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If we vote for Brexit what happens
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just thinking, if we're not in the single market then Germany and France wont be (when they sell to us), so there be worse off as we buy more stuff of them.“Life isn't about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself.”
― George Bernard Shaw0 -
just thinking, if we're not in the single market then Germany and France wont be (when they sell to us), so there be worse off as we buy more stuff of them.
The UK buys just 7% of EU exports - worth about 3% of EU GDP.
That can be replaced without lasting harm.
The EU on the other hand buys 45% of UK exports.... That's an existential threat to large sections of the UK economy.
Our hand is weak - and everyone knows it.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The UK buys just 7% of EU exports - worth about 3% of EU GDP.
That can be replaced without lasting harm.
The EU on the other hand buys 45% of UK exports.... That's an existential threat to large sections of the UK economy.
Our hand is weak - and everyone knows it.
Check the data on trade and you'll see the 7% is concentrated within the net contributor, high wage, large GDP economies of the EU.
It may not appear to matter when it's presented as a statistic encompassing the entire EU. But it matters when it's presented as a statistic relating to particular member states.
Context is everything.
Germany - we're the 3rd largest market
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports-by-country
Spain - we're the 4th largest market
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/exports-by-country
Belgium - we're the 4th largest market
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/belgium/exports-by-country
Netherlands - we're the 3rd largest market
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/netherlands/exports-by-country
France - we're the 5th largest market
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/exports-by-country
Poland - we're the 2nd largest market
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/poland/exports-by-country
Italy - we're the 4th largest market
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/exports-by-country
Ireland - we're the 2nd largest market
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/exports-by-country
and on... and on...
Just for balance, here's what those markets mean to the UK.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports-by-country0 -
TrickyTree83 wrote: »Context is everything.
Indeed.
Like the 'context' that all 27 states have a veto on any future post-departure EU trade deal with the UK.
So the concentration of trade in a few is of little relevance.;)“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Indeed.
Like the 'context' that all 27 states have a veto on any future post-departure EU trade deal with the UK.
So the concentration of trade in a few is of little relevance.;)
The concentration of trade is of the utmost relevance, there will be a will within the major contributors to maintain the trade to maintain their economic growth in order to finance the EU. Those who benefit greatly from the EU on the whole are those who have little trade with the UK. As seen with Greece, the net contributors ultimately call the shots.
What they risk is a recession in the largest economies of the EU as well as losing the UK contribution to the EU budget will indirectly harm the coffers of those who benefit from the EU budget. They're all intertwined and there is no escaping that.0 -
None the less we are a significant market for certain sectors with millions of EU jobs dependant on trade with UK
Can't see these workers just playfully going along with being harmed by political elites
Which sectors are you thinking of in particular?
Companies grow and shrink, come and go all the time. With it jobs too. Brexit isn't going to be a cliff edge.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »
And equally obviously no rational person should expect as good a deal from your club after you leave and stop paying your dues as the deal you get whilst still a member.
What will rational German auto workers make of political elites wishing to harm thier trade with the U.K., which is a hugely profitable market for the German car sector?
You still quote EU trade with us in terms of the entire 27. Totally irrelevant.0 -
Latest YOUGOV
Only 21% wish to reverse Brexit.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Indeed.
Like the 'context' that all 27 states have a veto on any future post-departure EU trade deal with the UK.
So the concentration of trade in a few is of little relevance.;)
You are talking self harm to the millions of European workers engaged in UK trade. You are delluded if you think they will play along with political elites wet dreams, and harm thier own livelihoods.
'Hello Spannisn Farmers that supply fruit n salads to the UK, guess what, we comfy political elites are going to make it harder for you to sell to the UK'
The U.K. Might cut energy taxes to make salad growing under glass more viable, and the UK can source from North and west Africa, Israel, S Africa and elsewhere.
So Spanish farmers you lose. But hey, the M@fia protection racket lives on, cool.0 -
A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »David Davis - we will be able to deport criminals:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/30/uk-takes-back-right-deport-britain-repeals-powers-eu/
I'd suggest you watch the TV series 'UK Border Force'
Can't remember the episode, but it was filmed around 2007/8 and a Lithuanian national was denied entry as it was deemed not in the British interests to have him here. He had an outstanding European Arrest Warrant IIRC.
It was alleged (again IIRC) that he had been involved in serious crime in I think Germany.
I hope that whatever happens with the EU, we remain close enough to enforce European Arrest Warrants, as while I admit I have a liberal approach to immigration, it's obvious that we don't want that sort of person in the UK.
We, of course, don't want to enter into a short term visa free area with the EU and be seen as a long term soft touch for criminals. Same goes for any country we share a visa free arrangement with.
It goes without saying that if he was coming here to do the same thing, it could have saved insurers and therefore you and I 6 or 7 figure sums, so well worth it in the long run.💙💛 💔0
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