Premium Bond Winner ?

eskbanker

metrobus said:

Anyway out of 19 max holdings reported here the return was £575 @ 1% that on average should have been £791.67 that includes nothing on 8 out of 19 max holdings so 42.1 % get nothing compared to the 23.5 % it should be,almost 100 % more.

So yes for some reason max holdings are massively under perfoming.....

I'm not planning to correct all of the flaws in the calculations contrived to fit your agenda but would just observe that the latest report takes the return to £725 from 20 maxes, versus an expected return of £750 (@ 0.9% median average) so not a significant variance at all.

metrobus said:

not when you consider how inflation is eating away massively on your PB holdings paying 1% and our vanguard funds are for 10/15 years.

That's obviously not a like for like comparison, but if you're looking for a long term investment (accepting capital risk) then nobody would advocate PBs for that requirement....

grumiofoundation

metrobus said:

grumiofoundation said:

metrobus said:

yes youve guessed it,

2 max holdings of £50,000 and nothing yet again.

nevermind its all cashed in now and its off to vanguard.

Moving 100k from safe cash holdings (presuming a reason why you didn't want to risk capital) to capital at risk investments because you believe the draw is rigged seems an overreaction to me...

But also what if the forces that control ERNIE control the stock market? 

not when you consider how inflation is eating away massively on your PB holdings paying 1% and our vanguard funds are for 10/15 years.

As was obvious from my first post (and as said above) the 2 aren't comparable in terms of risk and requirements.

I expect you will find that many posters have considered the impact of inflation, the risks of investing and weighed those risks up against their short and long term term goals. Therefore they invest/hold cash in the proportions they feel comfortable with rather than (as your initial posts implied) throwing their premium bonds out the pram because they haven't won any prizes for a few months and moving 100k from guaranteed capital preservation to investments where you could potentially see a 50% loss (depends what you invest in) in the event of a crash. 

ranciduk

Umiamz said:

£150 (2 x £25 + £100) on maximum holding. I've won something every month since I got them 8 months ago.

Doesn’t this one example show that this silly conspiracy theory ... is just silly?!

8 winning draws on the trot on max

i guess some people are just lucky- some ain’t 

ilselm

New to PBs. Had first ever draw this month on £20k and won 2 x £25. Beginners luck?

SandyN21

This month 2 x £25 on £19,500 holding.

Started off with £500 holding in November 2019 and winnings before this month have been:
£25 June 2020
£25 Nov 2020
£25 Jan 2021
2 x £25 March 2021

Nebulous2

I remember someone telling me. Chance has no memory. Or:-  there is 1 chance in 46656 of throwing 6 consecutive sixes, but having thrown 5 you have exactly the same chance of throwing a sixth one as you had of throwing the first; 1 in 6. 

Having won a £1000 prize in my second draw (and I'm not going to stop telling people!)  neither increases nor decreases my chance of winning in subsequent draws. 

I hope I've got all that right, I'm not a statistician, as you may have noticed,  but I've been drilling down into the numbers and I have had three prizes in the last three months from one block of 200 bonds. 

I won the £1000 in June. In July a bond 47 earlier in the sequence than the June winner won £25 and in August a bond 129 after the June winner won another £25.  

MysteryMe

£25 on the first month of full holding. I've won a prize 6 months in a row. I hope those who have had a barren spell have better news next month.

pbcpdeveloper

ranciduk said:

8 winning draws on the trot on max

i guess some people are just lucky- some ain’t 

Currently on an 11 Draw winning streak. Best is 27 draws though.

lr1277

£25 win on a £32k holding.

ashteadgirl

£100 on 2 X max holdings