I'm timing the market - who's in?

NedS

coastline said:

NedS said:

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE     BUY/SELL     ISF PRICE         VALUE           
18 JAN        SELL            765.40         £99,987.05

Nice.

I'm still holding 10,000 shares out of my original 17,000 position. I missed the opportunity to offload the rest at the end of last week - my own fault, I was not around to make the trade, and set the sell order a little too high (greedy for that last half a percent), and missed an opportunity to bag 426p

If prices take a second look at ~425p I'll sell the remaining, otherwise I'm a hold and wait to capture any short term fall from the partial sale.

Lets see where prices take us from here.

As I posted 12th JAN it pays to watch the US markets and my chosen indicators have swiftly moved from oversold to overbought. Alert time. Yesterday 18th JAN poor economic data appeared to upset the US market and gathered pace during UK hours. Nobody knows for sure what triggers rapid moves but sometimes it just needs a catalyst . UK had held up all last week with the helping hand from the US showing you can remain overbought for a good while. That's where I use the stop loss or 10 day moving average as a guide. We ended up with a big red candle on the SP500 so I pulled the trigger on my ISF.L late yesterday. Could have it all wrong but we go again when it's oversold.

Agree with your analysis completely. Had I executed better, I'd be out now too but that was just poor execution on my behalf this time. So I'm holding 10,000 out of 17,000 shares, and if prices do now fall I will be looking for a re-entry point for the cash realised from the part sale of 7,000 shares. Initial thoughts are below 400p (~5% drop), so should hopefully be able to pick up an extra ~350 shares or more on re-entry at zero cost.

Prism

adindas said:

Surprisingly those who were suggesting other people to throw  a few hundred thousands lump sum in one go have never done that themselves and are now silent. Most of the advice not to time the market is referring to the bull market, as in the bull the market, the market goes up more than it falls. so whenever you throw your money it will always go up in the future. It is different with the bear market as the market will go up and down like yoyo before sometimes falling again reaching a new 52-weeks low. The bear market could take months, years before turning into the bull market.

If the expert consensus (if not all) is we are in the bear market and they have been saying what strategy work better, also reflected from their action in the bear market and people still do not get it, that is the problem.

You do not need statistics to know that most people those who have done drip-feeding (DCA) have done better than those who throw lump-sum a few hundred thousand pound in the current market. Unless for person who had a crystal ball or a few people who were very lucky to catch the bottom by randomly throwing their lump-sum money. But considering the bottom were only a few days, that probability is very low. Never mind  the market could go lower this year considering the bear market is not over yet.

Everyone could easily see that +3.9% partly sitting in saving waiting allocation for DCA is higher than negative return say -15% from the market.

Here is an example which hopefully explains why I don't agree with your reasoning.

There are two people, one who invested in equities a while back and the other kept it in cash. However at this moment they have exactly the same amount which is £100k. We are in a bear market as their index has dropped by 20% recently. 

The first person, who is currently invested in equities is getting nervous and their mouse is hovering over the sell button.
The second person, after being advised on a forum to lump sum it all in, is hovering over the buy button.

What would you do if you were them? Are you suggesting that there should be different advice for these two people? Or if you don't think that the second person should lump sum it in then surely the first person should sell out. Then they could drip feed in together over the next year or so. If the first person should sell out, then surely everybody should sell out under the same conditions.

The history of how they got to this point isn't relevant - its what they do today

For reference I have previously lump summed a few hundred thousand pounds in around 10 minutes, which is the time it took to click the buttons. Although I didn't know, it happened to be during a downturn and it was a great bit of luck in hindsight, although that had no affect on my choice.

MiserlyMartin

Deleted_User said:

Not so much the market but interest rates.

I've a feeling they haven't got much more to go this year before they start coming down in Q3.

So I horsed 600k into a Barclays 1 year Savings Bond this morning at 3.9%.

£23,400 gross without having to worry too much.

I use my SIPP for day trading but best not talk about that in case the missus reads this ...

They won't be coming down. Inflation will be high for years. They can't fight 11% RPI with 3.5%

adindas

Prism said:

adindas said:

Surprisingly those who were suggesting other people to throw  a few hundred thousands lump sum in one go have never done that themselves and are now silent. Most of the advice not to time the market is referring to the bull market, as in the bull the market, the market goes up more than it falls. so whenever you throw your money it will always go up in the future. It is different with the bear market as the market will go up and down like yoyo before sometimes falling again reaching a new 52-weeks low. The bear market could take months, years before turning into the bull market.

If the expert consensus (if not all) is we are in the bear market and they have been saying what strategy work better, also reflected from their action in the bear market and people still do not get it, that is the problem.

You do not need statistics to know that most people those who have done drip-feeding (DCA) have done better than those who throw lump-sum a few hundred thousand pound in the current market. Unless for person who had a crystal ball or a few people who were very lucky to catch the bottom by randomly throwing their lump-sum money. But considering the bottom were only a few days, that probability is very low. Never mind  the market could go lower this year considering the bear market is not over yet.

Everyone could easily see that +3.9% partly sitting in saving waiting allocation for DCA is higher than negative return say -15% from the market.

Here is an example which hopefully explains why I don't agree with your reasoning.

There are two people, one who invested in equities a while back and the other kept it in cash. However at this moment they have exactly the same amount which is £100k. We are in a bear market as their index has dropped by 20% recently. 

The first person, who is currently invested in equities is getting nervous and their mouse is hovering over the sell button.
The second person, after being advised on a forum to lump sum it all in, is hovering over the buy button.

What would you do if you were them? Are you suggesting that there should be different advice for these two people? Or if you don't think that the second person should lump sum it in then surely the first person should sell out. Then they could drip feed in together over the next year or so. If the first person should sell out, then surely everybody should sell out under the same conditions.

The history of how they got to this point isn't relevant - its what they do today

For reference I have previously lump summed a few hundred thousand pounds in around 10 minutes, which is the time it took to click the buttons. Although I didn't know, it happened to be during a downturn and it was a great bit of luck in hindsight, although that had no affect on my choice.

Well I do not give advice. That is just personal opinion

Sensible people will prefer to listen to what the smart money, what the proven billionaires investors, analysts, strategist are doing, not from random people on the internet. If you follow the investment channel most strategists (if not all) are against to fully invest put all of the money in stock market during the bear market.

This is what they have been saying :

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2619975-dca-vs-lump-sum-investing

https://www.capitalgroup.com/pcs/insights/articles/benefits-of-dollar-cost-averaging-spring-2020.html A simple approach can help limit the downside during a bear market

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/dollar cost averaging 2

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417 Smart Strategies for a Bear Market By The Investopedia Team May 30, 2022

https://www.capitalgroup.com/pcs/insights/articles/benefits of dollar cost averaging spring 2020.html A simple approach can help limit the downside during a bear market

https://www.fool.com/investing/stock market/basics/dollar cost averaging/

https://www.investors.com/etfs and funds/mutual funds/dollar cost averaging is good for a falling market/ Dollar Cost Averaging Good In A Falling Market

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/dollar-cost-averaging-is-good-for-a-falling-market/

Also this is one example of what proven billionaire investors  is doing

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/warren-buffett-is-sitting-on-a-200b-cash-pile-but-can-t-find-a-deal-20220228-p5a067.html Warren Buffett is sitting on a $200b cash pile but can’t find a deal By Josh Funk February 28, 2022

In the bear market the market fall more than it raises. Unless  you have a crystal ball so you could call the bottom, or you are among a few people who were very lucky to call the bottom (as the bottom is only a few days), But what about the people who threw lump-sum early 2022. People will get a better probability to get a better result by doing DCA. Some People who have lump sum of a few hundred thousands to throw in the market see DCA is timing the market.

And people could easily see that many of those who have done DCA have beaten the market considering part of the money are sitting in high interest saving account, RSA waiting allocation for drip-feeding (DCA). One RSA is paying 7%, reasonable number are paying 4.5%-5% majority are easy access. Reasonable number of one year or less than one year fix rate saving pay around 4%.

Everyone could easily see that 5% is bigger than -15% (say) is not it.

Certainty, people could do whatever they want with their own money. Similarly, people are free to assume that they know better, more knowledgeable than investment strategists, proven billionaire investors.

NedS

Closed out the week unchanged. US markets finished the week strongly, and the S&P500 was broadly flat on the week

adindas said:

Well I do not give advice. That is just personal opinion

If you have a strategy you favour, feel free to play along - you've seen the rules. Put up a notional £100K, pick a FTSE100 ETF, follow your strategy, post your trades and we will see how we've all faired at the end of the year - the numbers speak for themselves.

Prism

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Surprisingly those who were suggesting other people to throw  a few hundred thousands lump sum in one go have never done that themselves and are now silent. Most of the advice not to time the market is referring to the bull market, as in the bull the market, the market goes up more than it falls. so whenever you throw your money it will always go up in the future. It is different with the bear market as the market will go up and down like yoyo before sometimes falling again reaching a new 52-weeks low. The bear market could take months, years before turning into the bull market.

If the expert consensus (if not all) is we are in the bear market and they have been saying what strategy work better, also reflected from their action in the bear market and people still do not get it, that is the problem.

You do not need statistics to know that most people those who have done drip-feeding (DCA) have done better than those who throw lump-sum a few hundred thousand pound in the current market. Unless for person who had a crystal ball or a few people who were very lucky to catch the bottom by randomly throwing their lump-sum money. But considering the bottom were only a few days, that probability is very low. Never mind  the market could go lower this year considering the bear market is not over yet.

Everyone could easily see that +3.9% partly sitting in saving waiting allocation for DCA is higher than negative return say -15% from the market.

Here is an example which hopefully explains why I don't agree with your reasoning.

There are two people, one who invested in equities a while back and the other kept it in cash. However at this moment they have exactly the same amount which is £100k. We are in a bear market as their index has dropped by 20% recently. 

The first person, who is currently invested in equities is getting nervous and their mouse is hovering over the sell button.
The second person, after being advised on a forum to lump sum it all in, is hovering over the buy button.

What would you do if you were them? Are you suggesting that there should be different advice for these two people? Or if you don't think that the second person should lump sum it in then surely the first person should sell out. Then they could drip feed in together over the next year or so. If the first person should sell out, then surely everybody should sell out under the same conditions.

The history of how they got to this point isn't relevant - its what they do today

For reference I have previously lump summed a few hundred thousand pounds in around 10 minutes, which is the time it took to click the buttons. Although I didn't know, it happened to be during a downturn and it was a great bit of luck in hindsight, although that had no affect on my choice.

Well I do not give advice. That is just personal opinion

Sensible people will prefer to listen to what the smart money, what the proven billionaires investors, analysts, strategist are doing, not from random people on the internet. If you follow the investment channel most strategists (if not all) are against to fully invest put all of the money in stock market during the bear market.

This is what they have been saying :

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2619975-dca-vs-lump-sum-investing

https://www.capitalgroup.com/pcs/insights/articles/benefits-of-dollar-cost-averaging-spring-2020.html A simple approach can help limit the downside during a bear market

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/dollar cost averaging 2

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417 Smart Strategies for a Bear Market By The Investopedia Team May 30, 2022

https://www.capitalgroup.com/pcs/insights/articles/benefits of dollar cost averaging spring 2020.html A simple approach can help limit the downside during a bear market

https://www.fool.com/investing/stock market/basics/dollar cost averaging/

https://www.investors.com/etfs and funds/mutual funds/dollar cost averaging is good for a falling market/ Dollar Cost Averaging Good In A Falling Market

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/dollar-cost-averaging-is-good-for-a-falling-market/

Also this is one example of what proven billionaire investors  is doing

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/warren-buffett-is-sitting-on-a-200b-cash-pile-but-can-t-find-a-deal-20220228-p5a067.html Warren Buffett is sitting on a $200b cash pile but can’t find a deal By Josh Funk February 28, 2022

In the bear market the market fall more than it raises. Unless  you have a crystal ball so you could call the bottom, or you are among a few people who were very lucky to call the bottom (as the bottom is only a few days), But what about the people who threw lump-sum early 2022. People will get a better probability to get a better result by doing DCA. Some People who have lump sum of a few hundred thousands to throw in the market see DCA is timing the market.

And people could easily see that many of those who have done DCA have beaten the market considering part of the money are sitting in high interest saving account, RSA waiting allocation for drip-feeding (DCA). One RSA is paying 7%, reasonable number are paying 4.5%-5% majority are easy access. Reasonable number of one year or less than one year fix rate saving pay around 4%.

Everyone could easily see that 5% is bigger than -15% (say) is not it.

Certainty, people could do whatever they want with their own money. Similarly, people are free to assume that they know better, more knowledgeable than investment strategists, proven billionaire investors.

The majority of those quotes are by financial journalists who are paid to print words - not make investing decisions. The investor of any significance amongst that list is Warren Buffett but that article based on his letter is nothing to do with your point. Its based on the letter describing 2021 - a full blown bull market. Berkshire finds it difficult to invest money in general due to its size and certainly doesn't invest like the rest of us. 

Since nobody knows if the equity markets are going up or down at any given time, the only reasonable suggestion is to invest what you have, when you have it. Those who hold back or sell out when the going gets tough generally do worse than the market and those who stay invested.

adindas

Prism said:

adindas said:

Prism said:

adindas said:

Surprisingly those who were suggesting other people to throw  a few hundred thousands lump sum in one go have never done that themselves and are now silent. Most of the advice not to time the market is referring to the bull market, as in the bull the market, the market goes up more than it falls. so whenever you throw your money it will always go up in the future. It is different with the bear market as the market will go up and down like yoyo before sometimes falling again reaching a new 52-weeks low. The bear market could take months, years before turning into the bull market.

If the expert consensus (if not all) is we are in the bear market and they have been saying what strategy work better, also reflected from their action in the bear market and people still do not get it, that is the problem.

You do not need statistics to know that most people those who have done drip-feeding (DCA) have done better than those who throw lump-sum a few hundred thousand pound in the current market. Unless for person who had a crystal ball or a few people who were very lucky to catch the bottom by randomly throwing their lump-sum money. But considering the bottom were only a few days, that probability is very low. Never mind  the market could go lower this year considering the bear market is not over yet.

Everyone could easily see that +3.9% partly sitting in saving waiting allocation for DCA is higher than negative return say -15% from the market.

Here is an example which hopefully explains why I don't agree with your reasoning.

There are two people, one who invested in equities a while back and the other kept it in cash. However at this moment they have exactly the same amount which is £100k. We are in a bear market as their index has dropped by 20% recently. 

The first person, who is currently invested in equities is getting nervous and their mouse is hovering over the sell button.
The second person, after being advised on a forum to lump sum it all in, is hovering over the buy button.

What would you do if you were them? Are you suggesting that there should be different advice for these two people? Or if you don't think that the second person should lump sum it in then surely the first person should sell out. Then they could drip feed in together over the next year or so. If the first person should sell out, then surely everybody should sell out under the same conditions.

The history of how they got to this point isn't relevant - its what they do today

For reference I have previously lump summed a few hundred thousand pounds in around 10 minutes, which is the time it took to click the buttons. Although I didn't know, it happened to be during a downturn and it was a great bit of luck in hindsight, although that had no affect on my choice.

Well I do not give advice. That is just personal opinion

Sensible people will prefer to listen to what the smart money, what the proven billionaires investors, analysts, strategist are doing, not from random people on the internet. If you follow the investment channel most strategists (if not all) are against to fully invest put all of the money in stock market during the bear market.

This is what they have been saying :

https://seekingalpha.com/article/2619975-dca-vs-lump-sum-investing

https://www.capitalgroup.com/pcs/insights/articles/benefits-of-dollar-cost-averaging-spring-2020.html A simple approach can help limit the downside during a bear market

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/dollar cost averaging 2

https://www.investopedia.com/8-ways-to-survive-a-market-downturn-4773417 Smart Strategies for a Bear Market By The Investopedia Team May 30, 2022

https://www.capitalgroup.com/pcs/insights/articles/benefits of dollar cost averaging spring 2020.html A simple approach can help limit the downside during a bear market

https://www.fool.com/investing/stock market/basics/dollar cost averaging/

https://www.investors.com/etfs and funds/mutual funds/dollar cost averaging is good for a falling market/ Dollar Cost Averaging Good In A Falling Market

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/dollar-cost-averaging-is-good-for-a-falling-market/

Also this is one example of what proven billionaire investors  is doing

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/warren-buffett-is-sitting-on-a-200b-cash-pile-but-can-t-find-a-deal-20220228-p5a067.html Warren Buffett is sitting on a $200b cash pile but can’t find a deal By Josh Funk February 28, 2022

In the bear market the market fall more than it raises. Unless  you have a crystal ball so you could call the bottom, or you are among a few people who were very lucky to call the bottom (as the bottom is only a few days), But what about the people who threw lump-sum early 2022. People will get a better probability to get a better result by doing DCA. Some People who have lump sum of a few hundred thousands to throw in the market see DCA is timing the market.

And people could easily see that many of those who have done DCA have beaten the market considering part of the money are sitting in high interest saving account, RSA waiting allocation for drip-feeding (DCA). One RSA is paying 7%, reasonable number are paying 4.5%-5% majority are easy access. Reasonable number of one year or less than one year fix rate saving pay around 4%.

Everyone could easily see that 5% is bigger than -15% (say) is not it.

Certainty, people could do whatever they want with their own money. Similarly, people are free to assume that they know better, more knowledgeable than investment strategists, proven billionaire investors.

The majority of those quotes are by financial journalists who are paid to print words - not make investing decisions. The investor of any significance amongst that list is Warren Buffett but that article based on his letter is nothing to do with your point. Its based on the letter describing 2021 - a full blown bull market. Berkshire finds it difficult to invest money in general due to its size and certainly doesn't invest like the rest of us. 

Since nobody knows if the equity markets are going up or down at any given time, the only reasonable suggestion is to invest what you have, when you have it. Those who hold back or sell out when the going gets tough generally do worse than the market and those who stay invested.

As previously mentioned people are entitled to their own opinion.

People could easily see that +7%, +5%, +4.5% or even +4% in saving is bigger than the return from the stock market -15% (say). That is where part of the money are sitting waiting allocation for drip-feeding (DCA) in the stock market if they have lump-sum and do not want to throw a few hundred thousands in one go in the stock market. Also, generally, in the bear market the market fall more than it raises.People who can not see this might have the problem with comparing the number which is important in making decision in investment.

Professors in finance or experts in finance writing a book such as Benjamin Graham, Howard Mark, Peter Lynch, Ray Dalio,  Joel Greenblatt writing books about investing are getting paid for writing the books, so people should not be reading it, let alone spending money to buy those books ??

I personally and I believe many of sensible people would rather listen to analysts strategists, professors in finance in channel such as CNBC, Bloomberg, yahoo finance, CNN finance, reuters, WSJ rather than from random people on the internet. And, I wonder why these channels have so many viewers, readers just to watch, listen or read nonsense?? Well it might be.

Adyinvestment

NedS said:

If you have a strategy you favour, feel free to play along - you've seen the rules. Put up a notional £100K, pick a FTSE100 ETF, follow your strategy, post your trades and we will see how we've all faired at the end of the year - the numbers speak for themselves.

I would follow that 😀

Michael121

adindas said:

As previously mentioned people are entitled to their own opinion.

People could easily see that +7%, +5%, +4.5% or even +4% in saving is bigger than the return from the stock market -15% (say). That is where part of the money are sitting waiting allocation for drip-feeding (DCA) in the stock market if they have lump-sum and do not want to throw a few hundred thousands in one go in the stock market. Also, generally, in the bear market the market fall more than it raises.People who can not see this might have the problem with comparing the number which is important in making decision in investment.

I personally and I believe many of sensible people would rather listen to analysts strategist in CNBC, Bloomberg, yahoo finance, CNN finance, refuters, WSJ rather than random people in the internet. And, I wonder why these channels have so many fewer, readers just to watch, listen or read nonsense?? well it might be

I'm sure most of them was calling for spy 4500-5k 2022. 

NedS

Adyinvestment said:

NedS said:

If you have a strategy you favour, feel free to play along - you've seen the rules. Put up a notional £100K, pick a FTSE100 ETF, follow your strategy, post your trades and we will see how we've all faired at the end of the year - the numbers speak for themselves.

I would follow that 😀

OK, lets make it simple then, I will also track how a drip feeding / pound cost averaging strategy would have performed over the same period for comparison purposes.

I started the year with 17,000 CTY shares. The closing price on 30/12/2022 was 410.5p so we will assign a nominal cash value of £69,785.

We will make 13 regular purchases of around £5,368 in value to drip feed into the markets on the last day of each month, with our opening (retrospective) purchase at 30/12/2022. Both strategies start the year with the equivalent of 17,000 shares. The lump sum buy and hold will end the year with 17,000 shares. Lets see how my market timing strategy and a drip feeding strategy compare and who has the most shares at the end of the year (with any remaining cash converted to shares at the closing price at the end of the year).

Current position (Drip Feed PCA/DCA strategy):

30/12/2022 purchase 1300 shares at 410.5p (including 0.5% stamp duty and £11.95 trading fee (no £1 levy as less than £10k)

Total price = £5375.13

CTY shares held: 1300

Cash position: £64,409.87

My current position:

CTY shares held: 10,000

Cash position: £29,435.13

Must say, I think I favour the drip feeding position at this point, but that may change if I reduce my holding further next week :-D