Premium Bond Winner ?

Swipe

Oh dear, my PB rate of returns has plummeted with each prize fund increase. Happy about the Direct Saver hike though.

justwantedtosay

Swipe said:

Oh dear, my PB rate of returns has plummeted with each prize fund increase. Happy about the Direct Saver hike though.

Same here. With MSE's 'average luck' I should have had 4 prizes of £50 or £100 since October but only had the one of £50 and no £100 wins, along with a few £25s.

I see I won exactly the same amount (£250) in the five months to September 2022, when rates were 1 and 1.4%, as in the five months since, when rates were between 2.2 and 3.15% - with only £50 in the last two draws, when rates were 3% or more. If this trend continues I'll be having to pay NS&I if the rates go much higher.

Oh well, fingers crossed for March.

ljayljay

onthebench said:

ljayljay said:

Congratulations on your good fortune & great timing for a big win.

One thing that has always interested me & you may be able to answer is the notification timing of a large win.

As many will already be aware the large wins of £5K plus are published early to include winner location but also specifically the winning bond number. I have always therefore assumed that if I was lucky enough to win £5K or more, excluding a millionaire visit, I would be contacted either by phone or email in advance of the smaller wins being announced. Did you receive any earlier communication at all? If not, I will look forward to checking the app with greater anticipation in the future as I have always thought that without prior notification £1K would be the max I could win.

PS If there is no prior notification, I still won't be tempted to go through the published list in advance but will retain hope of a big big win right up until I check next.

No there was no early notification, the first I knew of it was checking the app. My wife received the usual “you’ve won a prize” email on Feb 4th but no indication it was a bigger proze. 

In previous months I would often go through the “big prize” list on the first of the month looking for matching location and holding amount but I hadn’t bothered this month. 

Thanks that is good to know.....will open the app with greater anticipation for the next draw....especially with even more large prizes announced .

Eirambler

Good to see the prize fund raised again. The recent rises haven't fed through to me in winnings yet, after beating the prize rate for each of the first eight months of the financial year my luck has gone cold in 2023 and I have fallen well below the rate the last two months, including a disastrous £0 off £45k in bonds this month! Still ahead of the prize rate over the course of the financial year for now though.

Have they given a breakdown of how the extra fund will be distributed - having added more £50s and £100s recently maybe it's time to add in some additional £25 prizes to minimise the likelihood of someone with a decent amount drawing a blank a few months in a row. It's always nice to get a "win", even if it's just £25.

eskbanker

Eirambler said:

Have they given a breakdown of how the extra fund will be distributed - having added more £50s and £100s recently maybe it's time to add in some additional £25 prizes to minimise the likelihood of someone with a decent amount drawing a blank a few months in a row. It's always nice to get a "win", even if it's just £25.

The revised prize breakdown is shown in the press release linked a few posts ago.

Like the other recent rises, the likelihood of winning a prize remains the same, at 24,000 to one per bond per month, so the fact that the additional prizes aren't £25s doesn't signify a reduced chance of winning but simply a higher average prize value.

Zerforax

eskbanker said:

Eirambler said:

Have they given a breakdown of how the extra fund will be distributed - having added more £50s and £100s recently maybe it's time to add in some additional £25 prizes to minimise the likelihood of someone with a decent amount drawing a blank a few months in a row. It's always nice to get a "win", even if it's just £25.

The revised prize breakdown is shown in the press release linked a few posts ago.

Like the other recent rises, the likelihood of winning a prize remains the same, at 24,000 to one per bond per month, so the fact that the additional prizes aren't £25s doesn't signify a reduced chance of winning but simply a higher average prize value.

So really want you want a holding of at least £24,000?

eskbanker

Zerforax said:

eskbanker said:

Eirambler said:

Have they given a breakdown of how the extra fund will be distributed - having added more £50s and £100s recently maybe it's time to add in some additional £25 prizes to minimise the likelihood of someone with a decent amount drawing a blank a few months in a row. It's always nice to get a "win", even if it's just £25.

The revised prize breakdown is shown in the press release linked a few posts ago.

Like the other recent rises, the likelihood of winning a prize remains the same, at 24,000 to one per bond per month, so the fact that the additional prizes aren't £25s doesn't signify a reduced chance of winning but simply a higher average prize value.

So really want you want a holding of at least £24,000?

Not really, odds of 24,000 to one doesn't mean that you're guaranteed a prize if you have a £24,000 holding - it just means that on average that's what the most likely outcome is.  It's all a linear sliding scale though, rather than any particularly significant step changes, and the more you have and/or the longer you hold them, the higher your cumulative winnings should be, i.e. your expected winnings from £24K for a year would be the same as £12K for two years or £48K for six months....

ForumUser7

Zerforax said:

eskbanker said:

Eirambler said:

Have they given a breakdown of how the extra fund will be distributed - having added more £50s and £100s recently maybe it's time to add in some additional £25 prizes to minimise the likelihood of someone with a decent amount drawing a blank a few months in a row. It's always nice to get a "win", even if it's just £25.

The revised prize breakdown is shown in the press release linked a few posts ago.

Like the other recent rises, the likelihood of winning a prize remains the same, at 24,000 to one per bond per month, so the fact that the additional prizes aren't £25s doesn't signify a reduced chance of winning but simply a higher average prize value.

So really want you want a holding of at least £24,000?

If I've understood it right:

1 in every 24,000 bonds will win a prize, but this isn't necessarily evenly distributed. I.e. If you were to list in numerical/alphabetical order every bond held by everyone combined, and take a random continuous section of 24,000 bonds from that list, there may not be a winning bond there, but another selection of 24,000 may have multiple. It really is the luck of the draw.

As far as I understand, every bond you (or anyone else) hold has a probability of winning a prize of 1/24000.

This means the more bonds you hold, it is more likely you'll win a prize, but realistically, someone with less bonds may end up winning more prizes than you, because the chance of each bond being picked is equal.

Additionally, I think bonds are independent - i.e. if you win 1 prize on one bond, it does not affect the probability of you winning another prize on another bond

So in answer to your question, you want the highest holding you can, as you have more opportunities to win prizes, but it is not the case that having £24,000 in there guarantees 1 prize, and having £48,000 in there guarantees 2 prizes etc. I have £100 in there, I want to be in with a chance (or 100 chances!), and I know it is unlikely I'll win anything soon, but I prefer to have interest paid for now.

RedImp_2

ForumUser7 said:

Zerforax said:

eskbanker said:

Eirambler said:

Have they given a breakdown of how the extra fund will be distributed - having added more £50s and £100s recently maybe it's time to add in some additional £25 prizes to minimise the likelihood of someone with a decent amount drawing a blank a few months in a row. It's always nice to get a "win", even if it's just £25.

The revised prize breakdown is shown in the press release linked a few posts ago.

Like the other recent rises, the likelihood of winning a prize remains the same, at 24,000 to one per bond per month, so the fact that the additional prizes aren't £25s doesn't signify a reduced chance of winning but simply a higher average prize value.

So really want you want a holding of at least £24,000?

If I've understood it right:

1 in every 24,000 bonds will win a prize, but this isn't necessarily evenly distributed. I.e. If you were to list in numerical/alphabetical order every bond held by everyone combined, and take a random continuous section of 24,000 bonds from that list, there may not be a winning bond there, but another selection of 24,000 may have multiple. It really is the luck of the draw.

As far as I understand, every bond you (or anyone else) hold has a probability of winning a prize of 1/24000.

This means the more bonds you hold, it is more likely you'll win a prize, but realistically, someone with less bonds may end up winning more prizes than you, because the chance of each bond being picked is equal.

Additionally, I think bonds are independent - i.e. if you win 1 prize on one bond, it does not affect the probability of you winning another prize on another bond

So in answer to your question, you want the highest holding you can, as you have more opportunities to win prizes, but it is not the case that having £24,000 in there guarantees 1 prize, and having £48,000 in there guarantees 2 prizes etc. I have £100 in there, I want to be in with a chance (or 100 chances!), and I know it is unlikely I'll win anything soon, but I prefer to have interest paid for now.

It is funny how it works out, for example I won 4 prizes in December and zero in January (on max holding).   Law of averages I should have won 2 prizes in each month (perhaps should is the wrong word!)
Does seem that bond numbers closer together seem to get drawn out, or perhaps that’s me getting carried away 

eskbanker

RedImp_2 said:
It is funny how it works out, for example I won 4 prizes in December and zero in January (on max holding).   Law of averages I should have won 2 prizes in each month (perhaps should is the wrong word!)

It's the law of averages that brings your winnings closer to the average the longer you enter the draw, but in any given draw the chances of a maximum holding winning exactly two prizes are actually relatively small.