Octopus Agile

Netexporter

You normally get the next day actual prices at about 4pm (although they've been late, recently) but there are some apps that estimate (not guaranteed) a bit further ahead.

PennineAcute

kingwheeler said:

Hi, I'm looking to move to Octopus Agile and just doing a little research on recent prices etc to see how good it's been. 

Basically I want to know if you can see up coming prices or not.

A few diff pages I've seen seem to give prices coming up/in the future. Is this true? Are they accurate or predictions?

e.g.
https://mysmartenergy.uk/Prices/London
https://www.guylipman.com/octopus/prices.html?region=C&startdate=2023-09-26&enddate=2023-09-28

Around 4pm the prices for 11pm to 11pm the following day are announced.  Any future prices you see before 4pm or for after 11pm the following day are predictions and nothing else.

kingwheeler

PennineAcute said:

kingwheeler said:

Hi, I'm looking to move to Octopus Agile and just doing a little research on recent prices etc to see how good it's been. 

Basically I want to know if you can see up coming prices or not.

A few diff pages I've seen seem to give prices coming up/in the future. Is this true? Are they accurate or predictions?

e.g.
https://mysmartenergy.uk/Prices/London
https://www.guylipman.com/octopus/prices.html?region=C&startdate=2023-09-26&enddate=2023-09-28

Around 4pm the prices for 11pm to 11pm the following day are announced.  Any future prices you see before 4pm or for after 11pm the following day are predictions and nothing else.

Ah ok, so when tmrw's prices are released (in theory they were due 18mins ago, if it's bang on 4pm) then I'll know up till 11pm tmrw night?

Which is why I can see up to 11pm today on those two sites I linked.

Great. That's pretty cool that you can plan the night ahead and not get caught out with any changes/sudden spikes to the dreaded 100p/kwh cap!

Thanks everyone

Pat38493

kingwheeler said:

PennineAcute said:

kingwheeler said:

Hi, I'm looking to move to Octopus Agile and just doing a little research on recent prices etc to see how good it's been. 

Basically I want to know if you can see up coming prices or not.

A few diff pages I've seen seem to give prices coming up/in the future. Is this true? Are they accurate or predictions?

e.g.
https://mysmartenergy.uk/Prices/London
https://www.guylipman.com/octopus/prices.html?region=C&startdate=2023-09-26&enddate=2023-09-28

Around 4pm the prices for 11pm to 11pm the following day are announced.  Any future prices you see before 4pm or for after 11pm the following day are predictions and nothing else.

Ah ok, so when tmrw's prices are released (in theory they were due 18mins ago, if it's bang on 4pm) then I'll know up till 11pm tmrw night?

Which is why I can see up to 11pm today on those two sites I linked.

Great. That's pretty cool that you can plan the night ahead and not get caught out with any changes/sudden spikes to the dreaded 100p/kwh cap!

Thanks everyone

Up until recently the next day prices were released almost bang on 4pm.  However in the last week, it's been later quite a few times - yesterday I think it was more like 7pm.  Nobody knows why that has changed as even on the Octopus website I think it says they are released normally at 4pm.

There are some apps and sites that provide forecasts up to 48 hours ahead.  Octopus Watch is an oft quoted app, but you have to subscribe at a small cost to get the 48 hour forecast.

Even there, the forecast for the following day is a rough guess up until about 10am - after 10am it seems to be become a lot more accurate.

 This is because the market index that's used to price the Tracker tariff is released at 10am each day.  The index that's used to price the agile tariff comes out around 4pm, but the first one is going to be a pretty good guide to the second one unless something big changes between 10 and 4.

Just be aware that for most people, you need to load shift quite a lot of usage to beat the tracker tariff on a long term basis.

Netexporter

I  suspect the lateness might be due to Ofgem giving the figures a coat of looking at, since they caught some generators gaming the system recently.

PennineAcute

Pat38493 said:

kingwheeler said:

PennineAcute said:

kingwheeler said:

Hi, I'm looking to move to Octopus Agile and just doing a little research on recent prices etc to see how good it's been. 

Basically I want to know if you can see up coming prices or not.

A few diff pages I've seen seem to give prices coming up/in the future. Is this true? Are they accurate or predictions?

e.g.
https://mysmartenergy.uk/Prices/London
https://www.guylipman.com/octopus/prices.html?region=C&startdate=2023-09-26&enddate=2023-09-28

Around 4pm the prices for 11pm to 11pm the following day are announced.  Any future prices you see before 4pm or for after 11pm the following day are predictions and nothing else.

Ah ok, so when tmrw's prices are released (in theory they were due 18mins ago, if it's bang on 4pm) then I'll know up till 11pm tmrw night?

Which is why I can see up to 11pm today on those two sites I linked.

Great. That's pretty cool that you can plan the night ahead and not get caught out with any changes/sudden spikes to the dreaded 100p/kwh cap!

Thanks everyone

Up until recently the next day prices were released almost bang on 4pm.  However in the last week, it's been later quite a few times - yesterday I think it was more like 7pm.  Nobody knows why that has changed as even on the Octopus website I think it says they are released normally at 4pm.

There are some apps and sites that provide forecasts up to 48 hours ahead.  Octopus Watch is an oft quoted app, but you have to subscribe at a small cost to get the 48 hour forecast.

Even there, the forecast for the following day is a rough guess up until about 10am - after 10am it seems to be become a lot more accurate.

 This is because the market index that's used to price the Tracker tariff is released at 10am each day.  The index that's used to price the agile tariff comes out around 4pm, but the first one is going to be a pretty good guide to the second one unless something big changes between 10 and 4.

Just be aware that for most people, you need to load shift quite a lot of usage to beat the tracker tariff on a long term basis.

Yes, I moved from Agile to tracker and increased my savings (to date) by 8p a day.

BeerSavesMoney

kingwheeler said:

PennineAcute said:

kingwheeler said:

Hi, I'm looking to move to Octopus Agile and just doing a little research on recent prices etc to see how good it's been. 

Basically I want to know if you can see up coming prices or not.

A few diff pages I've seen seem to give prices coming up/in the future. Is this true? Are they accurate or predictions?

e.g.
https://mysmartenergy.uk/Prices/London
https://www.guylipman.com/octopus/prices.html?region=C&startdate=2023-09-26&enddate=2023-09-28

Around 4pm the prices for 11pm to 11pm the following day are announced.  Any future prices you see before 4pm or for after 11pm the following day are predictions and nothing else.

Ah ok, so when tmrw's prices are released (in theory they were due 18mins ago, if it's bang on 4pm) then I'll know up till 11pm tmrw night?

Which is why I can see up to 11pm today on those two sites I linked.

Great. That's pretty cool that you can plan the night ahead and not get caught out with any changes/sudden spikes to the dreaded 100p/kwh cap!

Thanks everyone

2.3.1 Prices for the Agile Octopus tariff are calculated based on a formula related to wholesale costs, and are usually published between 16:00-22:00 (normally, but not always, nearer 16:00), for the following day, with a different price for every 30 minutes of every day.

https://octopus.energy/policies/smart-tariffs-terms-and-condition/#agileoctopus

Generally they have been published around 4pm but as others have mentioned they’ve been published later recently, from the t&cs they could be published as late as 10pm.

kingwheeler

PennineAcute said:

Pat38493 said:

Just be aware that for most people, you need to load shift quite a lot of usage to beat the tracker tariff on a long term basis.

Yes, I moved from Agile to tracker and increased my savings (to date) by 8p a day.

Oh....ok this I was not expecting. Is it because like most of your daily usage still happens all day long? We have electric heating/water and cooking, zero gas anywhere, so if we did all our hot water, washing machines, dishwasher, and heated the house at non 4-7pm times, we'd surely be ahead, no?

The only things I can think of that are on non stop are lighting, tv/laptop, and fridge.

Spies

Should be a nice bit of plunge pricing between 1am amd 5:30am when the prices eventually get published. 

mmmmikey

kingwheeler said:

PennineAcute said:

Pat38493 said:

Just be aware that for most people, you need to load shift quite a lot of usage to beat the tracker tariff on a long term basis.

Yes, I moved from Agile to tracker and increased my savings (to date) by 8p a day.

Oh....ok this I was not expecting. Is it because like most of your daily usage still happens all day long? We have electric heating/water and cooking, zero gas anywhere, so if we did all our hot water, washing machines, dishwasher, and heated the house at non 4-7pm times, we'd surely be ahead, no?

The only things I can think of that are on non stop are lighting, tv/laptop, and fridge.

If you get the Octopus Watch it will show you how much you pay on average per kWh each day and you can then compare that with the Tracker price. It certainly is possible to save money on Agile, but you need to be focused on using things at the right time and have a lifestyle that lends itself to that, and/or have the technology in place to help you manage things. Some folks can make it work for them without too much effort - fo others it's easier and often cheaper to use Tracker. The "killers" that could well get you are cooking your evening meal using electricity at peak times and/or having teenage kids that are using games console and the like at those times.

Over the last 122 days (i.e. since I started on Agile) I've averaged 8.46p/kWh vs. 15.07p/kWh which is what Tracker would have cost me over the same period. BUT this is probably unrealistic for many (most?) people because (a) I'm a very low user living on my own so can easily target the cheap times (b) I have all the technology in place (batteries, solar panels, smart home tech) to help me (c) playing with the tech has become something of a hobby so I've spent a silly amount of time monitoring things and getting everything set up.

Worth having a try and see how you get on, though - and definitely worth downloading and familiarising yourself with Octopus Watch, IMHO.