Losing momentum

pamaris

I'd expect things to be in full swing by now... but it is really hard to tell what's going on. I think it is because things are SO regional.

Yes, we're buying a house- a (good sized, very nice) 2BR terrace... got one of the last "good deals" for FTBs as far as mortgages go... anyway ours is 147k (South Manchester)... just had some fun on Rightmove & found out that the same house would be 285k in Cambridge or 190k in York. Prices here in South Man are about 5% down from the peak (at peak, our house would cost £160k). However, in the past 3 months, nothing remotely decent has come onto the market at the same price as ours. I would expect that at this point decent 3BR homes would have come on at 147k... but there aren't even any decent 2BR's at the price... or at least, any that were decent are SSTC. Basically, everything under 160k is grandma's attic, chavtown or former council.

I can't tell what the deal is. My thought is that a 2BR terrace in Cambridge will easily fall by 40% at the very least... and it would still be £171k! Perhaps 20% in York to make them 152k. How much will mine drop? My thought is that my 2BR here in Trafford may drop 15% to 125k. I can't see it going lower than that... it's basically the price they were in 2004.

So anyway, my point is that averages obscure everything. A 2BR terrace at 285k has a much longer way to fall than one at 147k. So, the crash may not have gained much momentum in some areas, but others... am I daft or is 285k for a 2BR terrace completely bonkers!? Maybe 147k is also bonkers... well I know it is, but it won't keep me up at night as our income is reasonable.

I am really thankful we don't live down south-- at least houses here are still moderately affordable. Who can afford 285k?

That said, there are plenty of houses around here that are way over the odds... decent 3 & 4BR homes are 200k-300k. My thought is that in my area 2BR's should be 125k, 3 BR's should be 150k & 4 BR's should be 175k. Does that sound reasonable?

poppy10_2

mr.broderick wrote: »

Poppy you intrigue me. Are you like zammo and that lady carolt and the chap called !!!!!! wishing a crash so you can buy a house?

Are you really missing carol that much that you started this thread to lure her back?

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Estimates are varying between 30% and 10% nominal drops.

I'm more inclined to lean towards the 30% end of the scale myself. Might be worth taking a pop on the futures if they only predict an 11% fall.

From the high of August last year, you could say that they have already dropped 4%.
Add on the 11% you calculated and it makes 15%.

This falls in between the 10 & 30% estimated nominal drops

IveSeenTheLight

pamaris wrote: »

I think it is because things are SO regional.

So anyway, my point is that averages obscure everything.

Very sensible post

Good luck with the house

ianmr65

Ok so lets look at the facts instead of slagging each other off...

1) The imf say the Uk housing market will drop by 27%
2) The bank of england are pricing a 22% drop in their emergency funding packagae
3) The banks are risk pricing 75% ltv mortgages or above
4) Savills the estate agents are saying 20%
5) Mortgage approvals are at their lowest since records began in 1990
6) Mortgage rates bear no relation to BoE base.
7) Reposetion rates are on the rise.
8) The us market has fallen by 30%
9) Many uk mortgage banks have a large investment in the US & uk sub prime mortgage markets.
10) Average house prices are 6 time average salaries.
11) The BoE have said they will not intervene in the housing market and they think a correction is healthy.
12) Nationwide have just announced 1% drop y on y for the first time since 1997





Or

1) I have large but 'notional' wealth tied up in my property(s), and / or high ltv, but have not got much ready cash. Therefore i don't want all the above to be true.




It's up to you to decide who's right and whos wrong in the previous posts.

Jonbvn

ianmr65 wrote: »

Ok so lets look at the facts instead of slagging each other off...
It's up to you to decide who's right and whos wrong in the previous posts.

IM65, Thanks for this post!
(BTW I have truncated it somewhat above)

It is amazing how many posters on this board can foresee the future! Is it tea-leaves or perhaps navel fluff?;)

kristianwilliams

Jonbvn wrote: »

IM65, Thanks for this post!
(BTW I have truncated it somewhat above)

It is amazing how many posters on this board can foresee the future! Is it tea-leaves or perhaps navel fluff?;)

Its also amazing how many posters ignore the facts of what is currently happening to the market in the vain hope that what they fear will not happen. Perhaps its the ostrich syndrome? or maybe just ignorance? seems we have a few that still believe "they only ever go up, this is just a blip"

Nope, the going up bit was the "blip"

LillyJ

kristianwilliams wrote: »

Its also amazing how many posters ignore the facts of what is currently happening to the market in the vain hope that what they fear will not happen. Perhaps its the ostrich syndrome? or maybe just ignorance? seems we have a few that still believe "they only ever go up, this is just a blip"

Nope, the going up bit was the "blip"

I am not denying any form of crash, but "the going up bit was a blip"!????

Yeah, right. That implies they are steadily going down. Which they clearly aren't. Its not like you could by a house in the 70s for a couple of grand is it. Oh wait, you could.

obsessed_saver

ianmr65 wrote: »

This graph is going to get really "tall" in 4 or 5 months time.

ianmr65

obsessed_saver wrote: »

This graph is going to get really "tall" in 4 or 5 months time.

Yeah, it's off the bbc website, but the scamps at housepricecrash, who are, it has to be said, pretty jubilant: have extended the downward curve, and it is pretty tall :eek: