Losing momentum

mr.broderick

neas wrote: »

Lol.... Alan you just shot yourself in the foot...

1st argument uses the excuse "Lies damned lies and stats"... i.e stats aren't very useful.

then...

2nd argument uses evidence based on a sample size of 2!.....

How silly...

It's ok neas this isn't an exact science, even the experts look like they may have got this all wrong, i expect an upturn in the summer.

Ma77hew

ianmr65 wrote: »

Oh wait the bbc was making it up....:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

all here 5 page pdf http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/review.htm

Month - Month Index q1 93=100 (sa) - Month Change - Lts 3mths on previous 3 months Monthly index q1 93=100 (nsa) - Annual change - average price.

Apr 358.7 1.0 2.4 359.7 10.2 180,314
May 360.7 0.6 2.2 362.2 10.3 181,584
Jun 364.0 0.9 2.5 367.2 11.1 184,070
Jul 363.6 -0.1 2.0 367.6 9.9 184,270
Aug 365.2 0.4 1.7 366.9 9.6 183,898
Sep 367.1 0.5 1.2 368.5 9.0 184,723
Oct 371.1 1.1 1.4 371.1 9.7 186,044
Nov 367.1 -1.1 1.1 367.3 6.9 184,099
Dec 365.5 -0.5 0.7 363.2 4.8 182,080
Jan 363.8 -0.4 -0.6 360.0 4.2 180,473
Feb 362.1 -0.5 -1.3 357.8 2.7 179,358
Mar 359.4 -0.7 -1.7 357.3 1.1 179,110
Apr 355.5 -1.1 -1.8 356.2 -1.0 178,555

see the numbers decending from 10% to -1% that's your line on the graph.... see the minus numbers in the bottom left hand corner - thats the house price crash.

I think the point Alan M was making regarding graphs was that using different sets of numbers provides a different visual view and can be misleading. For example if the graph was based on the indexes (the second number in) it still shows a downward trend but doesn't show the number dropping of a cliff like the YoY figures.

Also if you take the figures back to Jan 05 using YoY figures you will see a similar drop to those shown on the current graph, between Jan & Sept 05.

Showing data by cutting it off at the highest point doesn't really show the best picture of a trend IMO.

slipthru

mr.broderick wrote: »

It's ok neas this isn't an exact science, even the experts look like they may have got this all wrong, i expect an upturn in the summer.

I expect the upturn to start tomorrow.

Lotus-eater

mr.broderick wrote: »

It's ok neas this isn't an exact science, even the experts look like they may have got this all wrong, i expect an upturn in the summer.

Look forward to looking back in the summer

mr.broderick

Lotus-eater wrote: »

Look forward to looking back in the summer

Don't let it control your life or you'll miss your only opportunity.

brit1234

mr.broderick wrote: »

Don't let it control your life or you'll miss your only opportunity.

Historically house price downturns last for years. There is no reason for the market to pick up, falls will continue this summer guaranteed.

kristianwilliams

mr.broderick wrote: »

It's ok neas this isn't an exact science, even the experts look like they may have got this all wrong, i expect an upturn in the summer.

your a WUM right? you have to be.... seriously????? an upturn in just a few months? :rotfl:


Please tell me your being a WUM.

mr.broderick

kristianwilliams wrote: »

your a WUM right? you have to be.... seriously????? an upturn in just a few months? :rotfl:


Please tell me your being a WUM.

Wind up merchant? Definitely not. The signs are there.

kristianwilliams

what signs? Seriously? what signs? Not being negative here, but if you have some serious signs, I'll believe you. Im open minded enough to realise when Im wrong and I'll admit it if I am. But I've yet to see ONE sign that makes me believe that.

mr.broderick

kristianwilliams wrote: »

what signs? Seriously? what signs? Not being negative here, but if you have some serious signs, I'll believe you. Im open minded enough to realise when Im wrong and I'll admit it if I am. But I've yet to see ONE sign that makes me believe that.

Just concentrate on paying your debts off, then save for a good deposit, see you on here in 3 years when you're straight then we'll talk monkey.