Agile Pricing - strange things are afoot...

la531983

Peak pricing going to be even higher tomorrow, sorry to report. Look at the hourly wholesale pricing compared to today....

https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/#/n2ex/table

Scot_39

Perfect storm 

1) market speculation on gas due to Australian LNG

(strike action that might be confirmed at one "area / supplier - Woodside's NWS" worth 4% of world supply today - as 1/2 day ahead maybe the union deadline passed - and the 2 other "areas/ suppliers" where talks forecast to come to a head Mon the 3 combined add to 10% supply) 

2) warm temperatures across EU - impacting their demand - and the direction of interconnect energy flow - France taking over 2GW yesterday aft and last night etc.  Temp or EDF nuclear issues as last summer ?

and 

3) a lack of wind across large sections of UK.

And so currently over 1/2 electric is coming from gas and coal - and another 2.5% from biomass - all busily emitting C02 and other noxious/green house gases - because we built renewables - but not the storage needed to make them a reliable energy source.  

And later this afternoon when the c19% from solar starts to disappears (peaking soon - roll off in earnest c3pm - 8pm based on past 24 hours charts at grid iamkate )- that percentage will be far higher.

And as one poster noted above - last Aug - c21 - UK wholesale rates peaked at c£500/MWh - based on just 2 and 3.  (25% higher than the longer spike in Dec - which reached c£400/MWh over peak week - again in large part due to several days of low wind output)

And we all know speculators love to profit from a crisis.  So 1) will not be helping.

la531983

Indeed the coal power stations have been fired up already, as wind isnt plentiful today at all.

A positive though - gas prices have just dive bombed 10% in the space of two hours, wiping out the late 10% rise late on yesterday, so at least thats something. Maybe some news has come out at Woodside.

la531983

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

Pat38493

la531983 said:

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

Looks like these are still the highest peak prices in the whole of this year though if I am reading the data I downloaded properly?

Also was there a period when the Agile price was capped by the government price cap at 35.98p?  When I downloaded all the data from this year there are a huge number of hours when the price was 35.98.

stanzelsa

I only keep my fridge freezer and lights on during peak. These prices make me want to throw up and peak is until 9pm today! Do you reckon I'm safe to switch the fridge freezer off now til 9?

la531983

stanzelsa said:

I only keep my fridge freezer and lights on during peak. These prices make me want to throw up and peak is until 9pm today! Do you reckon I'm safe to switch the fridge freezer off now til 9?

Should be fine if you keep them shut. 

la531983

Pat38493 said:

la531983 said:

Peak prices tomorrow actually coming out at slightly better than today, which is an oddity, but I suppose Agile customers will take that.

Looks like these are still the highest peak prices in the whole of this year though if I am reading the data I downloaded properly?

Also was there a period when the Agile price was capped by the government price cap at 35.98p?  When I downloaded all the data from this year there are a huge number of hours when the price was 35.98.

I believe the Price Guarantee deducted up to a set amount off the price, I have 17p in my head for some reason, to bring it back down to the cap. The background price must have never got into the mid 50s.

Pat38493

stanzelsa said:

I only keep my fridge freezer and lights on during peak. These prices make me want to throw up and peak is until 9pm today! Do you reckon I'm safe to switch the fridge freezer off now til 9?

There are some internet articles stating that items in a "full" freezer should be ok for up to 48 hours if the freezer is kept closed and 24 hours if the freezer is half full.

I am not sure how much power a freezer normally uses and how often it kicks in.

stanzelsa

I can't even do a panic switch back to flexible cos an absolute mess when I first switched meant they were getting data from the wrong smart meter! So after crediting me over 2K my estimated usage is still over £400 a month over what I use, at £597, I can't agree to that. I only have £730 coming in!