Santander 2.75% Account

housebuyer143

callum9999 said:

housebuyer143 said:

Millyonare said:

The Bank of England (BoE) is one of the worst-managed financial institutions in the entire world. Misread inflation (by miles) in 2021, cut rates to expectation in the face of soaring inflation in 2022, under-regulated pensions to the brink of collapse, caused a historic unprecedented run on the pound, and has a bizarre urge to talk down the UK economy every time it speaks. One calamity after another. Predicting what the BoE does with rates is anyone's guess.

This guess is that rates will rise +1.00% in Nov 2022.

Let's see.

This! The day the BoE came out and said "we are going into a recession", with no proof, only for the economy to be shown to had grown in the proceeding quarter 🤷‍♀️ 
It is laughable really, but then these guys are controlling the UK interest rate, so.....

When did they do that? The only stories I saw were them predicting an upcoming recession (Q4 this year).

I don't even know what to say to the implication that if you have growth one quarter then you can't have a recession in the next...

A recession is defined by two quarters of negative growth. So you can be wrong saying we are going into a recession or we are in one, when this has not happened.  BoE seemed a bit presumptuous at the time.

EthicsGradient

housebuyer143 said:

callum9999 said:

housebuyer143 said:

Millyonare said:

The Bank of England (BoE) is one of the worst-managed financial institutions in the entire world. Misread inflation (by miles) in 2021, cut rates to expectation in the face of soaring inflation in 2022, under-regulated pensions to the brink of collapse, caused a historic unprecedented run on the pound, and has a bizarre urge to talk down the UK economy every time it speaks. One calamity after another. Predicting what the BoE does with rates is anyone's guess.

This guess is that rates will rise +1.00% in Nov 2022.

Let's see.

This! The day the BoE came out and said "we are going into a recession", with no proof, only for the economy to be shown to had grown in the proceeding quarter 🤷‍♀️ 
It is laughable really, but then these guys are controlling the UK interest rate, so.....

When did they do that? The only stories I saw were them predicting an upcoming recession (Q4 this year).

I don't even know what to say to the implication that if you have growth one quarter then you can't have a recession in the next...

A recession is defined by two quarters of negative growth. So you can be wrong saying we are going into a recession or we are in one, when this has not happened.  BoE seemed a bit presumptuous at the time.

If you think all predictions are "presumptuous", in that they are about the future, well, yes. What the BoE said, in August, was that they predicted GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3 2022 (ie July, August and September - this figure has not yet been released), and then to decline by nearly 1% in Q4 2023. They also expected it to decline in Q1 2023, and that would be the recession starting in Q4 2022 that they predicted.

The latest GDP news was that it was preliminarily "estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in August 2022, after growth of 0.1% in July 2022 (revised down from a growth of 0.2% in our previous publication)". So if anything, it looks like the recession may be arriving earlier than predicted - 

andyhicks88

tiger70 said:

I got 1 of 2 letters in the post this morning, just waiting for the other one now so I can log into my new account .

Was it letter 1 or 2?

callum9999

housebuyer143 said:

callum9999 said:

housebuyer143 said:

Millyonare said:

The Bank of England (BoE) is one of the worst-managed financial institutions in the entire world. Misread inflation (by miles) in 2021, cut rates to expectation in the face of soaring inflation in 2022, under-regulated pensions to the brink of collapse, caused a historic unprecedented run on the pound, and has a bizarre urge to talk down the UK economy every time it speaks. One calamity after another. Predicting what the BoE does with rates is anyone's guess.

This guess is that rates will rise +1.00% in Nov 2022.

Let's see.

This! The day the BoE came out and said "we are going into a recession", with no proof, only for the economy to be shown to had grown in the proceeding quarter 🤷‍♀️ 
It is laughable really, but then these guys are controlling the UK interest rate, so.....

When did they do that? The only stories I saw were them predicting an upcoming recession (Q4 this year).

I don't even know what to say to the implication that if you have growth one quarter then you can't have a recession in the next...

A recession is defined by two quarters of negative growth. So you can be wrong saying we are going into a recession or we are in one, when this has not happened.  BoE seemed a bit presumptuous at the time.

But they didn't say we were in one, they said we're moving towards one...

Would I be correct in assuming you don't remember when they said and how they said it? It reads much more like someone with a vendetta than actual facts to me, but I don't follow the BoE to such a degree that I can assuredly say that - unless you can't back up what you've said?

tiger70

andyhicks88 said:

tiger70 said:

I got 1 of 2 letters in the post this morning, just waiting for the other one now so I can log into my new account .

Was it letter 1 or 2?

It was letter 1

housebuyer143

callum9999 said:

housebuyer143 said:

callum9999 said:

housebuyer143 said:

Millyonare said:

The Bank of England (BoE) is one of the worst-managed financial institutions in the entire world. Misread inflation (by miles) in 2021, cut rates to expectation in the face of soaring inflation in 2022, under-regulated pensions to the brink of collapse, caused a historic unprecedented run on the pound, and has a bizarre urge to talk down the UK economy every time it speaks. One calamity after another. Predicting what the BoE does with rates is anyone's guess.

This guess is that rates will rise +1.00% in Nov 2022.

Let's see.

This! The day the BoE came out and said "we are going into a recession", with no proof, only for the economy to be shown to had grown in the proceeding quarter 🤷‍♀️ 
It is laughable really, but then these guys are controlling the UK interest rate, so.....

When did they do that? The only stories I saw were them predicting an upcoming recession (Q4 this year).

I don't even know what to say to the implication that if you have growth one quarter then you can't have a recession in the next...

A recession is defined by two quarters of negative growth. So you can be wrong saying we are going into a recession or we are in one, when this has not happened.  BoE seemed a bit presumptuous at the time.

But they didn't say we were in one, they said we're moving towards one...

Would I be correct in assuming you don't remember when they said and how they said it? It reads much more like someone with a vendetta than actual facts to me, but I don't follow the BoE to such a degree that I can assuredly say that - unless you can't back up what you've said?

I could have misheard. I just remember being very shocked by what they said. I also don't follow Boe so closely I can categorically say I am right. 😅

changearound1

2022 Q2 GDP was initially estimated to be a 0.1% contraction which together with the widely anticipated Q3 contraction would make a recession.

However, the most recent estimate for Q2 is growth of 0.2% which, if correct, means that no matter what happens in Q3, it won't technically be a recession.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2022

To be fair to BoE, I think it is ONS who have potentially underestimated Q2 GDP.

EthicsGradient

changearound1 said:

2022 Q2 GDP was initially estimated to be a 0.1% contraction which together with the widely anticipated Q3 contraction would make a recession.

However, the most recent estimate for Q2 is growth of 0.2% which, if correct, means that no matter what happens in Q3, it won't technically be a recession.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/apriltojune2022

To be fair to BoE, I think it is ONS who have potentially underestimated Q2 GDP.

But when the 0.1% Q2 contraction was announced, the BoE predicted that rebound from that would give Q3 growth of 0.4%: Aug 4th:

 Following a 0.8% quarterly increase in GDP in 2022 Q1, Bank staff now expected GDP to have fallen by 0.2% in Q2 as a whole, weaker than the 0.1% growth expected in the May Monetary Policy Report.
...
Overall, Bank staff now expected GDP to increase by 0.4% in 2022 Q3, slightly weaker than had been incorporated in the May Report. With headline growth likely to be boosted by the unwind of the effect of the Platinum Jubilee, underlying growth was expected to slow further but to remain positive.

https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/bank-of-england-bank-rate-increased-to-175-august-2022-monetary-policy-su/

So they first thought a combined growth of 0.2% for Q2/Q3 - not a recession then. When the Q2 figures from ONS were revised to +0.5%, they lowered the Q3 prediction to 0.2%. They didn't predict any recession involving Q2. What they said on Aug 4th was "the United Kingdom is now projected to enter recession from the fourth quarter of this year."

changearound1

In the minutes of the BoE MPC September meeting they predict GDP for Q3 to fall by 0.1% which together with the then accepted figure of -0.1% for Q2 would make a recession.

Recession can be a bit of a clickbait term. Two consecutive quarterly contractions of 0.1% is classed as a recession whereas a hypothetical 50% contraction in Q2 preceded and succeded by growth of 0.1% in Q1 and Q3 is not.

andyhicks88

Santander 2.75% Easy Access Savings Account.