HBOS shares

[Deleted User]

I refer you back to...

The shorters guide (source - pauly pilot - motley fool)


1. Being Effective

To succeed in shorting there needs to be a catalyst. If everything's rosey, you'll get nowhere. You need a smokescreen... there's no smoke without fire. Choose a share or sector where there are known issues.

2. Identity

To have an effect, you don't want to be seen as having a negative history. Your current negative stance shouldn't look like your normal stance. If you already have an established profile on a message board, you can use that, although any attempt to push things beyond the sensible may wreck your profile, that may not bother you (it may help your credibility for enough time to achieve your aims ... you may even have been intentionally building up your profile for just this opportunity), but if it does it's easy to set up a new profile. This won't have any history, either postive or negative.

And, afterall, message boards get new posters all the time, so a newbie posting won't in itself raise suspicions. In fact, why stop at one?

3. Choice of name

If you're creating a new profile, everyone expects share rampers/derampers to have quite macho or dynamic names. To hide your true intentions try to think of a name that's cuddly, or ideally has a feminine aura. This will keep other poster's guards down. Also, when posting coming across as a naïve newbie will help keep peoples guards down. If anyone questions why you've suddenly appeared and taken an interest in a share when you are so negative, see section 13.

4. Negative Image - Pushing via repetition

Once you've got your persona, the simplest thing to do is just state your opinion. Over and over and over again. One liners are more than enough. Just keep repeating... this company is going out of business. Again, and again, and again. Don't worry if others respond with reasons to the contrary. Don't engage. Just keep repeating. This puts doubt into other reader's minds about whether they should be risking their money.

5. Negative Image - Enhancing Third Parties

In section 1 you chose a sector with problems. This helps. There will be respected posters who will post about the problems, warning others of them. These posts will be genuinely meant, and conatin genuine reasoning and fact.

Recommend these posts. The more people that recommend them, the more people will read them. You will also achieve the effect of elevating those poster's egos, potentially encouraging them to post more. Again keep recommending them. Get a virtuous cycle going.

You can also add your one liner insusbtantial comments to their threads to increase the apparent negativity. (Section 4)

6. Negative Image - Incorrect Information

Message boards are full of incorrect information. Add your own. For example who would trust directors with no shares in their company? Whether true or not, keep repeatedly (section 4) stating that the directors mustn't have confidence if they don't own shares in their own company. Repetition is the key. Very few would bother to confirm these facts, and if anyone posts a correction, just ignore it. Keep repeating the message. Any corrections will soon fade by the wayside.

7. Negative Image - Rumours ... the shorters friend

The slighest whisper of bad news, make sure people know of it. You don't need to provide a reference for it to be effective. In fact, who knows who starts rumours? Just make up a story, and if anyone asks where you got the info, just say it was offline and be vague to prevent anyone checking. People will be unsure whether to believe you or not, but that doesn't matter, it will still put doubt into potential investors minds helping them hold off.

8. Negative Image - The Trend is your friend

Whenever the shareprice drops this is a godsend. Make the most of it. Increase your postings of one liners stating the company is going out of business. This will increase the fear in potential buyers causing them to hold off their purchases. Keep fueling the negative cycle.

9. Facts - Lies

Others will post facts trying to stipulate why things aren't as bad as is being made out. Circumstance change for companies, and you can captialise on this. How would anyone know what the directors knew in advance? Make the most of it... keep claiming the directors are liars. No-one can prove otherwise... you're basically saying that any 'facts' that anyone could use against you are fabricated... and they can't prove otherwise. This stops those with a positive stance getting that killer point across that kills your required bearish stance. This is your safety. If you take this stance, no-one will be able to rationally kill your stance.

10. History - Evoke the middle ages

Well almost. There are plenty of examples in history that are now seen as extremely bad. Just look at the soup queues in the US in the 1929/1930s depression! Since predicting the future is almost impossible, keep eluding to such periods in history. This will help increase the fear and doubt. All it needs is potential buyers to hold off their purchases... fear of the future is your amunition.

11. Lead By Example - Manage your herd

People like to see others doing the same to sort of validate their decisions. Pretend you have bought (or you may even have genuinely bought a rally to day trade!). Then post that you are selling. This then adds more weight to your rationale, irrespective of how weak that rationale may be. And remember, no-one can actually tell what your trades are, so you can make some up.

In fact, emphasise your losses so far. That way people are even less likely to accuse you of bravado, and therefore think you're on the level. If anyone tries to convince you otherwise, you know the drill... fear and doubt. Keep fueling their fear of the unknown... it's future losses that matter, not historic profits. If anyone tries to present facts to help you 'change your mind', refer to section 9.

12. Teamwork

With a bit of practice you'll straight away spot other like minded posters. Join in with them. Recommend their posts, add your own posts (section 4) agreeing with them. Build up a critical mass of people. With enough fear and doubt across posts, uncertainty and lack of individual strength of charactor regarding their investment decisions will help put off many potential buyers. If you play it right, no individual could be seen as trying to manipulate the market, but as a collective, your goal will be achieved.

13. Motiviation - Admit nothing

Don't let people know your motives. Remember section 3? Play on this by pretending your presence is out of concern for shareholders and their finances. You don't afterall like seeing others lose money do you? I said, do you?

Potentially you could pretend to be a buyer in waiting, but expecting much cheaper prices. This has the advantage in the psychology that no-one likes to think the next man has bought the same thing cheaper than they have. If they think another poster looks like they're going to get their shares cheaper than the current price, this will cause current potential buyers to hold off, because they will also want that better price, no matter how (un)likely that price is.

Again, the trend is your friend. Whenever the price drops, bring this one up again to stop the bottom fishers halting the slide. Why buy toady when your fellow poster is going to be buying the same thing cheaper tomorrow! What a Fool you'd be!

If the price turns, just remind everyone it's a sucker's rally. Again, eluding to the fact that their neighbours/fellow posters will again be buying cheaper in a few days time. Afterall, what a Fool you'd be to buy the peak of a bounce in a bear trend.

14. Facts - Be careful

Facts should be avoided at any cost. Never use a fact in your rationale. This is critical. A fact would allow a context to be put on your position. And that's bad. You want to always be able to make things out as being worse than they are. Facts would put a stop in that! If anyone else uses facts, or asks you to use facts, refer to section 9.

You could pretend to use 'facts' but make sure these are tangential to any point of substance. For example, when stating how bad the economy is going to be, don't use sensible facts like IMF predictions, etc. Instead use 'facts' like how long the queues to the bread kitchens were in the great depression. Even if those facts weren't asked for or relevant. Think like a politician.

15. Subtlety

A good card counter will ensure they don't play the perfect game. Likewise, selectively and strategically throw some decoys. Don't make your intentions too obvious by giving away too many clues. In fact, an occasional forray into the bulls camp will help give you a genuine appearance, and make it look like you're basing your opinion on real time facts and events. Making your imminent and inevitable switch back to the bears camp seem all the more genuine.

16. Finally...

Whatever you do, make sure to report this post as soon as possible. Others mustn't be aware of your strategy. Ignorance on the part of others is (financial) bliss (for you).

Which numbers are the idiots representing today. By the way fannie or freddie going on to the FEDs book would see the biggest rally in financials, so big that no shorter in the world would have enough leverage to try and hide it. fannie or freddie being backed by freshly printed money, hot off the press dollars solving the problems as if by magic. Very bad for savers, excellent for folks that hold gold (a new rally), houses and other assets, excellent also for debtors.

See the truth, ignore the lies ;-)

[Deleted User]

Forgot to mention the other great great inflation protector...

BANK SHARES :-)

ad44downey

how long more do we have to wait before HBOS shares hit 7 quid yanti? haha, you really are a laugh.

McSaver

These are now like a few pence above what i bought these shares for (2.75) and i sold then back at 3.32. Could be buying in again.

[Deleted User]

LONDON, Aug 06, 2008 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) --
-- Morgan Stanley has resumed coverage of HBOS Plc with an 'overweight' rating, versus 'equal-weight' previously, saying the stock is priced for a downturn, while UBS has downgraded the bank to 'neutral' from 'buy' on valuation grounds.

In a note to clients on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley said it has resumed coverage of HBOS with a price target of 430 pence, offering 43 percent upside potential, against its previous 460 pence target, because it thinks concerns over the business model, credit costs and structured credit exposures, combined with the capital increase, are overdone.
The broker said its analysis shows HBOS has numerous levers to pull to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of around 15 percent by 2011, and forecast an increase of about 1 billion pounds in pre-provision profits from the 2007 level.
It said it believes HBOS will trade back towards book value as the market becomes more comfortable with the pre-provision outlook and management moves to dispose of those businesses with higher wholesale funding requirements.
UBS said it has cut its rating to 'neutral' following the stock's strong share price run.
The broker said HBOS has bounced around 50 percent from its low less than a month ago and now sits within a couple of percent of its 340 pence price target.
The broker said it has not changed any of its estimates or view on the fundamentals, this is simply a valuation call.
It said funding markets are likely to remain challenging and as such HBOS's stock is likely to remain volatile.

agent_orange_2

down 1.75p to 275p

sabretoothtigger

Just going to copy this up for info, I think this order is still in force. I got it from a spread bet company, I guess that would qualify as naked shorting and be affected even though we're in the uk.
Hbos is not included but I figure its related to trends effecting the price

Short Selling Restrictions on US Stocks
On Monday 21st July the SEC issued an Emergency Order restricting the unprotected short selling on a number of stocks, which has resulted in a longer trade process. Please see below stocks impacted by the order:
BNP Paribas Securities Corp. (BNPQF and BNPQY)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
Barclays PLC (BCS)
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Credit Suisse Group (CS)
Daiwa Securities Group Inc. (DSECY)
Deutsche Bank Group AG (DB)
Allianz SE (AZ)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
Royal Bank ADS (RBS)
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS (HBC and HSI)
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH)
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (MER)
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
UBS AG (UBS)
Freddie Mac (FRE)
Fannie Mae (FNM)

agent_orange_2

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Just going to copy this up for info, I think this order is still in force. I got it from a spread bet company, I guess that would qualify as naked shorting and be affected even though we're in the uk.
Hbos is not included but I figure its related to trends effecting the price

I think this may have lapsed.

alchemistkevin

wow! Thanks. puts things in perspective

agent_orange_2

slightly up on the day. 2.75p to 280.25