Premium Bond Winner ?

ljayljay

onthebench said:

becky_rtw said:

onthebench said:

My wife and I each had the full amount in PBs and have gradually been withdrawing to pay for a house renovation. Took the last £6000 out of my wife’s account this month but waited until after the draw date. 

Glad we did as I checked the app this afternoon. 

Two prizes. 

Prize 1 of 2: £25. 

Prize 2 of 2: £5,000. 

Well done! Hopefully can pay for some more renovation stuff or new bits of furniture 😎

Thanks. The timing was amazing as we were actually sat in the kitchen looking at the last few unplastered walls and feeling sorry for ourselves as the project has dragged on for so long and taken us over budget, and we were wondering where we weee going to find the money to actually furnish it. 

That was when I checked the prize checker app!

Congratulations on your good fortune & great timing for a big win.

One thing that has always interested me & you may be able to answer is the notification timing of a large win.

As many will already be aware the large wins of £5K plus are published early to include winner location but also specifically the winning bond number. I have always therefore assumed that if I was lucky enough to win £5K or more, excluding a millionaire visit, I would be contacted either by phone or email in advance of the smaller wins being announced. Did you receive any earlier communication at all? If not, I will look forward to checking the app with greater anticipation in the future as I have always thought that without prior notification £1K would be the max I could win.

PS If there is no prior notification, I still won't be tempted to go through the published list in advance but will retain hope of a big big win right up until I check next.

BoxerfanUK

ME: full holding £50.00 SHE: full holding £0.00
  

Cell

£25 on £25,000.

£250 in a year, so 1% which is probably below average. I've never in all my years won a prize above £25. I wonder what the odds are for even £50?

TadleyBaggie

Cell said:

£25 on £25,000.

£250 in a year, so 1% which is probably below average. I've never in all my years won a prize above £25. I wonder what the odds are for even £50?

My wife and have had a few £50's and £100's in the year we have held (£80K between us). We got £1550 in a year, so very close to 2%.

diystarter7

BoxerfanUK said:

ME: full holding £50.00 SHE: full holding £0.00
  

Hi

Proof if there was ever the need for that is the fact that a few get the bigger prizes, many just below interest rates and at times even with max holdings you get zero.

Though we are not 40% tax payers atm, those with at least 50k to save and 40% or more in taxk, p bonds is good.

Thnaks

justwantedtosay

I went over my winnings from the start of 2022 comparing them not to the headline rate but to what I'd "expect" to win - for example with a full holding you can reasonable expect one £25 prize and one of either £50 or £100 so between £75 and £125 is neither good nor bad, just OK. I'm not allowing for any prize better than £100 as I don't really expect one, though I 'should' now get one once in any period of about 50 months.

Anyway, it was rather disappointing to find that 4 months were below the expected rate and all the rest were within the bounds of expectations, with not a single 'good' month, so I'm quite a bit behind. There was a string of draws when I 'should' have won 2 x £25 and did - so exactly matching what was expected. Even the standout month with five prizes didn't break the mould as they were all of £25 - it just used up all my 'luck' and I've had an APR of 0.6% since! Indeed, 3 of the 4 bad months have come since November, when rates have been better, with just 2 prizes other than the 5 in December.

Obviously I don't expect to win the 'right' amount every month but hope it will at least average out over the year. I do think I'm due some luck soon though.

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

Obviously I don't expect to win the 'right' amount every month but hope it will at least average out over the year.

In general, the longer you wait, the closer to the expected return you should get (from either direction) - a year should be better than a month or two, but multiple years will be a more realistic measure, as you'll see if you play about with different periods on the MSE PB calculator (when it's working).

justwantedtosay

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Obviously I don't expect to win the 'right' amount every month but hope it will at least average out over the year.

In general, the longer you wait, the closer to the expected return you should get (from either direction) - a year should be better than a month or two, but multiple years will be a more realistic measure, as you'll see if you play about with different periods on the MSE PB calculator (when it's working).

The problem there is that if you wait long enough you'll be likely to win something better than £100 which will completely skew the figures and reasoning, and I only want to think on an annual basis. Everybody should get 3.15% if they wait long enough. I'm 'expecting' £1,250 - 2.5% - a year and will be pleased if it's more and disappointed if it's less. Any prize of £500+ would be a complete but very welcome surprise; I'm still waiting for my first £100 prize. The number of bonds is more significant than the timescale, someone with the single bond they got for their christening can't plan around an income from NS&I.

As for the calculator - I wish the chances of winning the jackpot over five years really were that high!

diystarter7

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Obviously I don't expect to win the 'right' amount every month but hope it will at least average out over the year.

In general, the longer you wait, the closer to the expected return you should get (from either direction) - a year should be better than a month or two, but multiple years will be a more realistic measure, as you'll see if you play about with different periods on the MSE PB calculator (when it's working).

The problem there is that if you wait long enough you'll be likely to win something better than £100 which will completely skew the figures and reasoning, and I only want to think on an annual basis. Everybody should get 3.15% if they wait long enough. I'm 'expecting' £1,250 - 2.5% - a year and will be pleased if it's more and disappointed if it's less. Any prize of £500+ would be a complete but very welcome surprise; I'm still waiting for my first £100 prize. The number of bonds is more significant than the timescale, someone with the single bond they got for their christening can't plan around an income from NS&I.

As for the calculator - I wish the chances of winning the jackpot over five years really were that high!

We've held PB's alsmo 40 years pluc with one gap of about 12 months where none were held.
For years we've held the max x 2 amounts, never even got a 100 prize until this draw never mind one higher.

Thanks

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Obviously I don't expect to win the 'right' amount every month but hope it will at least average out over the year.

In general, the longer you wait, the closer to the expected return you should get (from either direction) - a year should be better than a month or two, but multiple years will be a more realistic measure, as you'll see if you play about with different periods on the MSE PB calculator (when it's working).

The problem there is that if you wait long enough you'll be likely to win something better than £100 which will completely skew the figures and reasoning, and I only want to think on an annual basis. Everybody should get 3.15% if they wait long enough. I'm 'expecting' £1,250 - 2.5% - a year and will be pleased if it's more and disappointed if it's less. Any prize of £500+ would be a complete but very welcome surprise; I'm still waiting for my first £100 prize. The number of bonds is more significant than the timescale, someone with the single bond they got for their christening can't plan around an income from NS&I.

Nothing stopping you from thinking on an annual basis if you choose to measure returns in that way, but that will lead to you being pleased sometimes and disappointed at others, compared with taking the long term cumulative picture.

The number of bonds isn't necessarily more significant than the timescale, in that it's the total number of draw entries made that drives the outcome - in other words, the expected outcome from £10,000 worth for five years is identical to holding £50,000 for one year (assuming constant competition rules throughout).  However, it is true that those with small holdings will experience lumpier returns than those with larger holdings for longer periods, even though they'll ultimately average out the same, in that the vast majority of those with just £1 will win nothing, but a few will earn a return of 2500% or more!