How much longer will this bear market go on for?

GazzaBloom

Perma bear, Jeremy Grantham has been reading this thread:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-gmo-stock-market-bubble-crash-superbubble-inflation-nasdaq-2022-9

"60% percent of the time he's right all the time"

masonic

GazzaBloom said:

Perma bear, Jeremy Grantham has been reading this thread:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-gmo-stock-market-bubble-crash-superbubble-inflation-nasdaq-2022-9

Only 26%? Lightweight!

Type_45

The Fed has made no secret of the fact its throwing the equities market under the bus.  Probably no surprise as individuals at the Fed are apparently no longer able to trade equities (so I've heard, but not verified).  They can't have been any clearer.  But retail investors are in a trance and probably think it's bullish that the Fed is throwing them under the wheels.

There is however a real chance that the Fed will feel it has to bail out the market by directly buying equities if it all goes belly up (which it will).  This should not be what any of us should wish for.  It would reward poor performance and lead to a massive gap between the rich and poor (ie, those who have assets and those who don't).

Prism

Type_45 said:

The Fed has made no secret of the fact its throwing the equities market under the bus.  Probably no surprise as individuals at the Fed are apparently no longer able to trade equities (so I've heard, but not verified).  They can't have been any clearer.  But retail investors are in a trance and probably think it's bullish that the Fed is throwing them under the wheels.

There is however a real chance that the Fed will feel it has to bail out the market by directly buying equities if it all goes belly up (which it will).  This should not be what any of us should wish for.  It would reward poor performance and lead to a massive gap between the rich and poor (ie, those who have assets and those who don't).

What do you mean by retail investors? I would say most of us are invested in funds run by the big institutions like Blackrock and Vanguard or through pension funds provided by State Street or similar. I'm not convinced that retail investors have any significant influence over market prices. The valuation is primarily set by institutions which is basically all of us. Of course there is some level of influence by the hedge funds which tend to represent higher net worth individuals but that is usually limited to single stock shorting and options.

Type_45

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

The Fed has made no secret of the fact its throwing the equities market under the bus.  Probably no surprise as individuals at the Fed are apparently no longer able to trade equities (so I've heard, but not verified).  They can't have been any clearer.  But retail investors are in a trance and probably think it's bullish that the Fed is throwing them under the wheels.

There is however a real chance that the Fed will feel it has to bail out the market by directly buying equities if it all goes belly up (which it will).  This should not be what any of us should wish for.  It would reward poor performance and lead to a massive gap between the rich and poor (ie, those who have assets and those who don't).

What do you mean by retail investors? I would say most of us are invested in funds run by the big institutions like Blackrock and Vanguard or through pension funds provided by State Street or similar. I'm not convinced that retail investors have any significant influence over market prices. The valuation is primarily set by institutions which is basically all of us. Of course there is some level of influence by the hedge funds which tend to represent higher net worth individuals but that is usually limited to single stock shorting and options.

 
Private investors such as myself. 

GazzaBloom

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

The Fed has made no secret of the fact its throwing the equities market under the bus.  Probably no surprise as individuals at the Fed are apparently no longer able to trade equities (so I've heard, but not verified).  They can't have been any clearer.  But retail investors are in a trance and probably think it's bullish that the Fed is throwing them under the wheels.

There is however a real chance that the Fed will feel it has to bail out the market by directly buying equities if it all goes belly up (which it will).  This should not be what any of us should wish for.  It would reward poor performance and lead to a massive gap between the rich and poor (ie, those who have assets and those who don't).

What do you mean by retail investors? I would say most of us are invested in funds run by the big institutions like Blackrock and Vanguard or through pension funds provided by State Street or similar. I'm not convinced that retail investors have any significant influence over market prices. The valuation is primarily set by institutions which is basically all of us. Of course there is some level of influence by the hedge funds which tend to represent higher net worth individuals but that is usually limited to single stock shorting and options.

 
Private investors such as myself. 

Look out there's a whale in the house 

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

The Fed has made no secret of the fact its throwing the equities market under the bus.  Probably no surprise as individuals at the Fed are apparently no longer able to trade equities (so I've heard, but not verified).  They can't have been any clearer.  But retail investors are in a trance and probably think it's bullish that the Fed is throwing them under the wheels.

There is however a real chance that the Fed will feel it has to bail out the market by directly buying equities if it all goes belly up (which it will).  This should not be what any of us should wish for.  It would reward poor performance and lead to a massive gap between the rich and poor (ie, those who have assets and those who don't).

The Fed is just acting to get inflation under control - we've explained this to you before and it's ultimately to the benefit of retail investors. Or do you disagree and think like Erdoğan that inflation is nothing to worry about?

Malthusian

InvesterJones said:

The Fed is just acting to get inflation under control - we've explained this to you before and it's ultimately to the benefit of retail investors. Or do you disagree and think like Erdoğan that inflation is nothing to worry about?

In fairness to Erdogan, he's Turkish. He grew up paying ten trillion lira for a bag of penny sweets. It's a bit like when the UK experiences a snowstorm and expats living in Canada all go "what are you lot moaning about" and start swanking about the size of the snow chains on their SUVs. 

Type_45

Prism said:

Just to join in with the short term nature of some of the posts made in this thread, my investments are all doing pretty well over this last week so I guess the crash is over.

Overall I'm pretty happy with overall recent performance.

Any update on this, please?

jcuurthht

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Just to join in with the short term nature of some of the posts made in this thread, my investments are all doing pretty well over this last week so I guess the crash is over.

Overall I'm pretty happy with overall recent performance.

Any update on this, please?

Why, did something happen?

I started my All World ETF in Aug 2020. I just checked and its up 10.5%. I'll check again in a couple of years.