Energy Price Guarantee (announced 8 Sep): initial reaction & questions

Chrysalis

QrizB said:

Chrysalis said:

Qyburn said:

Regarding the special EV tariffs, are these subsidised by government, or are they loss making for the suppliers?

My opinion is they subsidised but I have nothing to verify that opinion, the agile tariff which follows wholesale costs hourly has night time rates nowhere near octopus go.

Octopus state that they make a loss on their Go and Go Faster EV tariffs.

So they subsidised then by Octopus.

That does make the question valid of course what makes those customers get special treatment.  Of which the answer is Octopus can choose to subsidise whatever tariffs they want.

If there is a curiosity how does a energy company with such slim margins who claims to make an overall loss able to subsidise these tariffs, doing some digging into Octopus they are not just a normal supplier, they own their own renewables infrastructure (not under the Octopus energy branded company of course) and make a profit on their software services division.

https://www.4coffshore.com/news/octopus-renewables-increases-ownership-of-lincs-wind-farm-nid26329.html

https://octopusrenewablesinfrastructure.com/

These renewables are price linked to gas right?

[Deleted User]

Chrysalis said:

QrizB said:

Chrysalis said:

Qyburn said:

Regarding the special EV tariffs, are these subsidised by government, or are they loss making for the suppliers?

My opinion is they subsidised but I have nothing to verify that opinion, the agile tariff which follows wholesale costs hourly has night time rates nowhere near octopus go.

Octopus state that they make a loss on their Go and Go Faster EV tariffs.

So they subsidised then by Octopus.

That does make the question valid of course what makes those customers get special treatment.  Of which the answer is Octopus can choose to subsidise whatever tariffs they want.

If there is a curiosity how does a energy company with such slim margins who claims to make an overall loss able to subsidise these tariffs, doing some digging into Octopus they are not just a normal supplier, they own their own renewables infrastructure (not under the Octopus energy branded company of course) and make a profit on their software services division.

https://www.4coffshore.com/news/octopus-renewables-increases-ownership-of-lincs-wind-farm-nid26329.html

https://octopusrenewablesinfrastructure.com/

These renewables are price linked to gas right?

The Lincs one, yeah, that's on ROCs so it'll be making a tidy profit at the moment.

The stuff in Europe and Australia?  Probably the European ones, there's not a lot of CfD-type things over there.  The Australian market is far more coal-dominated, so not a big link there.

Their overall portfolio is pitiful though, they list less than 600MW of which only half is actually operational.

HayleyC80

Can someone please help me?  
Currently on a standard variable tariff with British Gas (they say they don't have any cheaper deals for me ATM).  Have tried the other websites (moneysupermarket uSwitch) and they have nothing either.
I am currently in credit by £888, paying £377 per month, have drastically reduced my usage overall, and yet I am being told that I will be nearly £800 in debit at the 'end of my plan'.  
1 - I don't have a plan as I am not locked in to a tariff
2 - I have a smart meter so they have regular readings of my usage, so where is the estimate coming from?
3 - what else can I do to reduce the amount they 'think' I am going to owe them?
4 - can I challenge them on the amount they project I will owe?

[Deleted User]

HayleyC80 said:

Can someone please help me?  
Currently on a standard variable tariff with British Gas (they say they don't have any cheaper deals for me ATM).  Have tried the other websites (moneysupermarket uSwitch) and they have nothing either.
I am currently in credit by £888, paying £377 per month, have drastically reduced my usage overall, and yet I am being told that I will be nearly £800 in debit at the 'end of my plan'.  
1 - I don't have a plan as I am not locked in to a tariff
2 - I have a smart meter so they have regular readings of my usage, so where is the estimate coming from?
3 - what else can I do to reduce the amount they 'think' I am going to owe them?
4 - can I challenge them on the amount they project I will owe?

Nobody has a cheaper deal than the SVT at the moment, particularly with the new cap.

You do have 'a plan', it's the twelve-month annual cycle through cheaper summer and more expensive winter months.

How much do they estimate your annual usage to be, and how much do you think it is (and why)?  Having a smart meter doesn't mean that they have accurate numbers for what you are going to use in the future, that can only ever be an estimate.

You can always ask them to reduce the DD (or not put it up) but you'll need some actual numbers to back it up, not just a general thought that "it seems a lot".

wrf12345

If you are on SVT then go on to variable direct debit and get them to refund you the excess credit... chat takes 45-60 minutes before someone turns up and just refuse to back down until they change it. If the smart meter is actually connected and sending readings properly then it should be hassle free. If you do manual readings and miss one then they will make something up and hoover up a chunk of money from your bank account. You will also get the £67 a month credit for six months but that arrives after they take the DD out of your account (according to the email they sent me).

If you can't get SVT then just use the last couple of months plus the extra £67 to justify the decrease in DD and declare that their estimate is ridiculous. Do not back down, the cs rep will eventually refer it to her manager.

HayleyC80

[Deleted User] said:

HayleyC80 said:

Can someone please help me?  
Currently on a standard variable tariff with British Gas (they say they don't have any cheaper deals for me ATM).  Have tried the other websites (moneysupermarket uSwitch) and they have nothing either.
I am currently in credit by £888, paying £377 per month, have drastically reduced my usage overall, and yet I am being told that I will be nearly £800 in debit at the 'end of my plan'.  
1 - I don't have a plan as I am not locked in to a tariff
2 - I have a smart meter so they have regular readings of my usage, so where is the estimate coming from?
3 - what else can I do to reduce the amount they 'think' I am going to owe them?
4 - can I challenge them on the amount they project I will owe?

Nobody has a cheaper deal than the SVT at the moment, particularly with the new cap.

You do have 'a plan', it's the twelve-month annual cycle through cheaper summer and more expensive winter months.

How much do they estimate your annual usage to be, and how much do you think it is (and why)?  Having a smart meter doesn't mean that they have accurate numbers for what you are going to use in the future, that can only ever be an estimate.

You can always ask them to reduce the DD (or not put it up) but you'll need some actual numbers to back it up, not just a general thought that "it seems a lot".

Thanks for that.  So by the sounds of it, unless I can sit down and physically calculate myself as to what I think I will use, I have no recourse?  
I am guessing that when they 'review' my direct debit, they will take into account any credit balance that I have at that point in time, and then adjust for that 'finger in the wind' estimate for what I may use?  If the estimates are based on last year's usage, I would have been using more electricity as I had building work being done on my house, so lots of power tools being used! 
Am I the only one thinking that maybe some of this price / direct debit hiking is to help ensure that the energy company bottom line / profit figures are looking alot better than what they could be?
Surely also if the wholesale gas prices have come down, that should be taken into account also.  Coupled with the fact that energy 'supplies' are secured in price using the futures market, the money which is being made now is pure profit as it has already been bought and paid for!  
Apologies if I am looking at this very simplistically but I am growing rather fed up of being asked to pay more and more, there is nowhere offering any choice to reduce my outgoings and if I don't pay I will end up with a poor credit file score.  If I am getting more when being asked to pay more, I don't think I would mind as much - but I am not getting any more than I have already had!

[Deleted User]

HayleyC80 said:

[Deleted User] said:

HayleyC80 said:

Can someone please help me?  
Currently on a standard variable tariff with British Gas (they say they don't have any cheaper deals for me ATM).  Have tried the other websites (moneysupermarket uSwitch) and they have nothing either.
I am currently in credit by £888, paying £377 per month, have drastically reduced my usage overall, and yet I am being told that I will be nearly £800 in debit at the 'end of my plan'.  
1 - I don't have a plan as I am not locked in to a tariff
2 - I have a smart meter so they have regular readings of my usage, so where is the estimate coming from?
3 - what else can I do to reduce the amount they 'think' I am going to owe them?
4 - can I challenge them on the amount they project I will owe?

Nobody has a cheaper deal than the SVT at the moment, particularly with the new cap.

You do have 'a plan', it's the twelve-month annual cycle through cheaper summer and more expensive winter months.

How much do they estimate your annual usage to be, and how much do you think it is (and why)?  Having a smart meter doesn't mean that they have accurate numbers for what you are going to use in the future, that can only ever be an estimate.

You can always ask them to reduce the DD (or not put it up) but you'll need some actual numbers to back it up, not just a general thought that "it seems a lot".

Thanks for that.  So by the sounds of it, unless I can sit down and physically calculate myself as to what I think I will use, I have no recourse?  
I am guessing that when they 'review' my direct debit, they will take into account any credit balance that I have at that point in time, and then adjust for that 'finger in the wind' estimate for what I may use?  If the estimates are based on last year's usage, I would have been using more electricity as I had building work being done on my house, so lots of power tools being used! 
Am I the only one thinking that maybe some of this price / direct debit hiking is to help ensure that the energy company bottom line / profit figures are looking alot better than what they could be?
Surely also if the wholesale gas prices have come down, that should be taken into account also.  Coupled with the fact that energy 'supplies' are secured in price using the futures market, the money which is being made now is pure profit as it has already been bought and paid for!  
Apologies if I am looking at this very simplistically but I am growing rather fed up of being asked to pay more and more, there is nowhere offering any choice to reduce my outgoings and if I don't pay I will end up with a poor credit file score.  If I am getting more when being asked to pay more, I don't think I would mind as much - but I am not getting any more than I have already had!

The most simplistic approach they use for estimating future usage is to take last year's total usage and then apply a factor for what the weather is predicted to do - last winter was mild, this one might not be.

Talking about wholesale prices - the old system actually looked at what price suppliers were actually paying for their energy to work out what the cap should be.  The original prices for the standard variable tariffs in October were much higher than what the new tariffs have been capped to (51p rather than 34p for electricity for example), and expected to double again by April next year.  If you really want to pay prices based on the wholesale market, then you could always suggest we go back to that.  None of the price rises affect the profit margins of the suppliers, they were specifically capped to 1.9% and have been for some time.  Don't fall for the nonsense on twitter where people pick one number out of a whole market and claim that there's some conspiracy.  Would you really like your unit price to change daily based on a random number from the market?

There are plenty of people on here who can calculate what you might use, if you have an indication of your annual usage - there'll be a predicted one on each bill, and you can always take two bills (a year apart) and look at the readings on them.

You're roughly right with what they've done though - at the review now they've looked at what credit you are in, what you are expected to pay in between now and the end of the plan (probably somewhere in spring looking at the results they've given), and worked out how much the energy they think you will use before then will cost - and discovered that you will be paying in £800 less than needed based on that maths.

QrizB

HayleyC80 said:

Thanks for that.  So by the sounds of it, unless I can sit down and physically calculate myself as to what I think I will use, I have no recourse?

A recent bill should include an Estimated Annual Consumption (EAC) value for each of gas and electricity. If you don;t want to look back at previous bills to work out your actual past year's consumption, the EAC values should be close enough.

If you share those values with us we can work out what your next year's energy will cost on the EPG tariff.

Am I the only one thinking that maybe some of this price / direct debit hiking is to help ensure that the energy company bottom line / profit figures are looking alot better than what they could be?

Credits on customer accounts will show on the liabilities section of their financial information, not on the assets section. They will not improve their figures.

Surely also if the wholesale gas prices have come down, that should be taken into account also.

Wholesale gas prices are still much higher than they were last year. They were briefly 20x higher than normal; they're now only 15x higher.

Deleted_User said:

Would you really like your unit price to change daily based on a random number from the market?

And if you *would* like your price to change every day, Octopus have a Tracker tariff that does exactly that.

You can see the historic prices here:

https://energy.guylipman.com/sm/gastracker

https://energy.guylipman.com/sm/electracker

annvm93

Just for info:
I fixed for 12 months with Ovo in August to start on 1 October, when my previous fix ended..  This is now above the current cap and after reading Martin's advice I contacted them by online chat and asked if I could do a tariff switch with no exit fees. They agreed to this, but I had to ring them to do the switch. I got through with only a 10 mins wait and the switch starts tomorrow and should show on my account then.

Qyburn

lean&mean said:

Thanks for spotting this jiggy2.  Is it just me or does just £100 seem a bit mean?  My sister has an oil fired boiler because her village has no gas.  The price of oil has at least doubled in 6 months.  Why should households not using gas or electricity only get £100?  Surely something approaching the same payment that gas and electric customers get would be fairer.

That's not been the case everywhere, for example locally oil prices have risen from 53p last October to 83p just now.  And actually dropped in the last six months. You can't do a single historical comparison because oil prices vary all the time, whereas gas has stayed at those capped rates for months on end. However just looking at current figures it seems that oil costs around 12% more than gas just now, but after October it's likely to be around 10% less.

What the comparison will be like in two years time is anyone's guess.