Premium Bond Winner ?

eskbanker

At the time of posting, the returns from fifteen maximum holdings have been shared since this month's draw results were published last night, not necessarily a statistically significant sample but all we've got to go on at the moment.

According to the MSE calculator, the chances of winning something in any given month (from a max holding) are 76.5%, versus a 23.5% chance of a blank, so the expected outcome would be 11 winners and 4 disappointed punters.

Which is exactly what has been reported - nothing to see here, move along!

Swipe

zero on two lots of max holdings

Lornrussell

34k holding, the first time that I've won nothing since getting them in January.

It's also the first time I checked in the morning rather than midnight, which is clearly why I didn't win... Ahem... 

pip895

Over 50 years ago on my first birthday my parents bought me a single premium bond.  Just before my second birthday it won £10. My parents took me to the toy shop and I selected a large teddy.  That bond has never won again but I still have that teddy😀

On a perhaps more relevant note my 20k holding (proceeds reinvested) is running a a pretty boring 0.7% annual rate, OH has the same size holding but is up at a princely 1.2%!

metrobus

yes youve guessed it,

2 max holdings of £50,000 and nothing yet again.

nevermind its all cashed in now and its off to vanguard.

Anyway out of 19 max holdings reported here the return was £575 @ 1% that on average should have been £791.67 that includes nothing on 8 out of 19 max holdings so 42.1 % get nothing compared to the 23.5 % it should be,almost 100 % more.

So yes for some reason max holdings are massively under perfoming,ill leave the naive on here carry on.

grumiofoundation

metrobus said:

yes youve guessed it,

2 max holdings of £50,000 and nothing yet again.

nevermind its all cashed in now and its off to vanguard.

Moving 100k from safe cash holdings (presuming a reason why you didn't want to risk capital) to capital at risk investments because you believe the draw is rigged seems an overreaction to me...

But also what if the forces that control ERNIE control the stock market? 

Umiamz

£150 (2 x £25 + £100) on maximum holding. I've won something every month since I got them 8 months ago.

metrobus

grumiofoundation said:

metrobus said:

yes youve guessed it,

2 max holdings of £50,000 and nothing yet again.

nevermind its all cashed in now and its off to vanguard.

Moving 100k from safe cash holdings (presuming a reason why you didn't want to risk capital) to capital at risk investments because you believe the draw is rigged seems an overreaction to me...

But also what if the forces that control ERNIE control the stock market? 

not when you consider how inflation is eating away massively on your PB holdings paying 1% and our vanguard funds are for 10/15 years.

eskbanker

metrobus said:

Anyway out of 19 max holdings reported here the return was £575 @ 1% that on average should have been £791.67 that includes nothing on 8 out of 19 max holdings so 42.1 % get nothing compared to the 23.5 % it should be,almost 100 % more.

So yes for some reason max holdings are massively under perfoming.....

I'm not planning to correct all of the flaws in the calculations contrived to fit your agenda but would just observe that the latest report takes the return to £725 from 20 maxes, versus an expected return of £750 (@ 0.9% median average) so not a significant variance at all.

metrobus said:

not when you consider how inflation is eating away massively on your PB holdings paying 1% and our vanguard funds are for 10/15 years.

That's obviously not a like for like comparison, but if you're looking for a long term investment (accepting capital risk) then nobody would advocate PBs for that requirement....

grumiofoundation

metrobus said:

grumiofoundation said:

metrobus said:

yes youve guessed it,

2 max holdings of £50,000 and nothing yet again.

nevermind its all cashed in now and its off to vanguard.

Moving 100k from safe cash holdings (presuming a reason why you didn't want to risk capital) to capital at risk investments because you believe the draw is rigged seems an overreaction to me...

But also what if the forces that control ERNIE control the stock market? 

not when you consider how inflation is eating away massively on your PB holdings paying 1% and our vanguard funds are for 10/15 years.

As was obvious from my first post (and as said above) the 2 aren't comparable in terms of risk and requirements.

I expect you will find that many posters have considered the impact of inflation, the risks of investing and weighed those risks up against their short and long term term goals. Therefore they invest/hold cash in the proportions they feel comfortable with rather than (as your initial posts implied) throwing their premium bonds out the pram because they haven't won any prizes for a few months and moving 100k from guaranteed capital preservation to investments where you could potentially see a 50% loss (depends what you invest in) in the event of a crash.