Timing the market?

Bostonerimus1

GenX0212 said:

Amazing how the words of a single 'some say Genius' 'some say Idiot' can result in trillions of dollars being wiped from US stocks at a stroke.
Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?

My simplistic view in my head is that if stock values go down somewhere then they should go up by the same amount somewhere else, because there can only ever be a set amount of money in the world at any given point right?  

( I know I am being simplistic and naive ).

There's no law of "Conservation of Money" or assets.

Cobbler_tone

kinger101 said:

IamWood said:

My pension is down about 8%.

Is it the time to purchase more? 

I've got my bonus sacrifice going in at the end of the month, so hope Grandmaster Crash hasn't finished yet.  Doesn't seem so with today's hikes import tariffs for Canada.

Ditto, hence why I switched to a cash plan for ongoing contributions…for now.

Bostonerimus1

Hoenir said:

GenX0212 said:

Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?

Something is only ever worth, what somebody will pay you for it, when you come to sell it. 

When supply exceeds demand. Price falls. Takes two parties to trade. 

Stock prices are in effect a reflection of investors expectations of future as yet unearnt profits. 

The reward comes from taking risk. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

I've mostly tuned out all the financial talking heads on the cable channels, but yesterday I did see what they were saying. The best were the Tesla analysts, some saying the fundamentals looked bad and the P/E was way too big, and others saying Tesla is in a great situation for AI roll out and this is a buying opportunity. Who knows? But people have an amazing capacity to consume BS in many forms. This type of event is exactly why I stopped thinking about stock prices after 2000 and became a passive index investor. 

Cus

Cobbler_tone said:

kinger101 said:

IamWood said:

My pension is down about 8%.

Is it the time to purchase more? 

I've got my bonus sacrifice going in at the end of the month, so hope Grandmaster Crash hasn't finished yet.  Doesn't seem so with today's hikes import tariffs for Canada.

Ditto, hence why I switched to a cash plan for ongoing contributions…for now.

Let us know when the bottom is about to happen so we can pile in 😉. That whole 'time in the market, not time the market' is a great quote until it all seems to be crashing down

Cus

Bostonerimus1 said:

GenX0212 said:

Amazing how the words of a single 'some say Genius' 'some say Idiot' can result in trillions of dollars being wiped from US stocks at a stroke.
Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?

My simplistic view in my head is that if stock values go down somewhere then they should go up by the same amount somewhere else, because there can only ever be a set amount of money in the world at any given point right?  

( I know I am being simplistic and naive ).

There's no law of "Conservation of Money" or assets.

Only bitcoin I think 😁

Hoenir

Bostonerimus1 said:

Hoenir said:

GenX0212 said:

Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?

Something is only ever worth, what somebody will pay you for it, when you come to sell it. 

When supply exceeds demand. Price falls. Takes two parties to trade. 

Stock prices are in effect a reflection of investors expectations of future as yet unearnt profits. 

The reward comes from taking risk. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

I've mostly tuned out all the financial talking heads on the cable channels, but yesterday I did see what they were saying. The best were the Tesla analysts, some saying the fundamentals looked bad and the P/E was way too big, and others saying Tesla is in a great situation for AI roll out and this is a buying opportunity. Who knows? But people have an amazing capacity to consume BS in many forms. This type of event is exactly why I stopped thinking about stock prices after 2000 and became a passive index investor. 

You never know who has a vested interest in the stock price. Someone has to be a loser for somebody else to be a winner. Many years in the Corporate world led me to understand that many do indeed speak with a forked tongue. 

Bostonerimus1

Hoenir said:

Bostonerimus1 said:

Hoenir said:

GenX0212 said:

Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?

Something is only ever worth, what somebody will pay you for it, when you come to sell it. 

When supply exceeds demand. Price falls. Takes two parties to trade. 

Stock prices are in effect a reflection of investors expectations of future as yet unearnt profits. 

The reward comes from taking risk. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

I've mostly tuned out all the financial talking heads on the cable channels, but yesterday I did see what they were saying. The best were the Tesla analysts, some saying the fundamentals looked bad and the P/E was way too big, and others saying Tesla is in a great situation for AI roll out and this is a buying opportunity. Who knows? But people have an amazing capacity to consume BS in many forms. This type of event is exactly why I stopped thinking about stock prices after 2000 and became a passive index investor. 

You never know who has a vested interest in the stock price. Someone has to be a loser for somebody else to be a winner. Many years in the Corporate world led me to understand that many do indeed speak with a forked tongue. 

Everyone in the financial industry has a vested interest. There might be some who are more honest than others, but nobody is being altruistic.

Cobbler_tone

Cus said:

Cobbler_tone said:

kinger101 said:

IamWood said:

My pension is down about 8%.

Is it the time to purchase more? 

I've got my bonus sacrifice going in at the end of the month, so hope Grandmaster Crash hasn't finished yet.  Doesn't seem so with today's hikes import tariffs for Canada.

Ditto, hence why I switched to a cash plan for ongoing contributions…for now.

Let us know when the bottom is about to happen so we can pile in 😉. That whole 'time in the market, not time the market' is a great quote until it all seems to be crashing down

It’s not about being at the bottom, it’s about protecting my last remaining contributions. All of my other contributions remain in the plan that is currently dropping, which will hopefully pick up and continue to grow.
My share holding has picked up nicely today. Proper rollercoaster.

RogerPensionGuy

I think many people have been aware the stockmarkets got a bit too heated the last two years and many fundamentals just didn't look sensible.

But AI was, is & will keep pushing and there's lots and lots of cash that was printed the last 14odd years that was injected in to markets and FOMO helping that along.

The last year or so we just needed an event or sequence of events to start the snowballing on the down ramp for emotions and fear to get ahold, these sequence of events happened end of January and continue today.

These events and headlines will blend away just like they always do and markets will start re-achieiving  all time highs inside the next few years and I won't be surprised if we will see new market highs in 2025, just like we did in 2020 covid IIRC when the world stopped spinning I think the press told us.

I see the last 2 or 3 years and these last few months a good example of recency bias and we just need to chill out and enjoy the longer game. 

Apart from recency bias, I think a good understanding of sequencing risk is another good book for the brain shelf.

I will endeavour to stay calm and carry on investing like I've done for many years. 

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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recency_bias

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https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/11/business/sequence-risk-nest-egg-early-in-retirement/index.html

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TheBanker

I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned. 

However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).