote: »

Agree. IMO strategic voting occurs when voters jump a little, e.g. between Tories & UKIP or between Labour & Libs. I don't think many Labour voters ever strategically vote Tory......

Some people are rabidly anti-SNP and view them as a single issue party, so will be happy to vote strategically against the SNP, in the same way people voted strategically against the Tories.

That it's close or that SLabour and STories are notionally on different ends of the scale doesn't mean it wasn't happening. It happened in the local council elections too.

That's just what happens when people boil everything down to a single issue.

Spidernick

May gone by the end of Sept 2017, new leader takes over without GE.

Those saying that Labour has peaked may be right, but there are a few things to consider to counter this.

Firstly it is evident that, after years of seeing their living standards reduce with the public debt still increasing, people have had enough of austerity and won't vote Tory if they stay on the same path.

I don't see people being afraid of a Corbyn Premiership now. Ask yourself who has looked more like a Prime Minister since the election and I think you'll find more say Corbyn than May (albeit that many on these boards won't agree).

Labour was very much on the defensive last time round. Near me they tried to retain the Southampton seat they still had, rather than try to win back the one they lost in 2015 (this was the tactic across the country, as commentators noted during the election). As it was, the seat they had was retained with an increased majority and the other seat was lost by only 31 votes (so to the poster mentioning the small Labour majorities, it does work both ways!). If Labour runs a more aggressive campaign next time well, then could improve further.

Finally, there's the youth vote. If I was in Labour high command I'd be looking at any constituency with a large student population that is currently held by another party and try and repeat the Canterbury success (truly seismic - I grew up in Kent and never thought I'd see a Labour MP in Canterbury). That campaign was something to behold and Labour are well ahead of the Tories when it comes to using social media effectively, which is a far more powerful tool than the tabloids (I'm pleased to say!).

In summary, the next election could be just as unpredictable as the one we've just had.

kinger101

May gone by the end of Sept 2017, new leader takes over without GE.

Spidernick wrote: »

Finally, there's the youth vote. If I was in Labour high command I'd be looking at any constituency with a large student population that is currently held by another party and try and repeat the Canterbury success (truly seismic - I grew up in Kent and never thought I'd see a Labour MP in Canterbury). That campaign was something to behold and Labour are well ahead of the Tories when it comes to using social media effectively, which is a far more powerful tool than the tabloids (I'm pleased to say!).

In summary, the next election could be just as unpredictable as the one we've just had.

I think the youth vote was the most definitely the most likely explanation for the unexpected swing toward Labour. Although the next election will also be very unpredictable, I don't think the next Tory leader will make the same mistakes as May.

Labour can be attacked on both their historic record on the economy, and their future plans of financing everything through debt and some nonsense rich bogeyman tax rather than the only viable alternative to attain their goal; raising income taxes for everyone. It's rather perverse that Corbyn, who claims to be a socialist, can't even bring himself to raise income tax levels to the same as when John Major left office.

Spidernick

May gone by the end of Sept 2017, new leader takes over without GE.

I see that currently the option with the most votes is May still there next March. Could those of you who have put that please explain your rationale, as more commentators have her gone by the conference season, which makes perfect sense to me. I really cannot see her lasting anywhere near nine months, but it's a funny world and perhaps no one else (including some in Labour) want to carry the 'Brexit' poisoned chalice. What a mess!

I do wonder if the Tories will go for Hammond as PM as John Major mark II - safe but boring. He's also had the same jobs as Major (Foreign Secretary, then Chancellor) and followed a female leader as PM. Nothing would surprise me at the moment.

steampowered

May still in post at March 2018, no GE.

Spidernick wrote: »

I see that currently the option with the most votes is May still there next March. Could those of you who have put that please explain your rationale

I voted for May to stay until next March. I don't think removing May would be a good move for the Tories.

I think this is the most likely outcome because I don't think Tory MPs will want to remove their leader in the middle of Brexit negotiations.

I also don't think Tory MPs will want to have another election. There have been several general elections and referendums in the past few years. MPs and party activists are tired of fighting elections and local party funds are running low.

While May has performed poorly, she isn't particularly offensive. Certainly there is nothing on the level of Thatcher's poll tax.

That said, anything could happen. Particularly if some of May's backbenchers start rebelling on key votes.