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Premium Bond Winner ?

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Comments

  • M3_Sussex
    M3_Sussex Posts: 351 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    Not a bad month.....


    PB.jpg
  • Richard_III_2
    Richard_III_2 Posts: 78 Forumite
    Looks to me like the random number generator is up the spout. - Where are the auditors?


    The clustering of these £50 wins looks wrong to me.
    I had 2 winnings, 34 numbers apart last month.
  • M3_Sussex
    M3_Sussex Posts: 351 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    Richard_III wrote: »
    Looks to me like the random number generator is up the spout. - Where are the auditors?


    The clustering of these £50 wins looks wrong to me.
    I had 2 winnings 34 numbers apart last month.

    Well, I'm not complaining. :D However, I'm kind of surprised at this number of winning bonds. It's the second time its happened to me. In April last year I had five winning bonds (4 x 50 & 1 x 100). My mate who also has the maximum amount doesn't win anything like the amount I do which is odd as on average (over time) we should have the same number of winning bonds.
  • Crabman
    Crabman Posts: 9,942 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Photogenic Combo Breaker
    I've had bonds nearly three years now (1k investment) not a sausage from them. I'll probably be withdrawing them this month :(
  • meanmachine_2
    meanmachine_2 Posts: 2,624 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    I'm confused - the prize checker still lists May as the latest month.

    And yes, bang goes the random theory - not that I really believed it anyway.

    EDIT: Just checked - yes, updated for June.

    No win again on a MAXIMUM holding. I'm cashing in. I'm currently averaging a 1% return - I repeat, 1% - on my bonds.

    I'd be doing better gambling on three legged greyhounds.
  • imported_goldie
    imported_goldie Posts: 146 Forumite
    The large prize winning list didnt look at all random to me this month. There was a whole group of winning bonds purchased April 2007. I know lots of people bought bonds then for the June draw but when you think of all the bonds held over so many years it seems strange such a lot won from one particular month and year. Also seemd to be a group of wins for Two other months this year, they were all listed one after the other for that month. Anyone else think the winning list looked very dodgy this time?
  • meanmachine_2
    meanmachine_2 Posts: 2,624 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    So new bonds seem to have a better chance of winning, then winnings dramatically tail off after that.

    As I say, I'm incredibly sceptical of this whole "randomness"- but only because my *ahem* luck has been so awful in the past six months, compared to the first six months.

    I think I have every reason to be sceptical.

    The best strategy appears to be to hold for six months then cash in and reinvest.

    Lesson learned.
  • halloweenqueen_2
    halloweenqueen_2 Posts: 3,312 Forumite
    M3_Sussex wrote: »
    Not a bad month.....


    PB.jpg

    Fantastic, can't wait until I get a month like that - well done!
  • Richard_III_2
    Richard_III_2 Posts: 78 Forumite
    imported_goldie wrote: »
    The large prize winning list didnt look at all random to me this month. There was a whole group of winning bonds purchased April 2007. I know lots of people bought bonds then for the June draw but when you think of all the bonds held over so many years it seems strange such a lot won from one particular month and year. Also seemd to be a group of wins for Two other months this year, they were all listed one after the other for that month. Anyone else think the winning list looked very dodgy this time?

    Does anyone know how this random number thing works.
    They have obviously changed the system in recent years, if only to get the results published quicker.

    It wouldn't surprise me that this work was offshored to sunnier climes, and the quality of the work is rather poor.

    Can we find out the distribution of old and new bonds and then find out the distribution of the winners. Surely the NS&I are squeaky clean and we could get this under the Freedom of Information Act

    Are there any mathematicians out there who can shed some light on this?
  • amcluesent
    amcluesent Posts: 9,425 Forumite
    "The output of each draw is checked independently by the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD). It uses four methods of testing – Frequency, Serial, Poker and Correlation – to make sure the output has followed no set patterns, because any set pattern would suggest a bias. If no such pattern is discernible then the draw is determined to be random. A certificate is issued by GAD to verify the randomness of the draw."

    http://www.nsandi.com/products/pb/surprisingfacts.jsp#randomness
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