Timing the market?

Storcko14

Sunnylifeover50plan said:

Politics should be kept out of these posts, unless I am reading the rules incorrectly?

You're correct - I just checked.  Mea culpa!  As a relative newbie I'll shut up now lest I get booted off although for once, on this at least, views seemed to be aligned.

tigerspill

michaels said:

Yes, I can confidently advise you to have sold to cash 4 weeks ago.  When to buy back in?  I will tell you in 5 years time.....

Exactly what I did.  Cashed in enough to bring me back up to 5 years cash.

jobbywobbler

Some really good stuff on this thread, worrying times indeed, I am maybe a decade off retirement but certainly watching my DC pension, adding to it to get tax benefit - US Equity has a lot in it, certain it will come back via the Magnif 7.    Some say buy more units in the dip.   

I kept my DB pension as get good benefits and protection from it, safe I suppose as well 

Other part of says balance out in cash, so do a split on new monies coming in.

Agree - keep politics out of this, world id mad enough as it is.

Hoenir

jobbywobbler said:

 Some say buy more units in the dip.   

Those units are living breathing companies that need to excel. In order to meet the expectatations of investors, companies need to turn concepts into commercial revenue streams and ultimately cash profits. No shortage of people in the business world capable of selling sand to Arabs.  Promises cost nothing. 

GenX0212

jobbywobbler said:

Some really good stuff on this thread, worrying times indeed, I am maybe a decade off retirement but certainly watching my DC .
.....
Agree - keep politics out of this, world id mad enough as it is.

There's surely a huge difference between talking about the effects of political actions and the impact that it is having on your pension savings, and offering your own political comment? No way should the former be a taboo subject as it has direct impact on people's plans and discussion can help people navigate and potentially identify ways to mitigate their concerns.

Julezy101

SouthCoastBoy said:

kempiejon said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Moonwolf said:

Personally I am more impacted as I am retiring two weeks tomorrow.

I have run multiple scenarios and I should be better off than many, even on a 1929 scale crash, although I would have to make adjustments. 

It is just that starting drawdown, particularly at a temporarily unsustainable rate, as I am bridging to my DB and state pensions, is more uncomfortable after a fall in the market.

The point I tried to make was, imo, you are only ready to retire tmrw, if a 30% reduction in your portfolio today will not impact your retirement plans. 

I've picked some numbers worked on the idea that my income could halve and take 5 years to recover. The financial to-do in 2007/8/9 was of that order I think, 2020 lockdown my income fell by 50% but recovered in 3 years. With belt tightening and spending cash and maturing fixed interest I can survived. If you're worried about those first years a bond/gilt/cash equivalent to a year or two prevents being a forced seller in a downturn. This sequence of returns risk mitigation was a redirection to my planning, assets and portfolio construction once my employment started to annoy me.

Yes,I have modelled something similar, and used scenarios of 30 to 80% reduction with no recovery other than annual growth of 3.5% per annum. As I am close to retirement (maybe) I also hold substantial cash so can live off that for a number of years, actually I'm not planning to use my company pension until I reach 80. Inflation is the key for me, see how that goes when compared to interest rates over the net few years

Hi,
I'm surprised to see that you are not taking your company pension until aged 80, can I ask what your reasoning is behind this?

jobbywobbler

GenX0212 said:

jobbywobbler said:

Some really good stuff on this thread, worrying times indeed, I am maybe a decade off retirement but certainly watching my DC .
.....
Agree - keep politics out of this, world id mad enough as it is.

There's surely a huge difference between talking about the effects of political actions and the impact that it is having on your pension savings, and offering your own political comment? No way should the former be a taboo subject as it has direct impact on people's plans and discussion can help people navigate and potentially identify ways to mitigate their concerns.

Yeah, totally - but thats democracy for ya.   Taboo or not still can be iffy topic and cause conflict, look at the twitter cesspool.

Hopeful market will turn, there will be a bounce - just how long? green shoots on todays numbers perhaps?

Hoenir

jobbywobbler said:

GenX0212 said:

jobbywobbler said:

Some really good stuff on this thread, worrying times indeed, I am maybe a decade off retirement but certainly watching my DC .
.....
Agree - keep politics out of this, world id mad enough as it is.

There's surely a huge difference between talking about the effects of political actions and the impact that it is having on your pension savings, and offering your own political comment? No way should the former be a taboo subject as it has direct impact on people's plans and discussion can help people navigate and potentially identify ways to mitigate their concerns.

Yeah, totally - but thats democracy for ya.   Taboo or not still can be iffy topic and cause conflict, look at the twitter cesspool.

Love him or hate him. Trump has identified issues and gone straight for the jugular. Eire has side stepped imposing higher rates of Corporate Taxation for many years. Making it a tax haven for US Corporations to base their worldwide operations. Today he said as much to the Irish Premier's face. There's going to be a resolution of the matter now. No more diplomatic staying stum and avoiding wishing to engage on the matter. Luxembourg is another EU country operating in such a manner. 

daz378

I've had a moneybox s&s  isa medium risk index for a few years...put around 40 pound a month in..bit more if I use round up feature...up to 2.6 k...but was up 480 pound now up around  300..due to volatility  in American market...represents about 15% of my savings...but that's the risk...am a little worried over next few years...but will have DB pension to fall back on...as well

SouthCoastBoy

Julezy101 said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

kempiejon said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Moonwolf said:

Personally I am more impacted as I am retiring two weeks tomorrow.

I have run multiple scenarios and I should be better off than many, even on a 1929 scale crash, although I would have to make adjustments. 

It is just that starting drawdown, particularly at a temporarily unsustainable rate, as I am bridging to my DB and state pensions, is more uncomfortable after a fall in the market.

The point I tried to make was, imo, you are only ready to retire tmrw, if a 30% reduction in your portfolio today will not impact your retirement plans. 

I've picked some numbers worked on the idea that my income could halve and take 5 years to recover. The financial to-do in 2007/8/9 was of that order I think, 2020 lockdown my income fell by 50% but recovered in 3 years. With belt tightening and spending cash and maturing fixed interest I can survived. If you're worried about those first years a bond/gilt/cash equivalent to a year or two prevents being a forced seller in a downturn. This sequence of returns risk mitigation was a redirection to my planning, assets and portfolio construction once my employment started to annoy me.

Yes,I have modelled something similar, and used scenarios of 30 to 80% reduction with no recovery other than annual growth of 3.5% per annum. As I am close to retirement (maybe) I also hold substantial cash so can live off that for a number of years, actually I'm not planning to use my company pension until I reach 80. Inflation is the key for me, see how that goes when compared to interest rates over the net few years

Hi,
I'm surprised to see that you are not taking your company pension until aged 80, can I ask what your reasoning is behind this?

Just because, based on my projections I won't need it until then. I have a sipp and investments outside my company pension that I will be using. Prior to the iht proposed changes this also worked quite well from a tax perspective, obviously it looks as if that will change.

As I have no db pension I feel I need a safety net so I am using the pension for that as well