Agile Pricing - strange things are afoot...

Pat38493

Scot_39 said:

Pat38493 said:

la531983 said:

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

Looks like these are still the highest peak prices in the whole of this year though if I am reading the data I downloaded properly?

Also was there a period when the Agile price was capped by the government price cap at 35.98p?  When I downloaded all the data from this year there are a huge number of hours when the price was 35.98.

From posts like this one - which I believe was an email from Octopus

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390859/octopus-agile-the-energy-price-guarantee-and-agile-octopus

I assumed that the EPG interaction operated essentially like the discount on fixes - no help below, capped with a maximum discount - and then only above EPG - if price exceeded EPG+max discount (the 18p/33p/17p over the three quarters)

And I see the same thing if look at say the agile graphs - but the level did not change in Apr.

https://energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-east-midlands/

Which caps at 33.0p for many days under EPG - but not all.

Note I haven't downloaded the raw data - but the SR EPG price iirc for Apr to Jun was 32.4p here in EM.

But that was the SR EPG price for Oct to Dec - 31.446*1.05=33.03p

So I am now thinking perhaps Octopus may have locked in the 17.9p and the SR EPG rates from Oct throughout.

Which in some respects - doesn't seem as fair to agile customers as the rest who benefitted from a 33p max discount in Jan-Mar.  But as it is the 33p level was only exceeded c4 days in that quarter - no real significant harm was done.

But it also kind of ties up the energy-stats uk tariff revisions list  - the last one being -

"AGILE-FLEX-22-11-25 – Cap stays at £1 per unit but new formula only deducts 17.9p from higher unit prices"

And again - your 35.98 - lines up with NW & Mersey EPG rates for Oct-Dec = 34.269*1.05 = 35.982  (using gov uk sr dd tables)

Does anyone have the actual Octopus pricing rules - the latest version doesn't mention EPG at all.

Did it change in Jan / Apr as the caps and discounts for SVT / fixes changed - or as I am now thinking remained locked into Oct SR EPG rates / discounts throughout the 9m of EPG discounts?

Too late to fully digest your post but yes it’s NW Mersey rates I am using as I am in Cheshire 

mmmmikey

Pat38493 said:

Scot_39 said:

Pat38493 said:

la531983 said:

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

Looks like these are still the highest peak prices in the whole of this year though if I am reading the data I downloaded properly?

Also was there a period when the Agile price was capped by the government price cap at 35.98p?  When I downloaded all the data from this year there are a huge number of hours when the price was 35.98.

From posts like this one - which I believe was an email from Octopus

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6390859/octopus-agile-the-energy-price-guarantee-and-agile-octopus

I assumed that the EPG interaction operated essentially like the discount on fixes - no help below, capped with a maximum discount - and then only above EPG - if price exceeded EPG+max discount (the 18p/33p/17p over the three quarters)

And I see the same thing if look at say the agile graphs - but the level did not change in Apr.

https://energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-east-midlands/

Which caps at 33.0p for many days under EPG - but not all.

Note I haven't downloaded the raw data - but the SR EPG price iirc for Apr to Jun was 32.4p here in EM.

But that was the SR EPG price for Oct to Dec - 31.446*1.05=33.03p

So I am now thinking perhaps Octopus may have locked in the 17.9p and the SR EPG rates from Oct throughout.

Which in some respects - doesn't seem as fair to agile customers as the rest who benefitted from a 33p max discount in Jan-Mar.  But as it is the 33p level was only exceeded c4 days in that quarter - no real significant harm was done.

But it also kind of ties up the energy-stats uk tariff revisions list  - the last one being -

"AGILE-FLEX-22-11-25 – Cap stays at £1 per unit but new formula only deducts 17.9p from higher unit prices"

And again - your 35.98 - lines up with NW & Mersey EPG rates for Oct-Dec = 34.269*1.05 = 35.982  (using gov uk sr dd tables)

Does anyone have the actual Octopus pricing rules - the latest version doesn't mention EPG at all.

Did it change in Jan / Apr as the caps and discounts for SVT / fixes changed - or as I am now thinking remained locked into Oct SR EPG rates / discounts throughout the 9m of EPG discounts?

Too late to fully digest your post but yes it’s NW Mersey rates I am using as I am in Cheshire 

To keep the number simple, assume the Ofgem cap was 55p/kWh and the EPG discount was 20p/kWh. This meant that a customer on a SVR was paying 35p/kWh.

For Agile customers the discount was applied as follows:

Price below 35p - no discount
Price between 35p and 55p - discount applied to take the Agile price down to 35p
55p and above - 20p discount applied

So when you look at Agile data for your region you will see a price of whatever the EPG price cap was for your region for any time that the pre discount price was between the Ofgem price cap and the lower EPG discounted price.

You can't work backwards to see what the price would have been because (using the numbers from my simplified fictitious example above) a discounted Agile price of 35p could relate to a pre discounted price anywhere between 35p and 55p

Hope this makes sense....

Largs

I really do find some of these posts odd. 

You have someone who only joined this month, but is an expert on everything it seems.  But where were they before August?  Need I ask.   

Then people moaning about a unit price rise, knowing full well that could happen when they signed up for the tariff. 

It's like me going and spending £50 I can't really afford to sit in Mecca bingo hall all night, then moaning to all and sundry that I never won the full house and am now sknt.  That's not how it works.

Mstty

Largs said:

I really do find some of these posts odd. 

You have someone who only joined this month, but is an expert on everything it seems.  But where were they before August?  Need I ask.   

Then people moaning about a unit price rise, knowing full well that could happen when they signed up for the tariff. 

It's like me going and spending £50 I can't really afford to sit in Mecca bingo hall all night, then moaning to all and sundry that I never won the full house and am now sknt.  That's not how it works.

Perhaps they are a banned user with another name? 

Long time lurker (I like that one there's someone else relatively knew that cites war and peace and knowledge like they have been here for a decade)

spot1034

Well it looks as if the prospect of strikes in Australia is receding and gas prices are sharply down in early trade. So we move on to await the next worry which will send them up again. Perhaps we should have a sweepstake on what it might be!

la531983

Largs said:

I really do find some of these posts odd. 

You have someone who only joined this month, but is an expert on everything it seems.  But where were they before August?  Need I ask.   

Is there a problem, officer?
Go and grab another coffee maybe. 

mmmmikey

spot1034 said:

Well it looks as if the prospect of strikes in Australia is receding and gas prices are sharply down in early trade. So we move on to await the next worry which will send them up again. Perhaps we should have a sweepstake on what it might be!

Indeed, we're certainly into we don't know what we don't know territory and anything could happen.

Makes me wonder why folks put so much emphasis on the Cornwall Insight prices and try and decide whether to stick with the SVR or fix at about the same price in the hope of saving a few quid without an obvious understanding of the downside risks of taking the gamble of a variable tariff. It's one thing gambling on Agile or Tracker where the potential upside gains are significant, it's another thing gambling on the SVR where the upside gains are at best fairly small.

It's not to say that the CI prices are of no interest and I always read the posts on them but I just think too much emphasis is put on them sometimes.

I personally don't expect another significant "game changing" price shock even though blips seem inevitable. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if there was one.

In the meantime, interesting to track and attempt to understand Agile price swings as they happen in order to help inform any future "should I stay or should I go" decision.

Mstty

In fairness the CI forecast do a lot of the donkey work that energy suppliers also have to do to come up with fixed rate deals that are in their favour.

They are a guide for us all, but just that a guide.

Let's not kid ourselves though we are all playing the energy stock market now unless you grab a fix and tune out of all the media dross.

Mstty

Just to add to the energy stock market gamble above and this isn't for everyone.

So our plan is to get our energy bill below £1500 this year (details of house in signature)

We plan to do this in the following way.

Moved to Octopus £50 referral fee - done
Switch to Agile - done
Moved to tracker - done
Referred two people £100 reward - done
Log everything daily in the spreadsheet - ongoing
At the appropriate time move to Cosy Octopus - not yet
At the appropriate time move back to Agile

Our own forecast and energy usage suggest we can achieve a median of 24p kWh for electricity but we are being less strict on energy usage this year so expect 6250 kWh so £1260 and averaging the SC's out £146 a year. Then take off the £150 initial join and referrals approx £1250 a year or just over £100 a month.

If the plan works that's a ridiculous amount to pay for energy back to reasonable days for a 5 bed house.

The following year due to the 9 month wait to rejoin tracker we will switch when we are allowed.

So that's the plan and we enjoy monitoring the prices and usage and can do this as we work from home full time so can shift our usage easily. 

la531983

The Tracker prices are out and my region has gone from 22.06p today to 19.16p tomorrow, so should be a step in the right direction for Agile customers too (hopefully)