Premium Bond Winner ?

ForumUser7

Zerforax said:

eskbanker said:

Eirambler said:

Have they given a breakdown of how the extra fund will be distributed - having added more £50s and £100s recently maybe it's time to add in some additional £25 prizes to minimise the likelihood of someone with a decent amount drawing a blank a few months in a row. It's always nice to get a "win", even if it's just £25.

The revised prize breakdown is shown in the press release linked a few posts ago.

Like the other recent rises, the likelihood of winning a prize remains the same, at 24,000 to one per bond per month, so the fact that the additional prizes aren't £25s doesn't signify a reduced chance of winning but simply a higher average prize value.

So really want you want a holding of at least £24,000?

If I've understood it right:

1 in every 24,000 bonds will win a prize, but this isn't necessarily evenly distributed. I.e. If you were to list in numerical/alphabetical order every bond held by everyone combined, and take a random continuous section of 24,000 bonds from that list, there may not be a winning bond there, but another selection of 24,000 may have multiple. It really is the luck of the draw.

As far as I understand, every bond you (or anyone else) hold has a probability of winning a prize of 1/24000.

This means the more bonds you hold, it is more likely you'll win a prize, but realistically, someone with less bonds may end up winning more prizes than you, because the chance of each bond being picked is equal.

Additionally, I think bonds are independent - i.e. if you win 1 prize on one bond, it does not affect the probability of you winning another prize on another bond

So in answer to your question, you want the highest holding you can, as you have more opportunities to win prizes, but it is not the case that having £24,000 in there guarantees 1 prize, and having £48,000 in there guarantees 2 prizes etc. I have £100 in there, I want to be in with a chance (or 100 chances!), and I know it is unlikely I'll win anything soon, but I prefer to have interest paid for now.

RedImp_2

ForumUser7 said:

Zerforax said:

eskbanker said:

Eirambler said:

Have they given a breakdown of how the extra fund will be distributed - having added more £50s and £100s recently maybe it's time to add in some additional £25 prizes to minimise the likelihood of someone with a decent amount drawing a blank a few months in a row. It's always nice to get a "win", even if it's just £25.

The revised prize breakdown is shown in the press release linked a few posts ago.

Like the other recent rises, the likelihood of winning a prize remains the same, at 24,000 to one per bond per month, so the fact that the additional prizes aren't £25s doesn't signify a reduced chance of winning but simply a higher average prize value.

So really want you want a holding of at least £24,000?

If I've understood it right:

1 in every 24,000 bonds will win a prize, but this isn't necessarily evenly distributed. I.e. If you were to list in numerical/alphabetical order every bond held by everyone combined, and take a random continuous section of 24,000 bonds from that list, there may not be a winning bond there, but another selection of 24,000 may have multiple. It really is the luck of the draw.

As far as I understand, every bond you (or anyone else) hold has a probability of winning a prize of 1/24000.

This means the more bonds you hold, it is more likely you'll win a prize, but realistically, someone with less bonds may end up winning more prizes than you, because the chance of each bond being picked is equal.

Additionally, I think bonds are independent - i.e. if you win 1 prize on one bond, it does not affect the probability of you winning another prize on another bond

So in answer to your question, you want the highest holding you can, as you have more opportunities to win prizes, but it is not the case that having £24,000 in there guarantees 1 prize, and having £48,000 in there guarantees 2 prizes etc. I have £100 in there, I want to be in with a chance (or 100 chances!), and I know it is unlikely I'll win anything soon, but I prefer to have interest paid for now.

It is funny how it works out, for example I won 4 prizes in December and zero in January (on max holding).   Law of averages I should have won 2 prizes in each month (perhaps should is the wrong word!)
Does seem that bond numbers closer together seem to get drawn out, or perhaps that’s me getting carried away 

eskbanker

RedImp_2 said:
It is funny how it works out, for example I won 4 prizes in December and zero in January (on max holding).   Law of averages I should have won 2 prizes in each month (perhaps should is the wrong word!)

It's the law of averages that brings your winnings closer to the average the longer you enter the draw, but in any given draw the chances of a maximum holding winning exactly two prizes are actually relatively small.

justwantedtosay

eskbanker said:

... in any given draw the chances of a maximum holding winning exactly two prizes are actually relatively small.

My one case doesn't prove you wrong [in fact I agree with you] but I won exactly two prizes in eight of last year's twelve draws and 23 prizes in total, when I 'should' have had 24, so I can't help expecting two wins a month now and being disappointed when I don't get them. Sadly, all those wins were only £25 each. 

Pointless fact from someone with a calculator and too much time on their hands...
We talk here of 'luck'; well if you were really lucky and your full holding won all the top prizes you could take almost £64m from one draw. I wonder what the odds of that would be! It's still not as much as a big Euromillions win though, not that I'd be complaining. I'd buy the local Wildlife Trust a worthwhile chunk of land in an appropriate location and cover the cost of rewilding it - and building me a small home in a quiet corner of it.

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

... in any given draw the chances of a maximum holding winning exactly two prizes are actually relatively small.

My one case doesn't prove you wrong [in fact I agree with you] but I won exactly two prizes in eight of last year's twelve draws and 23 prizes in total, when I 'should' have had 24, so I can't help expecting two wins a month now and being disappointed when I don't get them.

It is unusual for so many months to return exactly two prizes, so personally I wouldn't see that as a realistic expectation in the future, even though most months should be between one and three.  One month in every eight should be a blank, on average....

justwantedtosay

eskbanker said:

It is unusual for so many months to return exactly two prizes, so personally I wouldn't see that as a realistic expectation in the future, even though most months should be between one and three.  One month in every eight should be a blank, on average....

I had 2 x £25 every month from April to October inc. - you can see why it became the norm. I still expect things to average out pretty close to two a month over a year, and closer still over a longer period.
It's encouraging to see that a prize of £500 or more - though probably not "more"! - 'should' now come your way during any given period of about 50 months [43 months with new rates from March], it was more like once in 25 years just a year ago. [Max holding]

One day....

taylornj

After a few months of nothing on £50k, this month highest amount I've won ever a single £500 win. 1.95% won over the tax year, highest winnings in a single tax year.

Swipe

I finally got a decent prize, £200 (£100, £50 & 2 X £25) on max holding.

plumb1_2

1x£25, 1x £50 and 2x £100 this month 😊

fly-catchers

2 x £25, 1x £100 and 1 x £500 on max holding.