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Timing the market?
Comments
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GenX0212 said:Amazing how the words of a single 'some say Genius' 'some say Idiot' can result in trillions of dollars being wiped from US stocks at a stroke.
Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?
My simplistic view in my head is that if stock values go down somewhere then they should go up by the same amount somewhere else, because there can only ever be a set amount of money in the world at any given point right?( I know I am being simplistic and naive ).And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.0 -
kinger101 said:IamWood said:My pension is down about 8%.
Is it the time to purchase more?1 -
Hoenir said:GenX0212 said:
Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?
When supply exceeds demand. Price falls. Takes two parties to trade.
Stock prices are in effect a reflection of investors expectations of future as yet unearnt profits.
The reward comes from taking risk. There's no such thing as a free lunch.And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.1 -
Cobbler_tone said:kinger101 said:IamWood said:My pension is down about 8%.
Is it the time to purchase more?3 -
Bostonerimus1 said:GenX0212 said:Amazing how the words of a single 'some say Genius' 'some say Idiot' can result in trillions of dollars being wiped from US stocks at a stroke.
Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?
My simplistic view in my head is that if stock values go down somewhere then they should go up by the same amount somewhere else, because there can only ever be a set amount of money in the world at any given point right?( I know I am being simplistic and naive ).0 -
Bostonerimus1 said:Hoenir said:GenX0212 said:
Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?
When supply exceeds demand. Price falls. Takes two parties to trade.
Stock prices are in effect a reflection of investors expectations of future as yet unearnt profits.
The reward comes from taking risk. There's no such thing as a free lunch.2 -
Hoenir said:Bostonerimus1 said:Hoenir said:GenX0212 said:
Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?
When supply exceeds demand. Price falls. Takes two parties to trade.
Stock prices are in effect a reflection of investors expectations of future as yet unearnt profits.
The reward comes from taking risk. There's no such thing as a free lunch.And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.1 -
Cus said:Cobbler_tone said:kinger101 said:IamWood said:My pension is down about 8%.
Is it the time to purchase more?
My share holding has picked up nicely today. Proper rollercoaster.1 -
I think many people have been aware the stockmarkets got a bit too heated the last two years and many fundamentals just didn't look sensible.
But AI was, is & will keep pushing and there's lots and lots of cash that was printed the last 14odd years that was injected in to markets and FOMO helping that along.
The last year or so we just needed an event or sequence of events to start the snowballing on the down ramp for emotions and fear to get ahold, these sequence of events happened end of January and continue today.
These events and headlines will blend away just like they always do and markets will start re-achieiving all time highs inside the next few years and I won't be surprised if we will see new market highs in 2025, just like we did in 2020 covid IIRC when the world stopped spinning I think the press told us.
I see the last 2 or 3 years and these last few months a good example of recency bias and we just need to chill out and enjoy the longer game.
Apart from recency bias, I think a good understanding of sequencing risk is another good book for the brain shelf.
I will endeavour to stay calm and carry on investing like I've done for many years.
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias
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https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/11/business/sequence-risk-nest-egg-early-in-retirement/index.html
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I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned.
However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).
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