Timing the market?

Bravepants

Unfortunately for me I moved my SIPP into HSBC Global Strategy Dynamic on 12th February, from a nice safe STMM! I've recently started DB pension draw so I'm only drawing 3.5% of my SIPP and I have two years of cash, but it still irks me for my BAD MARKET TIMING!

On the other hand I'm still drip feeding into my long-term growth fund in my ISA, so "Yay me! Bring on the recession!".

SVaz

Exactly,  turn off the daily red line of doom and look at the whole picture.  You aren’t down until you have less than you started with.  

Unless you put all your cash in the last 6 months, you are still well up .  

Cobbler_tone

Roger175 said:

Comments such as 'I'm down 8%', are pretty meaningless. At the point of writing this, the S&P500 is still up 9.7% on a year, the FTSE all-world index up 8.3% on year and the FTSE100 up 11.38% on year.

The way I tend to look at this, is to say to myself, "Oh well!, I'm back to where I was last December" (or whatever).

I guess depending where you are on the line to intended retirement has more of an emotional impact, as opposed to purely financial. Seeing you last £2k of contributions 'disappear' in two weeks was enough to move them to something where they can't 'disappear' going forward. I am sure the majority of people haven't even looked at their pension. If the current drops have made a tangible difference to someone's immediate plans then they probably haven't got their money invested very wisely!
Share wise, I don't have too many and the price has gone up and down. Even with a 10% drop they are 15% up on 12 months ago. I see my shares as 'free money' though and buy/sell each month regardless.

I don't see the market doing anything other than continuing to drop in the short/mid term, unless our oversees friend has an ace up his sleeve. 

vacheron

Bravepants said:

Unfortunately for me I moved my SIPP into HSBC Global Strategy Dynamic on 12th February, from a nice safe STMM! I've recently started DB pension draw so I'm only drawing 3.5% of my SIPP and I have two years of cash, but it still irks me for my BAD MARKET TIMING!

On the other hand I'm still drip feeding into my long-term growth fund in my ISA, so "Yay me! Bring on the recession!".

One of my SIPPs is 100% invested in HSBC Global Strategy Dynamic (Class C, Acc), over the last 2 years, but fortunately the Scottish widows fund I transferred from (and am still partially invested in) has suffered almost identically.

"Every cloud" and all that! 

Moonwolf

Juno_Moneta said:

pterri said:

The guy whose entire pension is in ITV shares will be along in a minute to say he’s cashed out and bought Tesla 

No chance - the Tesla PE Ratio is ridiculous. Not an investment. 

I think the Tesla shares were so high because investors anticiapted growth as the world moves to EV. It was becoming fairly dominant.

Recent problems, Musk's politics, and I don't understand the Cybertruck, to me it looks ugly and it won't be allowed on European roads have made it a lot less attractive.

However people like the cars, I think a good CEO could bring it back, but will it get one?  Might be worth a punt?

Although I sold all my individual equities earlier in the month and am moving the uninvested cash from an S&S ISA to a cash ISA in anticipation of my retirement at the end of the month so I'm not going to gamble on anything. 

I also switched what I expect to crystallise and drawdown next year to a money market fund, just last week, for the same reason, kind of wishing I'd done two years now.

Bravepants

vacheron said:

Bravepants said:

Unfortunately for me I moved my SIPP into HSBC Global Strategy Dynamic on 12th February, from a nice safe STMM! I've recently started DB pension draw so I'm only drawing 3.5% of my SIPP and I have two years of cash, but it still irks me for my BAD MARKET TIMING!

On the other hand I'm still drip feeding into my long-term growth fund in my ISA, so "Yay me! Bring on the recession!".

One of my SIPPs is 100% invested in HSBC Global Strategy Dynamic (Class C, Acc), over the last 2 years, but fortunately the Scottish widows fund I transferred from (and am still partially invested in) has suffered almost identically.

"Every cloud" and all that! 

Indeed! I have the Guyten-Klinger algorithm implemented in one of my spreadsheets, I reckon that's going to get some exercise next April!

LHW99

Markets go up and down. I have some cash in an STMMF, and have set up to bring in ~£15k pa in dividends on top of any growth, which is all that's vital over and above SP and small DB's.

Hopefully that won't have to change any time soon.

MetaPhysical

Cobbler_tone said:

I’ve left my DC investment in the default target date plan and switched all future contributions to a cash plan. I’ve got 18 months to ride out and the perfect time to be thankful for a DB backbone! 

100%.  Me too, I contributed for many years into my DB scheme before switching employers and I am very grateful for my good fortune and know only too well that others may not be so lucky.

Out of my 600k DC pot I de-risked 100k into cash inside the pension last week before the market wobbles for my retirement next year.  Together with my DB schemes this 100k is enough for me to take 4 x £25k tax free sums to ride out the next three years, leaving the remaining 500k to do its growth in 50:50 split of bonds/equities (hopefully).

This forum and its experts and counsel has been an absolute godsend for me.

artyboy

I'd be looking for another 20% drop across the board before I switched out my CSH2 holding to something like HMWO. Mind you, I could see that happening before long...

FIREDreamer

Fully invested ISA and SIPP but both only down 3% from its peak of a couple of weeks ago, despite being invested differently - investment trust philately in the ISA and equity ETF in the drawdown SIPP.