Timing the market?

Sarahspangles

Roger175 said:

Comments such as 'I'm down 8%', are pretty meaningless. At the point of writing this, the S&P500 is still up 9.7% on a year, the FTSE all-world index up 8.3% on year and the FTSE100 up 11.38% on year.

The way I tend to look at this, is to say to myself, "Oh well!, I'm back to where I was last December" (or whatever).

That having been said, having recently retired and happy with my total, I de-risked my exposure to the US markets in recent months and put about £150k into STMM funds just for this very reason. Overall, long term, I'll probably not be any better off, but I like to sleep easy. I will almost certainly take a punt and start buying back in at some point, but we've only seen a very modest drop so far, I'm thinking more like 25%, but we'll see. 

I have my 2025/26 pension in a STMM fund and will leave it as late as possible before I draw it, as it’s currently beating savings interest. The following year’s tranche can roll back a long way before I make a loss - I received 40% relief on some of it and have my full personal allowance to use before I start paying tax on it ‘on the way out’.

As we would like to move house and will need to replace a car within 18 months I need to keep an eye on implications for those decisions. I’ve historically been unlucky with my timings on house sales and purchases.

Hoenir

Moonwolf said:

Juno_Moneta said:

pterri said:

The guy whose entire pension is in ITV shares will be along in a minute to say he’s cashed out and bought Tesla 

No chance - the Tesla PE Ratio is ridiculous. Not an investment. 

I think the Tesla shares were so high because investors anticiapted growth as the world moves to EV. It was becoming fairly dominant.

Entry into the SP500 forced every passive fund to buy a full weighting in the stock. Demand as a consequence exceeded supply.  

Bostonerimus1

Roger175 said:

Comments such as 'I'm down 8%', are pretty meaningless. At the point of writing this, the S&P500 is still up 9.7% on a year, the FTSE all-world index up 8.3% on year and the FTSE100 up 11.38% on year.

The way I tend to look at this, is to say to myself, "Oh well!, I'm back to where I was last December" (or whatever).

That having been said, having recently retired and happy with my total, I de-risked my exposure to the US markets in recent months and put about £150k into STMM funds just for this very reason. Overall, long term, I'll probably not be any better off, but I like to sleep easy. I will almost certainly take a punt and start buying back in at some point, but we've only seen a very modest drop so far, I'm thinking more like 25%, but we'll see. 

A long time ago I decided not to rely on my DC pension funds for retirement income and so now I can be pretty sanguine about market turmoil. I haven't done anything to my portfolio for the last 10 years and I don't expect to do anything for the next 10 years either. I will ride this market down and probably see it recover.

Roger175

Bostonerimus1 said:

Roger175 said:

Comments such as 'I'm down 8%', are pretty meaningless. At the point of writing this, the S&P500 is still up 9.7% on a year, the FTSE all-world index up 8.3% on year and the FTSE100 up 11.38% on year.

The way I tend to look at this, is to say to myself, "Oh well!, I'm back to where I was last December" (or whatever).

That having been said, having recently retired and happy with my total, I de-risked my exposure to the US markets in recent months and put about £150k into STMM funds just for this very reason. Overall, long term, I'll probably not be any better off, but I like to sleep easy. I will almost certainly take a punt and start buying back in at some point, but we've only seen a very modest drop so far, I'm thinking more like 25%, but we'll see. 

A long time ago I decided not to rely on my DC pension funds for retirement income and so now I can be pretty sanguine about market turmoil. I haven't done anything to my portfolio for the last 10 years and I don't expect to do anything for the next 10 years either. I will ride this market down and probably see it recover.

Bostonerimus1, yes, that's the perfect way to deal with it.

In my case I don't have any DB pension to fall back on, but in truth, my wife has a small DB, we will both get full SPs in 6/7 yrs and we have enough assets sitting outside of pensions that we don't really need to touch my DC pension for a very long time. I have just started to draw a little using UFPLS, but that's only to draw down the remaining tax-free band.

The reason I de-risked (and trust me this was only with regards to US based equities which I see as being over priced, I am still heavily invested elsewhere and also have a high-yield portfolio of individual shares, mainly FTSE100, which I like for the dividends), was that quite simply, I have enough, probably more than enough money to live well and I simply don't need to risk everything in equities at my stage of the journey. Accumulation stage complete, now just got to ensure it doesn't all disappear again!

Bostonerimus1

Roger175 said:

Bostonerimus1 said:

Roger175 said:

Comments such as 'I'm down 8%', are pretty meaningless. At the point of writing this, the S&P500 is still up 9.7% on a year, the FTSE all-world index up 8.3% on year and the FTSE100 up 11.38% on year.

The way I tend to look at this, is to say to myself, "Oh well!, I'm back to where I was last December" (or whatever).

That having been said, having recently retired and happy with my total, I de-risked my exposure to the US markets in recent months and put about £150k into STMM funds just for this very reason. Overall, long term, I'll probably not be any better off, but I like to sleep easy. I will almost certainly take a punt and start buying back in at some point, but we've only seen a very modest drop so far, I'm thinking more like 25%, but we'll see. 

A long time ago I decided not to rely on my DC pension funds for retirement income and so now I can be pretty sanguine about market turmoil. I haven't done anything to my portfolio for the last 10 years and I don't expect to do anything for the next 10 years either. I will ride this market down and probably see it recover.

Bostonerimus1, yes, that's the perfect way to deal with it.

In my case I don't have any DB pension to fall back on, but in truth, my wife has a small DB, we will both get full SPs in 6/7 yrs and we have enough assets sitting outside of pensions that we don't really need to touch my DC pension for a very long time. I have just started to draw a little using UFPLS, but that's only to draw down the remaining tax-free band.

The reason I de-risked (and trust me this was only with regards to US based equities which I see as being over priced, I am still heavily invested elsewhere and also have a high-yield portfolio of individual shares, mainly FTSE100, which I like for the dividends), was that quite simply, I have enough, probably more than enough money to live well and I simply don't need to risk everything in equities at my stage of the journey. Accumulation stage complete, now just got to ensure it doesn't all disappear again!

IMO de-risking is a long term strategic activity with income generation in mind. There might be a component of growth and dividends baked into the income, but it needs to be backed up with things that are not closely coupled to the stock market...so cash, short term bonds, part time work, annuities, SP, DB pensions, rental income etc. Also it's vital to have thought just how you will react to large drops in the stock market. You might draw on a cash buffer, stay strong with a SWR strategy, or use one of the variable income strategies. Of course that latter strategy needs you to know where you can cut spending. Panic selling and attempts to time the market are even more dangerous in retirement than when you are in the accumulation phase.

GenX0212

Amazing how the words of a single 'some say Genius' 'some say Idiot' can result in trillions of dollars being wiped from US stocks at a stroke.
Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?

My simplistic view in my head is that if stock values go down somewhere then they should go up by the same amount somewhere else, because there can only ever be a set amount of money in the world at any given point right?  

( I know I am being simplistic and naive ).

kinger101

IamWood said:

My pension is down about 8%.

Is it the time to purchase more? 

I've got my bonus sacrifice going in at the end of the month, so hope Grandmaster Crash hasn't finished yet.  Doesn't seem so with today's hikes import tariffs for Canada.

Hoenir

GenX0212 said:

Where does the money go though and did it ever really exist in the 1st place?

Something is only ever worth, what somebody will pay you for it, when you come to sell it. 

When supply exceeds demand. Price falls. Takes two parties to trade. 

Stock prices are in effect a reflection of investors expectations of future as yet unearnt profits. 

The reward comes from taking risk. There's no such thing as a free lunch.

Martico

kinger101 said:

IamWood said:

My pension is down about 8%.

Is it the time to purchase more? 

 Grandmaster Crash 

Bravo   

IamWood

kinger101 said:

IamWood said:

My pension is down about 8%.

Is it the time to purchase more? 

I've got my bonus sacrifice going in at the end of the month, so hope Grandmaster Crash hasn't finished yet.  Doesn't seem so with today's hikes import tariffs for Canada.

Unfortunately, the timing isn’t ideal for me. My bonus was transferred to shares last Friday (03/07/2025).

My pensions are 100% in shares. I may consider putting some of my savings into my wife’s SIPP. Let’s carry on and see where it takes us. I plan to retire in 4 years, once my sons graduate. I don't think I'll touch my pension for a long while.