Losing momentum

sarkin

teabelly wrote: »

A few more reports of areas with rising prices in March/April/May and it will all be over. Once the media have forgotten they are supposed to be hyping up a crash it will nothing to report and time to moan about rising fuel and food prices. Fewer new builds available will lead to shortages in popular areas so prices will rise as buyers chase the remaining decent properties. Crap holes and new build flats in crap holes will be decimated.

Continued HPI will help the banks out of their current mess as they last thing they want is a load of repossessions. A small steady rise of a few percent a year over the next 5 years or so is what is best. Small rises will let wages catch up and stop so many ending up in negative equity. The small rises will also reduce speculation. That way those with 95% mortgages will be around the 90% mark at the end of 2 year fixes rather than 100% or more if prices fall.

Ok stop you need to read this house prices just went off a cliff and no one can see the bottom yet

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

IveSeenTheLight

sarkin wrote: »

Ok stop you need to read this house prices just went off a cliff and no one can see the bottom yet

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

Good advice Sarkin. Try reading it.

Markyt

sarkin wrote: »

Ok stop you need to read this house prices just went off a cliff and no one can see the bottom yet

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

Did you read all of it? The bits about the relative percentages on fixed and variable rates and the comparison to the mid 90's?

Paul_N_4

Halifax:

Jan '08: -0.1%
Feb '08: -0.3%
Mar '08: -2.5%

Nationwide:

Jan '08: -0.3%
Feb '08: -0.5%
Mar '08: -0.4%
Apr '08: -1.1%

YoY now gone -ve 1%

mr.broderick wrote: »

Anybody else feel that the so called crash is losing a bit of momentum?...

The figures seem to contradict what you feel.

beingjdc

It's gaining momentum in the futures market - mid-point of the December 2010 spread is now £156k for the average house. So you'd be better off renting and buying a futures contract than buying a house, even if you expect the crash to stall.

Treadmill

An EA I spoke to yesterday told me house prices will be rising again by September so buy now lol

WTF?_2

PasturesNew wrote: »

I have been surprised at the speed and massive long-term implications of it to be honest.

I expected more of a long, slow and orderly crash with bits being chipped off here and there. What seems to have happened is more catastrophic events occurring weekly.

Actually, it's how long it's taken to happen that is the real surprise here. We should have had corrections in 2001, 2003 and 2005. Well, we did have the beginnings of a decline in 2005 but a swift interest rate cut kickstarted the debt party again.

By my reckoning, we are at the very least 3 years 'late' here. What seems to be happening is that once the credit crunch hit it just tipped things over the edge and the pace of events from here on in will be ever quicker.

That's what happens when you use every trick to delay the inevitable - the fall is that much harder.

kristianwilliams

Problem today is short attention spans. :rotfl:

Its crashing!!! AHAHHHH...bored now, you can stop.


Nope, sorry, but this is LONG TERM. Peoples fixed rates hav'nt all finished, and the crises is over, the damage is done, lets move on. No, its starting. People's fixed rates will keep ending over the next four years. The credit is no longer there to allow them to remortgage onto a new better deal. Thats the crux of it.

Someone who's deal is up next year, will still have problems. They then may cope for another year trying to make it, then decide to cut their loses. So thats what? two years before they are affected?

You then have got "blips" where idiots go "AHHHH........oh bored now, its over" and go spend money on a house thinking "This is a deal, its down 15% from last year, they'll go back up soon" and put in an offer just over to get it.

Only for them then to realise, a house is for life, not just for christmas.

:T

WTF?_2

beingjdc wrote: »

It's gaining momentum in the futures market - mid-point of the December 2010 spread is now £156k for the average house. So you'd be better off renting and buying a futures contract than buying a house, even if you expect the crash to stall.

What's the current average price figure - something like 200k isn't it?

EDIT: Just saw - 178k (from the BBC report on the YOY negative.

Hmm, that works out at only an 11% drop. Not really that much, I reckon they've underestimated seriously.

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Originally Posted by beingjdc
It's gaining momentum in the futures market - mid-point of the December 2010 spread is now £156k for the average house. So you'd be better off renting and buying a futures contract than buying a house, even if you expect the crash to stall.

What's the current average price figure - something like 200k isn't it?

EDIT: Just saw - 178k (from the BBC report on the YOY negative.

Hmm, that works out at only an 11% drop. Not really that much, I reckon they've underestimated seriously.

Come on now bears, get your figures straight, or are you going to argue against experts cause it's not what you want to hear?