Agile Pricing - strange things are afoot...

la531983

stanzelsa said:

I can't even do a panic switch back to flexible cos an absolute mess when I first switched meant they were getting data from the wrong smart meter! So after crediting me over 2K my estimated usage is still over £400 a month over what I use, at £597, I can't agree to that. I only have £730 coming in!

If blips like this are spooking you to this extent maybe it's not the tariff for you. 

Gas has closed down over 11% today which will help. Stop panicking. 

Slinky

Pat38493 said:

stanzelsa said:

I only keep my fridge freezer and lights on during peak. These prices make me want to throw up and peak is until 9pm today! Do you reckon I'm safe to switch the fridge freezer off now til 9?

There are some internet articles stating that items in a "full" freezer should be ok for up to 48 hours if the freezer is kept closed and 24 hours if the freezer is half full.

I am not sure how much power a freezer normally uses and how often it kicks in.

We have an upright fridge and a small chest freezer. I can see our background usage overnight for all items on standby (router, a TV we can't reach the switch, and a few bits and bobs) is 115w per hour. It peaks at about 215w per hour when both fridge and freezer are running at the same time.  Everything overnight between about 10-30pm and 6am uses about 1.5kwh, so I don't think there's much reason to panic or switch a freezer off.

mmmmikey

stanzelsa said:

I only keep my fridge freezer and lights on during peak. These prices make me want to throw up and peak is until 9pm today! Do you reckon I'm safe to switch the fridge freezer off now til 9?

Hi @stanzelsa to put some numbers to this, the average Agile price for tomorrow is 26.34p/kWh and it has been much the same today. It's this average you need to focus on for your fridge freezer because it runs all day (albeit switching itslf on and off as it needs to). This 26.34p/kWh is still a fair bit below the standard rate that most people are paying, and keep in mind this really is much higher than it has been for ages. So although it's easy to be spooked by what seem like alarmingly high prices, the reality is that they are actually more than compensated for by cheap rates at other times. It's a question of having to take the rough with the smooth.

Having said that, if you're not comfortable with these alarming price swings (and you certainly won't be alone in that) then Agile is probably not the best tariff for you. If you're having problems switching to another tariff then if you start another thread explaining the issues there are plenty of folk here who will happy to give you some advice to sorting out any problems.

Hope this helps, Mike

mmmmikey

la531983 said:

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

I don't really understand the relationship between the different markets (or even who/what nordpool and epexspot are), but Agile prices are calculated using data on this page:

https://www.epexspot.com/en/market-data?market_area=GB&modality=Auction&sub_modality=DayAhead&product=30&data_mode=table&period=

By dividing these prices by 10 (to convert them to p/kWh), adding VAT at 5% and multiplying them by 2 (the multiplier for the East Midlands) I can get to the exact Agile prices.

Is it just a question of the epexspot prices being published later in the day than the nordpool prices and prices having fallen through the day? Or is there more to it than that?

la531983

mmmmikey said:

la531983 said:

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

I don't really understand the relationship between the different markets (or even who/what nordpool and epexspot are), but Agile prices are calculated using data on this page:

https://www.epexspot.com/en/market-data?market_area=GB&modality=Auction&sub_modality=DayAhead&product=30&data_mode=table&period=

By dividing these prices by 10 (to convert them to p/kWh), adding VAT at 5% and multiplying them by 2 (the multiplier for the East Midlands) I can get to the exact Agile prices.

Is it just a question of the epexspot prices being published later in the day than the nordpool prices and prices having fallen through the day? Or is there more to it than that?

No idea but the VAT multiplier for Tracker is added at the end, not before other calculations. 

Pat38493

mmmmikey said:

la531983 said:

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

I don't really understand the relationship between the different markets (or even who/what nordpool and epexspot are), but Agile prices are calculated using data on this page:

https://www.epexspot.com/en/market-data?market_area=GB&modality=Auction&sub_modality=DayAhead&product=30&data_mode=table&period=

By dividing these prices by 10 (to convert them to p/kWh), adding VAT at 5% and multiplying them by 2 (the multiplier for the East Midlands) I can get to the exact Agile prices.

Is it just a question of the epexspot prices being published later in the day than the nordpool prices and prices having fallen through the day? Or is there more to it than that?

I might have this completely wrong, but I thought I had read somewhere that Agile pricing is somehow based on the forecast of tomorrow's spot rates, whilst Tracker pricing is based on the results of an auction that takes place to pre-sell short term energy for the next day?  I don't know much about it in detail but this is the impression I got.

Scot_39

Pat38493 said:

la531983 said:

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

Looks like these are still the highest peak prices in the whole of this year though if I am reading the data I downloaded properly?

Also was there a period when the Agile price was capped by the government price cap at 35.98p?  When I downloaded all the data from this year there are a huge number of hours when the price was 35.98.

From posts like this one - which I believe was an email from Octopus

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390859/octopus-agile-the-energy-price-guarantee-and-agile-octopus

I assumed that the EPG interaction operated essentially like the discount on fixes - no help below, capped with a maximum discount - and then only above EPG - if price exceeded EPG+max discount (the 18p/33p/17p over the three quarters)

And I see the same thing if look at say the agile graphs - but the level did not change in Apr.

https://energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-east-midlands/

Which caps at 33.0p for many days under EPG - but not all.

Note I haven't downloaded the raw data - but the SR EPG price iirc for Apr to Jun was 32.4p here in EM.

But that was the SR EPG price for Oct to Dec - 31.446*1.05=33.03p

So I am now thinking perhaps Octopus may have locked in the 17.9p and the SR EPG rates from Oct throughout.

Which in some respects - doesn't seem as fair to agile customers as the rest who benefitted from a 33p max discount in Jan-Mar.  But as it is the 33p level was only exceeded c4 days in that quarter - no real significant harm was done.

But it also kind of ties up the energy-stats uk tariff revisions list  - the last one being -

"AGILE-FLEX-22-11-25 – Cap stays at £1 per unit but new formula only deducts 17.9p from higher unit prices"

And again - your 35.98 - lines up with NW & Mersey EPG rates for Oct-Dec = 34.269*1.05 = 35.982  (using gov uk sr dd tables)

Does anyone have the actual Octopus pricing rules - the latest version doesn't mention EPG at all.

Did it change in Jan / Apr as the caps and discounts for SVT / fixes changed - or as I am now thinking remained locked into Oct SR EPG rates / discounts throughout the 9m of EPG discounts?

QrizB

la531983 said:

No idea but the VAT multiplier for Tracker is added at the end, not before other calculations. 

It's all multiplication; it doesn't matter what order you do it in.

la531983

QrizB said:

la531983 said:

No idea but the VAT multiplier for Tracker is added at the end, not before other calculations. 

It's all multiplication; it doesn't matter what order you do it in.

I see. The Tracker formula has an addition in there so that explains that one. 

markin

stanzelsa said:

I can't even do a panic switch back to flexible cos an absolute mess when I first switched meant they were getting data from the wrong smart meter! So after crediting me over 2K my estimated usage is still over £400 a month over what I use, at £597, I can't agree to that. I only have £730 coming in!

Is it blocking you from adjusting the DD on the website?