I'm timing the market - who's in?

Nebulous2

This is a bit rich and clever for me - I'm already sort of retired, so reluctant to play with my future to that extent. 

However -are you using limit orders? 

I've got £15k in a SIPP, which I've built up from my part-time earnings since retiring. Its building at £500 a month. I left it in cash until June, when I dipped a toe in the water by buying some VWRP at around £76.50. As luck would have it, I bought these first ones on more or less the low for the year. They went up and I set a target of £80 to buy more. At some point I got fed-up waiting for them to drop and bought some at over that, but then I got some more at under it. I'm currently £380 up with an average price under £80 and less than £1k in cash left. 

What I've been doing, if they are close to my target, is setting a limit order. So they'll be at £80.50 and I'll ask to buy £3k at 79.90 first thing in the morning. I've set a limit 8-10 times and only been successful 3 times.  The limit with Fidelity expires at the end of the day, but it means I can gain from any mid-day fluctuations, such as a rise in the £. On one occasion my order was filled at less than any price I saw showing for the day. 

Apologies if I'm teaching my granny to suck eggs, but you could set a limit regularly, say to sell 2000 shares at 426, and leave the market to perform, or not....  

NedS

Yes, I do use limit orders - mostly for when I'm working or not otherwise able to sit there and watch the price all day. My first trade was filled on a sell limit order I set at 420.05p and was fulfilled at 420.6868p so I managed to make an extra 0.15% on that one which all helps towards covering fees (that seems to happen a lot when setting the price just above a whole number). Looks like I captured the highest price on the day so happy with that, although today's current live price just momentarily beat it before falling back again.

[Deleted User]

Not so much the market but interest rates.

I've a feeling they haven't got much more to go this year before they start coming down in Q3.

So I horsed 600k into a Barclays 1 year Savings Bond this morning at 3.9%.

£23,400 gross without having to worry too much.

I use my SIPP for day trading but best not talk about that in case the missus reads this ...

adindas

Deleted_User said:

Not so much the market but interest rates.

I've a feeling they haven't got much more to go this year before they start coming down in Q3.

So I horsed 600k into a Barclays 1 year Savings Bond this morning at 3.9%.

£23,400 gross without having to worry too much.

I use my SIPP for day trading but best not talk about that in case the missus reads this ...

And what will happen if inflation is coming down, the FED, BOE pivoting, the War in Ukraine is over, Global Supply Chain get better, Chip Shortages is overcomed?

Just look at what happen after March 2020.

[Deleted User]

adindas said:

Deleted_User said:

Not so much the market but interest rates.

I've a feeling they haven't got much more to go this year before they start coming down in Q3.

So I horsed 600k into a Barclays 1 year Savings Bond this morning at 3.9%.

£23,400 gross without having to worry too much.

I use my SIPP for day trading but best not talk about that in case the missus reads this ...

And what will happen if inflation is coming down, the FED, BOE pivoting, the War in Ukraine is over, Global Supply Chain get better, Chip Shortages is overcomed?

Just look at what happen after March 2020.

Who knows ?

I'm happy with 3.9% for a year.

All you can do is look for a safe haven with a guaranteed rate for 12 months and fingers crossed. It's my drinking vouchers and holidays sorted for the year.

Ciprico

One of the main attractions  of col is the dividends

Have you factored this in.... 

adindas

Ciprico said:

One of the main attractions  of col is the dividends

Have you factored this in.... 

Barclay (BARC)  is currently paying Dividend 3.72%. In the last three month the share price has gone up 18.86%. No risk no Reward

NedS

Ciprico said:

One of the main attractions  of col is the dividends

Have you factored this in.... 

All else being equal, the share price generally falls by the amount of the dividend on the date it goes ex-dividend, so the market takes care of it for me. If I sell some shares with a view to buying back at a lower price, and miss a dividend (5p per quarter), the share price will drop 5p on the ex-dividend date allowing me to buy back 5p cheaper offsetting the lost dividend payment. But yes, I have to factor in when considering any capital gains that I may make, some of that gain may be at the expense of lost dividend.

MK62

NedS said:

Ciprico said:

One of the main attractions  of col is the dividends

Have you factored this in.... 

All else being equal, the share price generally falls by the amount of the dividend on the date it goes ex-dividend, so the market takes care of it for me. If I sell some shares with a view to buying back at a lower price, and miss a dividend (5p per quarter), the share price will drop 5p on the ex-dividend date allowing me to buy back 5p cheaper offsetting the lost dividend payment. But yes, I have to factor in when considering any capital gains that I may make, some of that gain may be at the expense of lost dividend.

.....but now your buy back timing is constrained by the ex-dividend date.....probably not ideal when exercising your market timing plan.
TBH, I'm not sure CTY is that good a choice for this kind of strategy......it might pay off, but that juicy dividend, and it's psycholgical attraction, might muddy the waters on the timing........anyway, good luck and please keep the thread updated either way....🙂

Ciprico

..paying .5% stamp duty is an unnecessary drag which could be avoided by using an ETF or oeic.

Also you're taking a currency risk with UK based fund

HMWO has nice regular peaks and troughs and would avoid stamp duty... 

Are you going to buy sell purely on price or news events too... 

For example when peace is declared in Ukraine or US and China stop squabbling there should be major uplifts you wouldn't want to miss

Is china's reduced covid policy good or bad...  If it works and factories go to full pruduction or it fails and the country falls apart
could have big and sudden impact....

Good luck... Its an interesting and tempting experiment....