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justwantedtosay

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Obviously I don't expect to win the 'right' amount every month but hope it will at least average out over the year.

In general, the longer you wait, the closer to the expected return you should get (from either direction) - a year should be better than a month or two, but multiple years will be a more realistic measure, as you'll see if you play about with different periods on the MSE PB calculator (when it's working).

The problem there is that if you wait long enough you'll be likely to win something better than £100 which will completely skew the figures and reasoning, and I only want to think on an annual basis. Everybody should get 3.15% if they wait long enough. I'm 'expecting' £1,250 - 2.5% - a year and will be pleased if it's more and disappointed if it's less. Any prize of £500+ would be a complete but very welcome surprise; I'm still waiting for my first £100 prize. The number of bonds is more significant than the timescale, someone with the single bond they got for their christening can't plan around an income from NS&I.

As for the calculator - I wish the chances of winning the jackpot over five years really were that high!

diystarter7

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Obviously I don't expect to win the 'right' amount every month but hope it will at least average out over the year.

In general, the longer you wait, the closer to the expected return you should get (from either direction) - a year should be better than a month or two, but multiple years will be a more realistic measure, as you'll see if you play about with different periods on the MSE PB calculator (when it's working).

The problem there is that if you wait long enough you'll be likely to win something better than £100 which will completely skew the figures and reasoning, and I only want to think on an annual basis. Everybody should get 3.15% if they wait long enough. I'm 'expecting' £1,250 - 2.5% - a year and will be pleased if it's more and disappointed if it's less. Any prize of £500+ would be a complete but very welcome surprise; I'm still waiting for my first £100 prize. The number of bonds is more significant than the timescale, someone with the single bond they got for their christening can't plan around an income from NS&I.

As for the calculator - I wish the chances of winning the jackpot over five years really were that high!

We've held PB's alsmo 40 years pluc with one gap of about 12 months where none were held.
For years we've held the max x 2 amounts, never even got a 100 prize until this draw never mind one higher.

Thanks

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Obviously I don't expect to win the 'right' amount every month but hope it will at least average out over the year.

In general, the longer you wait, the closer to the expected return you should get (from either direction) - a year should be better than a month or two, but multiple years will be a more realistic measure, as you'll see if you play about with different periods on the MSE PB calculator (when it's working).

The problem there is that if you wait long enough you'll be likely to win something better than £100 which will completely skew the figures and reasoning, and I only want to think on an annual basis. Everybody should get 3.15% if they wait long enough. I'm 'expecting' £1,250 - 2.5% - a year and will be pleased if it's more and disappointed if it's less. Any prize of £500+ would be a complete but very welcome surprise; I'm still waiting for my first £100 prize. The number of bonds is more significant than the timescale, someone with the single bond they got for their christening can't plan around an income from NS&I.

Nothing stopping you from thinking on an annual basis if you choose to measure returns in that way, but that will lead to you being pleased sometimes and disappointed at others, compared with taking the long term cumulative picture.

The number of bonds isn't necessarily more significant than the timescale, in that it's the total number of draw entries made that drives the outcome - in other words, the expected outcome from £10,000 worth for five years is identical to holding £50,000 for one year (assuming constant competition rules throughout).  However, it is true that those with small holdings will experience lumpier returns than those with larger holdings for longer periods, even though they'll ultimately average out the same, in that the vast majority of those with just £1 will win nothing, but a few will earn a return of 2500% or more!

justwantedtosay

Nothing stopping you from thinking on an annual basis if you choose to measure returns in that way, but that will lead to you being pleased sometimes and disappointed at others, compared with taking the long term cumulative picture.

I reckon most people posting here are doing so because they are pleased or disappointed with the latest draw and not looking at the long term results. I think of all my finances on an annual timescale, hence I'll pencil in £1,250 from PBs. I expect it will be somewhere between £1,000 and £1,500 and I won't be overly pleased or disappointed.

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

Nothing stopping you from thinking on an annual basis if you choose to measure returns in that way, but that will lead to you being pleased sometimes and disappointed at others, compared with taking the long term cumulative picture.

I reckon most people posting here are doing so because they are pleased or disappointed with the latest draw and not looking at the long term results. I think of all my finances on an annual timescale, hence I'll pencil in £1,250 from PBs. I expect it will be somewhere between £1,000 and £1,500 and I won't be overly pleased or disappointed.

Yes, you should have roughly a 50% chance of winnings being in that sort of range (and obviously about 50% of not being in that sort of range!) over a year, whereas over, say, five years, your chances of being within 20% above or below 'par' would be substantially more than 50%.

In terms of people's motivations for posting on this thread, it was originally set up to test the (discredited) theory that newer bonds win more prizes, but descended into more generic 'show and tell' territory - it's true that it attracts both those who are smug and those who are horrified, but those in the latter category are often ill-informed about randomness and probability and so are more inclined to believe myths!

Swipe

I think this is one of the best threads on here. I enjoy seeing what everyone is winning (or not)

BooJewels

Me too @Swipe - it makes me happy when someone else does at least get a decent result - when, bar one month, my own have been somewhat underwhelming.  At least it proves what's possible. 

I've cashed a chunk of mine in this week to add to a fix that I think will do better for me, just leaving enough for a frisson of excitement to the start of each month, where I live in perpetual hope.

onthebench

ljayljay said:

Congratulations on your good fortune & great timing for a big win.

One thing that has always interested me & you may be able to answer is the notification timing of a large win.

As many will already be aware the large wins of £5K plus are published early to include winner location but also specifically the winning bond number. I have always therefore assumed that if I was lucky enough to win £5K or more, excluding a millionaire visit, I would be contacted either by phone or email in advance of the smaller wins being announced. Did you receive any earlier communication at all? If not, I will look forward to checking the app with greater anticipation in the future as I have always thought that without prior notification £1K would be the max I could win.

PS If there is no prior notification, I still won't be tempted to go through the published list in advance but will retain hope of a big big win right up until I check next.

No there was no early notification, the first I knew of it was checking the app. My wife received the usual “you’ve won a prize” email on Feb 4th but no indication it was a bigger proze. 

In previous months I would often go through the “big prize” list on the first of the month looking for matching location and holding amount but I hadn’t bothered this month. 

wirchow

I bought 20k about 3 years ago and have had dribs and drabs. Persuaded family to buy a load and they've had similar. But it's a lot of fun on the family WhatsApp every month.
Then last Thursday my daughter won £50k. Dad's stock has markedly risen. 

onthebench

wirchow said:

I bought 20k about 3 years ago and have had dribs and drabs. Persuaded family to buy a load and they've had similar. But it's a lot of fun on the family WhatsApp every month.
Then last Thursday my daughter won £50k. Dad's stock has markedly risen. 

Amazing! Hope she treats her dad to something nice!