Octopus Flux April 25 - Ouch

Mushypeas42

Had an 8.8Kwh system with 11.2 Net capacity battery installed last June, no EV and the batteries are not compatible with export via givenergy. That rules out Intelligent Octopus Flux

All was hunky dory via Octoplus Flux including using off peak to charge batteries, with a healthy standard export rate of 14.3 p/wh. Since then its been eroded twice including April with the Peak rate being increased but absolutely pointless in terms of Export values as the amount exported is minimal.

Only 9 months in and the whole calculation in terms of return on capital  I did in June is in the bin and i signed up to the 14 month Gas fix 2 weeks ago. 

As a newbie any advice on alternatives that offer a better return and still tick the above boxes?

Thanks 

Mushypeas42

Mushypeas42 said:

Had an 8.8Kwh system with 11.2 Net capacity battery installed last June, no EV and the batteries are not compatible with export via givenergy. That rules out Intelligent Octopus Flux

All was hunky dory via Octoplus Flux including using off peak to charge batteries, with a healthy standard export rate of 14.3 p/wh. Since then its been eroded twice including April with the Peak rate being increased but absolutely pointless in terms of Export values as the amount exported is minimal.

Only 9 months in and the whole calculation in terms of return on capital  I did in June is in the bin and i signed up to the 14 month Gas fix 2 weeks ago. 

As a newbie any advice on alternatives that offer a better return and still tick the above boxes?

Thanks 

[Quoted post removed by Forum Team]

Thanks.

Thats really useful. I'm not in a rush just yet as going  abroad for 6 weeks, so unlikely to get switch done in time & will let the system tick over until back home. Getting a feeling on home systems, but I was involved in major new build with Solar 2 decades ago on FITS, so know how it works, particularly on cost, and I bypassed the resellers but have a fully compliant larger PV array system, which is a must in Central West Yorkshire, for obvious reasons!,

My main gripe is the best rates are in effect loyalty bonuses for spending £ several thousand on their systems, so what happens if someone wants to move, within the possible 25 year life of the system with the odd change of Inverter/Batteries? 

 I forsee a possibility this being used as another business ploy by the providers, to the disadvantage of owners of existing Solar PV systems who are looking at long term returns and it becomes a lottery and not competitive at all .

Take this down the line, and it could easly kill the market put many off installing them in the future. 

QrizB

Mushypeas42 said:

Only 9 months in and the whole calculation in terms of return on capital  I did in June is in the bin and i signed up to the 14 month Gas fix 2 weeks ago.

I know it doesn't really help you, but whenever anyone posts about their proposed solar & battery installation we usually warn that decade-long ROI shouldn't be based on today's market conditions.

If I could forecast energy prices I'd be sitting on my yacht drinking cocktails & admiring the view of my private island.

Screwdriva

I'm predicting an end to the lucrative battery charging tariffs like IOG/ GO etc. I haven't seen nighttime tariffs drop below a sustained 9p for months , and if this continues for another quarter, there's only so much energy companies can absorb. 

debitcardmayhem

Screwdriva said:

I'm predicting an end to the lucrative battery charging tariffs like IOG/ GO etc. I haven't seen nighttime tariffs drop below a sustained 9p for months , and if this continues for another quarter, there's only so much energy companies can absorb. 

Plus the NESO is only accepting paltry bids for DFS lower than normal export rates the writing is on the wall.

mmmmikey

Screwdriva said:

I'm predicting an end to the lucrative battery charging tariffs like IOG/ GO etc. I haven't seen nighttime tariffs drop below a sustained 9p for months , and if this continues for another quarter, there's only so much energy companies can absorb. 

I certainly agree that the current night-time rates seem unsustainable, which for me is one of the big attractions of EOn Next Drive which is fixed for a year. 

I also think that current export rates are unsustainable at their current levels and the economics of solar panel ownership will change dramatically over the next few years, to the point where they'll only be a viable option for those with large batteries and on TOU tariffs. I'm predicting tears and tantrums from people who have invested too much in solar panels and/or too late as the return on their investment plummets, with those people have set their expectations based on current rates rather than what might happen in the near future.

I live in Lincolnshire which is currently being turned into a giant solar farm, with just the occasional gap for growing small patches of cabbages. Well, that's what the local NIMBYs tell me. Although I suspect they're exaggerating a bit, the underlying point is that we are seing a massive expansion in solar investments with planning applications approved for many multiple thousand acre solar farms and applications in (and many at an advanced stage) for others. As those farms come online over the next few years, supply on sunny days will increase, driving down prices. So I'd expect to see more and more days when customers on Agile get paid for using electricity. This is going to change the economics of solar panel ownership - why pay for panels to generate energy on the days and times of day when you can buy it for low prices on a TOU tariff? And it seems likely that export rates will go down drammatically for the same reason. I think I have read that in parts of Australia and the US you actually have to pay to export your spare solar energy - I expect we're a long way from that here but the principle is clear enough.

My own view is that the best thing to do at the moment is to focus on battery storage rather than solar generation. That way, whatever happens in the unpredictable world of energy prices you'll be able to buy any electricity you need at whatever time of day happens to be cheapest. And if you do have solar panels you'll be able to export it at a time of day which gets you a much better rate.

Or to put it another way, if you invest in battery storage you are protecting yourself against future uncertainty and if you get your predictions wrong you can just re-program your battery accordingly. But if you invest in solar panels and the value of the generated electricity plummets due to mass availability of solar energy through the grid you stand to get burnt. (Sun burnt perhaps? )

Qyburn

I wonder why the post describing savings from EON was deleted. I might switch if IOF doesn't work out, although I estimate around £80/year benefit rather than £500.

Mushypeas42

QrizB said:

Mushypeas42 said:

Only 9 months in and the whole calculation in terms of return on capital  I did in June is in the bin and i signed up to the 14 month Gas fix 2 weeks ago.

I know it doesn't really help you, but whenever anyone posts about their proposed solar & battery installation we usually warn that decade-long ROI shouldn't be based on today's market conditions.

If I could forecast energy prices I'd be sitting on my yacht drinking cocktails & admiring the view of my private island.

QrizB said:

Mushypeas42 said:

Only 9 months in and the whole calculation in terms of return on capital  I did in June is in the bin and i signed up to the 14 month Gas fix 2 weeks ago.

I know it doesn't really help you, but whenever anyone posts about their proposed solar & battery installation we usually warn that decade-long ROI shouldn't be based on today's market conditions.

If I could forecast energy prices I'd be sitting on my yacht drinking cocktails & admiring the view of my private island.

 Totally agree its a risk but it was a pretty heavy hammering after just 9 months. Frankly, Ok with it as can move on with a system tweak and a change of provider if necessary .It still works financially, but slightly longer return period.

It still cost 0.85 x Range Rover Sport annual depreciation, as I reminded my nosy 3 doors down neighbour who thought my panels would reduce his house value while washing said car.  I'd also love to think that a crystal ball with my Solar PV could result in me sitting on a yacht, but I would need a much larger roof. 

QrizB

mmmmikey said:

Screwdriva said:

I'm predicting an end to the lucrative battery charging tariffs like IOG/ GO etc. I haven't seen nighttime tariffs drop below a sustained 9p for months , and if this continues for another quarter, there's only so much energy companies can absorb.

I certainly agree that the current night-time rates seem unsustainable, which for me is one of the big attractions of EOn Next Drive which is fixed for a year.

Octopus are talking of a fixed-rate version of both Go tariffs. It'll be interesting to see what they offer.

mmmmikey

QrizB said:

mmmmikey said:

Screwdriva said:

I'm predicting an end to the lucrative battery charging tariffs like IOG/ GO etc. I haven't seen nighttime tariffs drop below a sustained 9p for months , and if this continues for another quarter, there's only so much energy companies can absorb.

I certainly agree that the current night-time rates seem unsustainable, which for me is one of the big attractions of EOn Next Drive which is fixed for a year.

Octopus are talking of a fixed-rate version of both Go tariffs. It'll be interesting to see what they offer.

Yes, the market has certainly changed over the last year or so and it will be interesting to see how Octopus respond to competition in the market for smart tariffs which they dominated for a number of years.