Agile Pricing - strange things are afoot...

The_Green_Hornet

Gas prices fall as fears over Australian strike recede

Wholesale gas prices in Europe have fallen after a planned strike at Australia's largest liquefied natural gas plant looked to have been averted.

The walkout at Woodside Energy's North West Shelf plant had threatened to disrupt global LNG supplies, driving up gas prices sharply.

But on Thursday the firm reached an agreement in principle with unions, which it is hoped will halt the strike.

Benchmark EU and UK gas prices are down almost 33% since their peak on Tuesday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66603477

Mstty

Just two other (I think) big LNG producers in Australia to go on strike now then to match the Woodside offer.

QrizB

Gas at The ICE is down ~10% so far today for both September and October delivery. I realise this won't directly influence Agile but it does suggest that whatever concerns the markets had, have blown over.

Scot_39

Mstty said:

Just two other (I think) big LNG producers in Australia to go on strike now then to match the Woodside offer.

AFAIK there was no strike - only a vote to go on strike if no agreement at Woodside.  

A standard leverage tool used by workers unions across the world (where allowed). 

So chances are not a single tanker shipment - so total available supply - was impacted

Just the fact it may have been - shows in part the knife edge current EU and UK market pricing is operating on.

30% spike for one day is 1% in a month average - but 10% for a week say adds 2.3% etc - the next CI forecasts - and how companies react to these recent upward swings - even if short term - is going to be interesting.

Those able to fix but perhaps still waiting for a better deal - may find to their cost been ignoring such upside risks.

la531983

The highest auction price for tomorrow is in the 120s, was about 100 higher today, so tomorrow should be back to some form of normality for Agile customers.

Nothing above 39p in my region tomorrow and only 2.5 hours above the government price cap.

spot1034

It's probably worth pointing out that the prices for Q124 did not rise as much as the shorter date prices, nor have they dropped as much today. However they were always significantly higher than Q423 and remain so. 

Mstty

Scot_39 said:

Mstty said:

Just two other (I think) big LNG producers in Australia to go on strike now then to match the Woodside offer.

AFAIK there was no strike - only a vote to go on strike if no agreement at Woodside.  

A standard leverage tool used by workers unions across the world (where allowed). 

So chances are not a single tanker shipment - so total available supply - was impacted

Just the fact it may have been - shows in part the knife edge current EU and UK market pricing is operating on.

30% spike for one day is 1% in a month average - but 10% for a week say adds 2.3% etc - the next CI forecasts - and how companies react to these recent upward swings - even if short term - is going to be interesting.

Those able to fix but perhaps still waiting for a better deal - may find to their cost been ignoring such upside risks.

I know I mentioned that earlier in the post. Eggs suck lol

consumers_revenge

Are these trackers actually any good? was considering a swapout from shell.

Thanks.

mmmmikey

consumers_revenge said:

Are these trackers actually any good? was considering a swapout from shell.

Thanks.

Tricky one to answer. Both Agile and Tracker are good options at the moment, but that could change at any time. If you're the kind of person that is diligent about following things the risks are small but if you take your eye off the ball then you can end up losing out.

Mstty

consumers_revenge said:

Are these trackers actually any good? was considering a swapout from shell.

Thanks.

In a word yes., As stated if you are on the ball.

The average price so far for this month on tracker for us is under 18p kWh for electricity.