Octopus Agile

Netexporter

I meant the local distribution network getting trashed. I'm not far from the Irish Sea, which is going to become a bit lively, according to the forecasts.

mmmmikey

....I'm in Lincolnshire, so not far from the Humber Estuary / North Sea wind farms if you want to pop over here with your batteries :-)

This discussion has got me rethinking my hot water heating strategy. I only need to heat the water every 3 days, so if I can reasoanbly accurately predict low pricing a couple of days ahead I can run the tank down and then heat it up again on a cheap day. But need to factor in the additonal heat losses from a hotter cylinder. Something to consider, and if I can establish a link between prices, temperature and North Sea wind speed forecasts from the Met Office forecast data I sould be able to automate it.

mmmmikey

Octopus Watch predicting eye-wateringly high non-peak prices tomorrow - payback time for the last few days if it actually proves correct. I wonder if this is what it's going to be like through the winter or whether the rapid fluctuations we're seing at the moment are an autumn / spring thing?

Netexporter

Late posting the prices, again. I wonder if it is anything to do with Ofgem catching some generators gaming the system?

BeerSavesMoney

Netexporter said:

Late posting the prices, again. I wonder if it is anything to do with Ofgem catching some generators gaming the system?

The have been published now.

la531983

mmmmikey said:

Octopus Watch predicting eye-wateringly high non-peak prices tomorrow

Assume this was woefully wrong, pricing today doesnt look much worse than yesterday?

Early indications are very cheap between midnight and 6am tomorrow with a possible plunge between 4 and 5am.

mmmmikey

la531983 said:

mmmmikey said:

Octopus Watch predicting eye-wateringly high non-peak prices tomorrow

Assume this was woefully wrong, pricing today doesnt look much worse than yesterday?

Early indications are very cheap between midnight and 6am tomorrow with a possible plunge between 4 and 5am.

Yes, at the time I posted this, Octopus Watch was predicting about 25p/kWh for most of the off peak times. Later in the day the predictions changed to about what they are now. Makes me wonder what the original predictions were based on.

Octopus Watch now predicting prices much as you say.

Pat38493

mmmmikey said:

la531983 said:

mmmmikey said:

Octopus Watch predicting eye-wateringly high non-peak prices tomorrow

Assume this was woefully wrong, pricing today doesnt look much worse than yesterday?

Early indications are very cheap between midnight and 6am tomorrow with a possible plunge between 4 and 5am.

Yes, at the time I posted this, Octopus Watch was predicting about 25p/kWh for most of the off peak times. Later in the day the predictions changed to about what they are now. Makes me wonder what the original predictions were based on.

Octopus Watch now predicting prices much as you say.

I stand to be corrected but I would suspect that the predictions are roughly based on a combination of annual averages and weather forecasts until the 10am data is available and then it changes to be more accurate.

mmmmikey

Pat38493 said:

mmmmikey said:

la531983 said:

mmmmikey said:

Octopus Watch predicting eye-wateringly high non-peak prices tomorrow

Assume this was woefully wrong, pricing today doesnt look much worse than yesterday?

Early indications are very cheap between midnight and 6am tomorrow with a possible plunge between 4 and 5am.

Yes, at the time I posted this, Octopus Watch was predicting about 25p/kWh for most of the off peak times. Later in the day the predictions changed to about what they are now. Makes me wonder what the original predictions were based on.

Octopus Watch now predicting prices much as you say.

I stand to be corrected but I would suspect that the predictions are roughly based on a combination of annual averages and weather forecasts until the 10am data is available and then it changes to be more accurate.

That certainly makes sense, it does seem to update mid morning most days, although I haven't really been focused on it for long. Weather forecast has changed too with the yellow warning cancelled (where I am at least).

kingwheeler

Hi, I'm looking to move to Octopus Agile and just doing a little research on recent prices etc to see how good it's been. 

Basically I want to know if you can see up coming prices or not.

A few diff pages I've seen seem to give prices coming up/in the future. Is this true? Are they accurate or predictions?

e.g.
https://mysmartenergy.uk/Prices/London
https://www.guylipman.com/octopus/prices.html?region=C&startdate=2023-09-26&enddate=2023-09-28