Timing the market?

pterri

Moonwolf said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

I don't really understand the concern about the current market volatility, it is to be expected, there are always bumps in the road. If your portfolio can't withstand a 30% drop and not recover for at least 10 years I would argue you don't have the financial resilience to retire just yet.

Personally I am more impacted as I am retiring two weeks tomorrow.

I have run multiple scenarios and I should be better off than many, even on a 1929 scale crash, although I would have to make adjustments. 

It is just that starting drawdown, particularly at a temporarily unsustainable rate, as I am bridging to my DB and state pensions, is more uncomfortable after a fall in the market.

Im exactly in this place. May 27th and three years to bridge to DB. I’ve plenty of headroom but very annoying! 

Bianchiintenso

TheBanker said:

I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned. 

However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).

Personally I think the protests will get louder and louder from both the voters and business leaders in the US and there will be a lot of back tracking on Trumpenomics, one of the major factors in people who don't identify as MAGAS's voting for the present administration was that Trump 'praised himself highly' (and incorrectly)  as the reason peoples 401k's were at record highs, that's all they care about. If he doesn't act within a year the mid terms will go heavily Democrat.

Qyburn

kempiejon said:

I've picked some numbers worked on the idea that my income could halve and take 5 years to recover. 

I'm working on similar with respect to income from DC pensions. As a cash buffer it equates to 1.5 years DC drawdown, which in our case isn't a huge sum of money as a lot is covered by DB and SP income. 

My reference point is starting portfolio value plus RPI, on that basis I might still be ahead even with further drops.

Bostonerimus1

Bianchiintenso said:

TheBanker said:

I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned. 

However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).

Personally I think the protests will get louder and louder from both the voters and business leaders in the US and there will be a lot of back tracking on Trumpenomics, one of the major factors in people who don't identify as MAGAS's voting for the present administration was that Trump 'praised himself highly' (and incorrectly)  as the reason peoples 401k's were at record highs, that's all they care about. If he doesn't act within a year the mid terms will go heavily Democrat.

They also care about Social Security and Medicare and Musk is making noises about messing with those now. The mid-terms will decide whether or not I stay in the US. Right now I'm decluttering my house and have mostly arranged my finances to be easily accessible from the UK and tested that out on a recent visit. If the US continues to support MAGA I won't stay here and will move a lot of money to the UK, but that's a difficult taxation problem and also who knows what will happen to cross border finances.

Bianchiintenso

Bostonerimus1 said:

Bianchiintenso said:

TheBanker said:

I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned. 

However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).

Personally I think the protests will get louder and louder from both the voters and business leaders in the US and there will be a lot of back tracking on Trumpenomics, one of the major factors in people who don't identify as MAGAS's voting for the present administration was that Trump 'praised himself highly' (and incorrectly)  as the reason peoples 401k's were at record highs, that's all they care about. If he doesn't act within a year the mid terms will go heavily Democrat.

They also care about Social Security and Medicare and Musk is making noises about messing with those now. The mid-terms will decide whether or not I stay in the US. Right now I'm decluttering my house and have mostly arranged my finances to be easily accessible from the UK and tested that out on a recent visit. If the US continues to support MAGA I won't stay here and will move a lot of money to the UK, but that's a difficult taxation problem and also who knows what will happen to cross border finances.

I feel for you! If Trump continues on the (alleged) Project 2025 path and the mid terms don't swing there's going to be long term pain for all of us whether US or EU

Bostonerimus1

Bianchiintenso said:

Bostonerimus1 said:

Bianchiintenso said:

TheBanker said:

I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned. 

However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).

Personally I think the protests will get louder and louder from both the voters and business leaders in the US and there will be a lot of back tracking on Trumpenomics, one of the major factors in people who don't identify as MAGAS's voting for the present administration was that Trump 'praised himself highly' (and incorrectly)  as the reason peoples 401k's were at record highs, that's all they care about. If he doesn't act within a year the mid terms will go heavily Democrat.

They also care about Social Security and Medicare and Musk is making noises about messing with those now. The mid-terms will decide whether or not I stay in the US. Right now I'm decluttering my house and have mostly arranged my finances to be easily accessible from the UK and tested that out on a recent visit. If the US continues to support MAGA I won't stay here and will move a lot of money to the UK, but that's a difficult taxation problem and also who knows what will happen to cross border finances.

I feel for you! If Trump continues on the (alleged) Project 2025 path and the mid terms don't swing there's going to be long term pain for all of us whether US or EU

I'm relatively lucky. People who are retiring now and depending on DC drawdown, the poor who rely on Government services and Federal workers who have been fired are far worse off and everyone has to deal with today's uncertainty. I'm sure there will be a peak in deaths from plain anxiety and worry.

Hoenir

Bianchiintenso said:

TheBanker said:

I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned. 

However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).

Personally I think the protests will get louder and louder from both the voters and business leaders in the US and there will be a lot of back tracking on Trumpenomics, 

Trumpenomics ultimately will be beneficial to the US domestic economy. Unfortunately the messaging hasn't been particularly good conveying why the necccesity nor Trump's personal style of management or actions in achieving the longer term goals. 

Storcko14

Bianchiintenso said:

TheBanker said:

I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned. 

However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).

Personally I think the protests will get louder and louder from both the voters and business leaders in the US and there will be a lot of back tracking on Trumpenomics, one of the major factors in people who don't identify as MAGAS's voting for the present administration was that Trump 'praised himself highly' (and incorrectly)  as the reason peoples 401k's were at record highs, that's all they care about. If he doesn't act within a year the mid terms will go heavily Democrat.

What's interesting but less widely reported, is what's happening in the background to the systems of democracy.  For example, in the US there's no Electoral Commission so elections are open to gerrymandering which, even in its less partisan days, the Supreme Court found difficult to deal with.  Much as I hope that the checks and balances are strong enough and 'normal' service will be resumed in 4 years, I fear it might not be the case.  What might that, an emboldened Putin and minimally controlled AI mean over the next few years?

Bostonerimus1

Storcko14 said:

Bianchiintenso said:

TheBanker said:

I am about 15 years away from retirement so not hugely concerned. 

However I am about to make a relatively large contribution through Bonus Sacrifice. By default it will be invested in a global equity tracker. Part of me says it's a good time to buy, at a discount. By the time I come to draw my pension Trump will be long gone and, hopefully, normallity will have returned. Is this a rational view (or as rational as a view can be in these crazy times?).

Personally I think the protests will get louder and louder from both the voters and business leaders in the US and there will be a lot of back tracking on Trumpenomics, one of the major factors in people who don't identify as MAGAS's voting for the present administration was that Trump 'praised himself highly' (and incorrectly)  as the reason peoples 401k's were at record highs, that's all they care about. If he doesn't act within a year the mid terms will go heavily Democrat.

What's interesting but less widely reported, is what's happening in the background to the systems of democracy.  For example, in the US there's no Electoral Commission so elections are open to gerrymandering which, even in its less partisan days, the Supreme Court found difficult to deal with.  Much as I hope that the checks and balances are strong enough and 'normal' service will be resumed in 4 years, I fear it might not be the case.  What might that, an emboldened Putin and minimally controlled AI mean over the next few years?

If the Dems don't win back Congress in the mid-terms then MAGA will completely gut US democracy. Trump will do everything to stay in power for a third term even if the means breaking the Constitution, if he can't be President he'll install a crony or one of his kids.

Sunnylifeover50plan

Politics should be kept out of these posts, unless I am reading the rules incorrectly?