Losing momentum

Alan_M_2

boinging wrote: »

It's based on the Nationwide and Halifax reported figures as far I can tell.

Also it's interesting no one ever questioned these figures on the way up.

The interesting part of this is the "As far as I can tell"...I always question every graph I'm provided with, as without a set statistics from which they are compiled they are wholly irrelevant.

ianmr65

Alan_M wrote: »

Whilst the drops indicated in the graph above are wholly possible I'm not sure the timescale is realistic (making the graph appear to be a cliff rather than a reasonably steep slope.

Corrections don't happen overnight....

Erm the timescale is month by month. ie from jan 2007 to date. The fall has happened over the last 6 months... whichever way you plot it this is a very sharp correction.
Not sure how this can be viewed as unrealistic. would you rather have it plotted by days...? The most significant part of the graph is the last month 1% fall. THIS implies that in non rpi adjusted terms house prices are falling by 12% a year, make that 16% with rpi.

The figures are not anecodotal, not based on offers, they are based on average sale prices... and have been used to track the market since the 90's...

On this basis we are having the mother of an overnight correction!!

Alan_M_2

brit1234 wrote: »

The graph is very correct, its just with any figures there are ways to exaggerate or play down trends in graphs and other formats. What you need to do is look at the basic figures over a reasonable cycle, understand how they were compiled and then you can have a reasonable idea of the trend.

Correction can happen overnight, forget the 80s & 90s this is a completely different beast. A better comparison of what is happening is a comparison of the dot com crash. Both markets were based highly on upward speculation before their crash, there was nothing tangiable holding it up forming huge bubbles. Some would argue that that this house price crash is a direct continuation of the dot com crash through investors rapidly shifting funds from one bubble to another. What ever the truth there has never been such a huge international housing bubble created in history. From what I have seen the more exaggerated the bubble the more damage it does very quickly.

I would beg to differ, there are all ready 30% + drops in London, Manchester and else where. Yes I know there will be people unwilling to sell at these prices in general but the longer this goes on they will change their minds.

Our opinions differ, and in 12 months time we'll find out who's correct.

I have first hand evidence of reasonable drops

my business partners property (in Kent) on the market for £310K in Nov 07 - at what the neighbours house sold - no taking offers at £272K

A friend of his today whose house in the market at £450K (In Surrey) is getting weekly offers around £430K plus with no slow up on viewings.....and no shortage of interest.

Both are fact, both would provide very different graphs......

Alan_M_2

ianmr65 wrote: »

Erm the timescale is month by month. ie from jan 2007 to date. The fall has happened over the last 6 months... whichever way you plot it this is a very sharp correction.
Not sure how this can be viewed as unrealistic. would you rather have it plotted by days...? The most significant part of the graph is the last month 1% fall. THIS implies that in non rpi adjusted terms house prices are falling by 12% a year, make that 16% with rpi.

The figures are not anecdotal, not based on offers, they are based on average sale prices... and have been used to track the market since the 90's...

On this basis we are having the mother of an overnight correction!!

Feel free to provide us with the figures from which the graph was compiled.
BTW, I do feel we're headlong in a correction, I just take a lot of these graphs with a pinch of salt. After all they are visual interpretation of statistics, lets have the statistics and the parameters from which they were complied and be allowed to make up our own minds.

brit1234

Alan_M wrote: »

Our opinions differ, and in 12 months time we'll find out who's correct.

I have first hand evidence of reasonable drops

my business partners property (in Kent) on the market for £310K in Nov 07 - at what the neighbours house sold - no taking offers at £272K

A friend of his today whose house in the market at £450K (In Surrey) is getting weekly offers around £430K plus with no slow up on viewings.....and no shortage of interest.

Both are fact, both would provide very different graphs......

I'm happy with your 12 month challenge, I just won my last 12 month one on other sites on when the big downturn would begin. I was very outnumbered back then.:D

Oh buy the way I do dabble in risk analysis

As for you figures, I don't dispute them. I have my own figures that show the other end of the spectrum. I think it is reasonable to say at this stage the national truth is somewhere in the middle if you plot a linear trend through a scatter graph. However I believe the trend will continue down especially as British Banks are going to be hit by the second part of credit crash in the next few months ie British sub prime (Liar loans, buy to let interest only mortgages, mortgage fraud).

The vulnerability is still there and not reduced

ianmr65

Oh wait the bbc was making it up....:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

all here - 5 page pdf - http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/review.htm

Month - Month Index q1 93=100 (sa) - Month Change - Lts 3mths on previous 3 months Monthly index q1 93=100 (nsa) - Annual change - average price.

Apr 358.7 1.0 2.4 359.7 10.2 180,314
May 360.7 0.6 2.2 362.2 10.3 181,584
Jun 364.0 0.9 2.5 367.2 11.1 184,070
Jul 363.6 -0.1 2.0 367.6 9.9 184,270
Aug 365.2 0.4 1.7 366.9 9.6 183,898
Sep 367.1 0.5 1.2 368.5 9.0 184,723
Oct 371.1 1.1 1.4 371.1 9.7 186,044
Nov 367.1 -1.1 1.1 367.3 6.9 184,099
Dec 365.5 -0.5 0.7 363.2 4.8 182,080
Jan 363.8 -0.4 -0.6 360.0 4.2 180,473
Feb 362.1 -0.5 -1.3 357.8 2.7 179,358
Mar 359.4 -0.7 -1.7 357.3 1.1 179,110
Apr 355.5 -1.1 -1.8 356.2 -1.0 178,555

see the numbers decending from 10% to -1% that's your line on the graph.... see the minus numbers in the bottom left hand corner - thats the house price crash.

ianmr65

Alan_M wrote: »

Our opinions differ, and in 12 months time we'll find out who's correct.

I have first hand evidence of reasonable drops

my business partners property (in Kent) on the market for £310K in Nov 07 - at what the neighbours house sold - no taking offers at £272K

A friend of his today whose house in the market at £450K (In Surrey) is getting weekly offers around £430K plus with no slow up on viewings.....and no shortage of interest.

Both are fact, both would provide very different graphs......

Yeah so we'll take two examples chosen at random, that you happen to know about, and set them against an index of all the properties that the nationwide have ever mortgaged, from 1990, and present them as a comparable analysis....:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Kaida

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I'm 30, and I remember it well, it was on the news, my parents were discussing it, etc.

I also am aware of it, although I was about 5 years old at the time. I'm 22 now, but I grew up with very little money available because my parents got stung in the crash.

neas

Lol.... Alan you just shot yourself in the foot...

1st argument uses the excuse "Lies damned lies and stats"... i.e stats aren't very useful.

then...

2nd argument uses evidence based on a sample size of 2!.....

How silly...

mr.broderick

Wondering if the credit crunch fears, that according to recent news may have been exaggerated, whether this will slow the crash brigade even more, must admit the 20% falls that some commentators were calling may be a tad high on reflection.