I'm timing the market - who's in?

coastline

NedS said:

coastline said:

NedS said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

NedS said:

Linton said:

I am not sure how it affects this cunning wheeze but it is interesting to note that CTY has a deliberate strategy to keep the discount to NAV within tight bounds and reduce volatility, issuing shares when the price is too high and buying back when the price is too low. Apart from managing the share price this strategy provides existing investors with a bit extra return by selling  high and buying low.   All is explained in the Annual Report.

I wonder what affect this has on chartist's predictions?

Interesting point, but little effect I suspect as the net result is that the trust SP performs close to NAV, and NAV performs close to it's constituent market (e.g, FTSE100) so in every practicable sense we are tracking/trading the FTSE100, which just like CTY broadly trades sideways in a window and pays a hefty dividend.

I agree CTY behaves like a closet tracker and there's very little between the two chart patterns over many years. Volatility creates opportunities to trade that's why I stick to my system . There's no predictions and no targets just trying to ride the waves. It's not day trading where you can easily get wiped out. Again not the best illustration below but those indicators at the extremes can produce respectable gains . In just 2 years there's dozens . Always another chance coming along. 

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Posted this one before with the SP500 . SP500 stochastic is low but the FTSE is high. ?? I wonder ? US tend to run the show.

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

My comments at the bottom of the post about the SP500 and the stochastic indicator sitting right on the oversold or buy alert have played out this week. FTSE or CTY ? have continued to hold up a I suggested , US up generally the rest up.
Here's last Thursday when I posted.

spdaily5 jan5.png (640×640) (googleusercontent.com)

Here we are today with the stochastic sitting bang on the overbought zone . After a rally what next ? Sit tight above the 10 day moving average in red on the chart.

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

FTSE/CTY still above the 10 day moving average . HOLD.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

As much as I like chart analysis, the bit I can never quite reconcile is the lag. For example, by the time price has fallen below the 10 day moving average, or MACD/STO indicators turn, it's already dropped a chunk and I'm kicking myself because my gut told me it was toppy last week. Of course sometimes my gut is wrong and it takes another step up. But I take solace still holding 10,000 shares given your HOLD recommendation

Lets try a challenge - you track a notional £100k in FTSE/CTY using your method and we see where we each end up at the end of the year?

I agree there's different approaches to this sometimes I pull the trigger early. Not the best chart indicators below and I suggested use the IC website but you get the picture. Lower indicators were overbought by November but stayed overbought. Could have sold but way too short. This is where a stop loss or 10 day moving average comes in. December before the 10 day turned down and 5% more in the bag. Basically mechanical system and a bit of gut feel. Entry points I tend to buy when system is oversold then hold using the 10 day average as the guide. Nothings perfect otherwise we'd all do it but there's basically buying and selling points many times every year. Always a chance to make a short term gain. At the end of the day the global MSCI World Index has averaged just over 10% since launch to me that's my benchmark.

Yes, I used to run a points-based system where I would assign a score to each indicator (price above SMA, black above red on MCAD, STO oversold etc), and then use the weighted total score normalised to a percentage to set my risk exposure. So if my system scored the markets at 7/10, I'd adjust allocation to 70% risk on for whatever index I was scoring and 30% cash. So this was a more granular approach than simply all in or all out, and allowed allocations to be adjusted based on risk as measured by chart analysis.

coastline said:

Yes I'll give it a go with the FTSE notional £100K I've done it before and the challenge came from a poster on here . Never replied to my system as I posted the results. Made money in a falling market it doesn't have to be going up just need the waves and a bit of volatility. 1350 points on the FTSE and the index itself only up 200.

Great. What's your opening position then? Can I suggest you pick an ETF to track the index and add notional costs of £12.95 per trade so we are comparing like for like (accepting I also have 0.5% stamp duty on purchases) and we will compare percentage gains at the end of year.

Nice to hear you've experimented with the charts and indicators as not many believe they're of any use. I've used the system for 20 years and much better results than buy and hold. Doubt many believe me but that's up to them. Ridiculed on here a few times but no thanks when I post the results. Never mind that's the way it goes . Anyway I'll use the etf ISF.L the ftse tracker . Costs me £6 but we'll go with £12.95. More than likely it'll be my own real time dealing as ISF.L is always part of my funds. Tax wrapper for everything ISA or SIPP . I'll post in a similar list as the original link. ISF.L is still hold at the moment so my first post will be a sell for £100K could well be this week ? At the end of the day it's not day trading where it can all go wrong that's why it doesn't bother me where the markets stand. Good luck.

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, UK:ISF Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:ISF, iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Set 10 day moving average. Lower indicators slow stochastic and Williams%R . In rally mode it'll be above the 10 MA with that bit of gut feel as well as the US markets.

ISF.L | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF GBP (Dist) summary price and performance data – Investors Chronicle

NedS

coastline said:

NedS said:

coastline said:

NedS said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

NedS said:

Linton said:

I am not sure how it affects this cunning wheeze but it is interesting to note that CTY has a deliberate strategy to keep the discount to NAV within tight bounds and reduce volatility, issuing shares when the price is too high and buying back when the price is too low. Apart from managing the share price this strategy provides existing investors with a bit extra return by selling  high and buying low.   All is explained in the Annual Report.

I wonder what affect this has on chartist's predictions?

Interesting point, but little effect I suspect as the net result is that the trust SP performs close to NAV, and NAV performs close to it's constituent market (e.g, FTSE100) so in every practicable sense we are tracking/trading the FTSE100, which just like CTY broadly trades sideways in a window and pays a hefty dividend.

I agree CTY behaves like a closet tracker and there's very little between the two chart patterns over many years. Volatility creates opportunities to trade that's why I stick to my system . There's no predictions and no targets just trying to ride the waves. It's not day trading where you can easily get wiped out. Again not the best illustration below but those indicators at the extremes can produce respectable gains . In just 2 years there's dozens . Always another chance coming along. 

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Posted this one before with the SP500 . SP500 stochastic is low but the FTSE is high. ?? I wonder ? US tend to run the show.

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

My comments at the bottom of the post about the SP500 and the stochastic indicator sitting right on the oversold or buy alert have played out this week. FTSE or CTY ? have continued to hold up a I suggested , US up generally the rest up.
Here's last Thursday when I posted.

spdaily5 jan5.png (640×640) (googleusercontent.com)

Here we are today with the stochastic sitting bang on the overbought zone . After a rally what next ? Sit tight above the 10 day moving average in red on the chart.

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

FTSE/CTY still above the 10 day moving average . HOLD.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

As much as I like chart analysis, the bit I can never quite reconcile is the lag. For example, by the time price has fallen below the 10 day moving average, or MACD/STO indicators turn, it's already dropped a chunk and I'm kicking myself because my gut told me it was toppy last week. Of course sometimes my gut is wrong and it takes another step up. But I take solace still holding 10,000 shares given your HOLD recommendation

Lets try a challenge - you track a notional £100k in FTSE/CTY using your method and we see where we each end up at the end of the year?

I agree there's different approaches to this sometimes I pull the trigger early. Not the best chart indicators below and I suggested use the IC website but you get the picture. Lower indicators were overbought by November but stayed overbought. Could have sold but way too short. This is where a stop loss or 10 day moving average comes in. December before the 10 day turned down and 5% more in the bag. Basically mechanical system and a bit of gut feel. Entry points I tend to buy when system is oversold then hold using the 10 day average as the guide. Nothings perfect otherwise we'd all do it but there's basically buying and selling points many times every year. Always a chance to make a short term gain. At the end of the day the global MSCI World Index has averaged just over 10% since launch to me that's my benchmark.

Yes, I used to run a points-based system where I would assign a score to each indicator (price above SMA, black above red on MCAD, STO oversold etc), and then use the weighted total score normalised to a percentage to set my risk exposure. So if my system scored the markets at 7/10, I'd adjust allocation to 70% risk on for whatever index I was scoring and 30% cash. So this was a more granular approach than simply all in or all out, and allowed allocations to be adjusted based on risk as measured by chart analysis.

coastline said:

Yes I'll give it a go with the FTSE notional £100K I've done it before and the challenge came from a poster on here . Never replied to my system as I posted the results. Made money in a falling market it doesn't have to be going up just need the waves and a bit of volatility. 1350 points on the FTSE and the index itself only up 200.

Great. What's your opening position then? Can I suggest you pick an ETF to track the index and add notional costs of £12.95 per trade so we are comparing like for like (accepting I also have 0.5% stamp duty on purchases) and we will compare percentage gains at the end of year.

Nice to hear you've experimented with the charts and indicators as not many believe they're of any use. I've used the system for 20 years and much better results than buy and hold. Doubt many believe me but that's up to them. Ridiculed on here a few times but no thanks when I post the results. Never mind that's the way it goes .

Yes, I get that. We don't all need to agree - I am currently investing for income, which was questioned when I posted here by those advocating a total return approach, most of whom are now nursing 10-12% losses in 2022 where I booked a 6.76% gain on the year.

I used to follow the following video blog and picked up most of my limited chart analysis knowledge from that.

https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/

I stopped doing it after a while as firstly I found it difficult to find the time to monitor charts weekly, collect and analyse all the data and update my model to tell me what weekly adjustments I should make to my allocations. Secondly, I found that when sharp corrections occurred, my model did not react fast enough or I was being whip-sawed in and out of the market. At the time I was using index tracker funds or other funds (rather than ITs or ETFs) to eliminate regular trading costs as I was phasing in and out on a weekly basis (so may reasonably expect to make 50 trades a year), whereas now I am generally buy and hold, but will jump in and out maybe 3-4 times per year if opportunities present themselves, the objective simply being to improve on the returns of the original investment.

The charting model approach above was more about risk management, changing allocations according to perceived market risk as assessed by the model, whereas this current endeavour is more about simply adding value to an already held investment.

coastline

I've watched many of the CC videos over the years but they tend to repeat and are way too long. The idea of looking to the future becomes clear without much of their analysis simply because in general markets recover . Usually are higher after 1- 3 years etc as much of the data shows. Looks like they use a series of moving averages to add or reduce positions eg 50.100. 200 etc. Hardly visit the site now as tend to look at updates with charts and overlays showing inflation, rates, valuations etc. Found this a while ago which updates every few days. Not saying its the best but the detailed links in their analysis are useful. It gives me a much better understanding of the moving picture. Who would have thought of rate rises at such pace this year ?

This Occurred 3 Times Since 1916: It Signaled Extreme SP500 Volatility In the Years That Followed. - YouTube

A technical summary on the FTSE 100 . Timeframe can be adjusted maybe daily is best for needs ?

FTSE 100 Technical Analysis - Investing.com UK

Only points away ? What's next ?

Fmh-86NX0AIGawD (900×455) (twimg.com)

Other data normally comes from twitter feeds again with their links to history. Yes buy and hold for 30 years and you should be in the money but it's still nice to look at history. I could never read books on the stuff. One link leads to another on twitter again you can be on all day. Here's a few anyway.

Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) / Twitter

Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) / Twitter

Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) / Twitter

Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) / Twitter

coastline

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today .Units sold 13,065 . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE    BUY/SELL   ISF.L    UNITS       VALUE           
18 JAN       SELL      765.40  13065     £99,987.05

adindas

Deleted_User said:

Not so much the market but interest rates.

I've a feeling they haven't got much more to go this year before they start coming down in Q3.

So I horsed 600k into a Barclays 1 year Savings Bond this morning at 3.9%.

£23,400 gross without having to worry too much.

I use my SIPP for day trading but best not talk about that in case the missus reads this ...

You have beaten the market by timing the market considering you get a guaranteed return of 3.9% while the return of the stock is currently negative in the current bear market. But in the long run, it might not be, as the history has shown that the return from the stock market will beat the return from saving and/or treasury bonds. Also because 3.9% is still lower than the current inflationary rate.

Sometimes, sensibly timing the market is not bad. That is what most of analysts, billionaires investors have been doing. Warren Buffet himself along with other billionaires investors do that. They have been piling up cash and not fully invest since last years waiting for a better deal as they know what the bear market is.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/warren-buffett-is-sitting-on-a-200b-cash-pile-but-can-t-find-a-deal-20220228-p5a067.html Warren Buffett is sitting on a $200b cash pile but can’t find a deal By Josh Funk February 28, 2022

In year 2022 there are the same group of people, very vocal who suggested other people that if you have that lump sum of £600k threw it all into the stock market, as doing drip feeding (e.g DCA) it will mean you are timing the market. There are already a lot of news such as high inflation, war in Ukraine, supply chain problem, energy shortages, food shortages and most analysts (if not all) have been saying we are in the bear market.

Surprisingly those who were suggesting other people to throw  a few hundred thousands lump sum in one go have never done that themselves and are now silent. Most of the advice not to time the market is referring to the bull market, as in the bull the market, the market goes up more than it falls. so whenever you throw your money it will always go up in the future. It is different with the bear market as the market will go up and down like yoyo before sometimes falling again reaching a new 52-weeks low. The bear market could take months, years before turning into the bull market.

If the expert consensus (if not all) is we are in the bear market and they have been saying what strategy work better, also reflected from their action in the bear market and people still do not get it, that is the problem.

You do not need statistics to know that most people those who have done drip-feeding (DCA) have done better than those who throw lump-sum a few hundred thousand pound in the current market. Unless for person who had a crystal ball or a few people who were very lucky to catch the bottom by randomly throwing their lump-sum money. But considering the bottom were only a few days, that probability is very low. Never mind  the market could go lower this year considering the bear market is not over yet.

Everyone could easily see that +3.9% partly sitting in saving waiting allocation for DCA is higher than negative return say -15% from the market.

billy2shots

Remember though, lump-sum Vs DCA is not just comparable on the way down, where the gap really widens is on the way up. 

A bear market snapping and rebounding quickly can leave a lot of people holding cash with their pants down. 
A rebound of 20-25% over the year can and has left a lot of people holding cash waiting for the dip to get back in, but the dip may not come to beat the lump-sum. 

NedS

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE     BUY/SELL     ISF PRICE         VALUE           
18 JAN        SELL            765.40         £99,987.05

Nice.

I'm still holding 10,000 shares out of my original 17,000 position. I missed the opportunity to offload the rest at the end of last week - my own fault, I was not around to make the trade, and set the sell order a little too high (greedy for that last half a percent), and missed an opportunity to bag 426p

If prices take a second look at ~425p I'll sell the remaining, otherwise I'm a hold and wait to capture any short term fall from the partial sale.

Lets see where prices take us from here.

Audaxer

NedS said:

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE     BUY/SELL     ISF PRICE         VALUE           
18 JAN        SELL            765.40         £99,987.05

Nice.

I'm still holding 10,000 shares out of my original 17,000 position. I missed the opportunity to offload the rest at the end of last week - my own fault, I was not around to make the trade, and set the sell order a little too high (greedy for that last half a percent), and missed an opportunity to bag 426p

If prices take a second look at ~425p I'll sell the remaining, otherwise I'm a hold and wait to capture any short term fall from the partial sale.

Lets see where prices take us from here.

Interested to know what price you paid for the 10,000 shares you are planning to sell if they get back up to 425p?

NedS

Audaxer said:

NedS said:

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE     BUY/SELL     ISF PRICE         VALUE           
18 JAN        SELL            765.40         £99,987.05

Nice.

I'm still holding 10,000 shares out of my original 17,000 position. I missed the opportunity to offload the rest at the end of last week - my own fault, I was not around to make the trade, and set the sell order a little too high (greedy for that last half a percent), and missed an opportunity to bag 426p

If prices take a second look at ~425p I'll sell the remaining, otherwise I'm a hold and wait to capture any short term fall from the partial sale.

Lets see where prices take us from here.

Interested to know what price you paid for the 10,000 shares you are planning to sell if they get back up to 425p?

My average purchase price for the original 17,000 holding was 349p

coastline

NedS said:

coastline said:

Sold ISF.L at 765.40p today . Notional 100K is now £99,987.05p with the £12.95 fee.

 DATE     BUY/SELL     ISF PRICE         VALUE           
18 JAN        SELL            765.40         £99,987.05

Nice.

I'm still holding 10,000 shares out of my original 17,000 position. I missed the opportunity to offload the rest at the end of last week - my own fault, I was not around to make the trade, and set the sell order a little too high (greedy for that last half a percent), and missed an opportunity to bag 426p

If prices take a second look at ~425p I'll sell the remaining, otherwise I'm a hold and wait to capture any short term fall from the partial sale.

Lets see where prices take us from here.

As I posted 12th JAN it pays to watch the US markets and my chosen indicators have swiftly moved from oversold to overbought. Alert time. Yesterday 18th JAN poor economic data appeared to upset the US market and gathered pace during UK hours. Nobody knows for sure what triggers rapid moves but sometimes it just needs a catalyst . UK had held up all last week with the helping hand from the US showing you can remain overbought for a good while. That's where I use the stop loss or 10 day moving average as a guide. We ended up with a big red candle on the SP500 so I pulled the trigger on my ISF.L late yesterday. Could have it all wrong but we go again when it's oversold.

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

ISF.L regardless of my early exit/gut feel is now through the stop loss / moving average. Indicators all turned down yesterday.

iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF, UK:ISF Advanced Chart - (LON) UK:ISF, iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

Watched this yesterday it's an hour long but it's a decent summary with many charts about the markets, bonds, rates and economy. Presenter favours bonds this year and cautious about US stocks .If anybody is struggling to understand the many market moves it's worth a watch. I'm learning all the time.  Video gets going 4 minutes in.

Just Markets Webcast: "What's Going On?" 1-10-23 - YouTube