How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

adindas said:

GSP said:

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

And do you think changing most of your investments (13) which have fallen over the last year is a good time to do now, or just sit tight and wait until they bounce back, hopefully?

With changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better, and is there a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones?

I do both Long Term Investing and Short Term Trading. For long term holding, that is where majority of my investment, they are in index funds, well known fund. and I do not own any bond. I have not sold any of them. But in total I am still green to this days, this might lend to "enhanced" DCA strategy. E.g DCA combined with TAs and Stock market news.

When you hear the Mega-cap stock is about to report missing earning expectation, downgrading their earning guidance, the indicators have not shown extreme fear, the FED is about announce in interest hike you have better wait until they do it. So you get a higher chance to get it cheaper. I DCAs as low as £200. I trade as low as £10 but no fees. So to answer this question, no I do not change my investment.

I fully believe the investment like S&P500,VLS 100% Equity will be bouncing back to ATH. Noone knows where the bottom is but we eventually will hit the bottom. That is why the DCA is frequently mentioned by the investing experts, as a smart strategy in the bear market. I have posted a few links about this in the past. Even proven investors such as Benjamin Graham the father of Value investing are recommending it. In the past when a person mentioned about DCA in favour of lump-sum investing in the bear market, they would get heavily attacked by the same group of people in this forum as this would mean timing the market. The wording that many people take in their face value.

I fully believe many people will agree with you that changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better. Nothing is guaranteed in the stock market. If this is guaranteed we will all become a multi millionaires.

And regarding the a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones. It is always possibility. In the investing the analyst call it the "fallen Angel" a good example of this is GE (General Electric) once was one of the best US companies now they never reach their glory their historical ATH. For that reason watching the news having an investment thesis is important before throwing the money. People do not sell it just because of the market volatility. People will only sell it when there is a fundamental change.

Above all, in the forum like this,the people will need to do their own DDs, do what you believe, you take your win you take take your own loss.

What's the guidance this week from economists, analysts, strategists, authoritative figures and proven billionaires? 

Millyonare

Hexane said:

Millyonare said:

aroominyork said:

Terry Smith: 

Millyonare said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said:

Right now, the IMF says the UK is the fastest-growing G7 economy in 2022, with the 2nd lowest debt. That is good news.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

Yes, that is what our government say too. If you read the link, it explains why it happened. Except that it was 2021, we are in 2022 now, so the figures are not out yet.
It was because our economy shrank the most in 2020.

Nice try 😉

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fey_qgZXoAIGxCO?format=jpg

Except, as we have been told manifold times, we are about heading to the bottom of that graph.

We love nothing more than to forecast recessions, housing falls, unemployment, and they often don't happen.

Funny that. As a homeowner and someone who owns large amounts of stocks, I greatly enjoy reading discussions where people claim that the housing market is about to implode and that the stock market is going to drop 80%. As someone who owns no Bitcoin, I greatly enjoy reading discussions where people claim that Bitcoin is about to quadruple in price and that people without any Bitcoin will be the new poor. (These latter types of discussion are more difficult to find now, though, on this forum anyway.)

One common theme for years about the hysteria and doom-loop posts is that many are subjective and forward-looking. Carefully-worded forecasts dressed up to sound like certain facts of the here and now. A crafty play on words. They think people don't notice 

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

GSP said:

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

And do you think changing most of your investments (13) which have fallen over the last year is a good time to do now, or just sit tight and wait until they bounce back, hopefully?

With changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better, and is there a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones?

I do both Long Term Investing and Short Term Trading. For long term holding, that is where majority of my investment, they are in index funds, well known fund. and I do not own any bond. I have not sold any of them. But in total I am still green to this days, this might lend to "enhanced" DCA strategy. E.g DCA combined with TAs and Stock market news.

When you hear the Mega-cap stock is about to report missing earning expectation, downgrading their earning guidance, the indicators have not shown extreme fear, the FED is about announce in interest hike you have better wait until they do it. So you get a higher chance to get it cheaper. I DCAs as low as £200. I trade as low as £10 but no fees. So to answer this question, no I do not change my investment.

I fully believe the investment like S&P500,VLS 100% Equity will be bouncing back to ATH. Noone knows where the bottom is but we eventually will hit the bottom. That is why the DCA is frequently mentioned by the investing experts, as a smart strategy in the bear market. I have posted a few links about this in the past. Even proven investors such as Benjamin Graham the father of Value investing are recommending it. In the past when a person mentioned about DCA in favour of lump-sum investing in the bear market, they would get heavily attacked by the same group of people in this forum as this would mean timing the market. The wording that many people take in their face value.

I fully believe many people will agree with you that changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better. Nothing is guaranteed in the stock market. If this is guaranteed we will all become a multi millionaires.

And regarding the a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones. It is always possibility. In the investing the analyst call it the "fallen Angel" a good example of this is GE (General Electric) once was one of the best US companies now they never reach their glory their historical ATH. For that reason watching the news having an investment thesis is important before throwing the money. People do not sell it just because of the market volatility. People will only sell it when there is a fundamental change.

Above all, in the forum like this,the people will need to do their own DDs, do what you believe, you take your win you take take your own loss.

What's the guidance this week from economists, analysts, strategists, authoritative figures and proven billionaires? 

Nothing  this week.
But the ultimate guidance that applicable all the time is
- In the Long Run the stock market will always go up.
- The time to buy is when there is a blood in the street
- Bad Times Make for Good Buys
- Do not catch the falling knife.

I also get guidance from prophet at this MSE saying that the stock Market will tank at 80% by the end of this year.

Type_45

Who Are The Mystery Buyers Responsible For Central Bank Gold Boom?

• Purchases from central banks hit a record last quarter: WGC
• That included a ‘substantial’ amount of unreported buying

“Central banks bought a record amount of gold last qtr as they diversified FX reserves, with a large chunk of the purchases coming from as-yet unknown buyers.  Almost 400 tons were scooped up by CB’s in 3q, more than quadruple the amount a year earlier.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-01/central-bank-gold-demand-booms-driven-by-mystery-buying?leadSource=uverify%20wall

InvesterJones

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

GSP said:

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

And do you think changing most of your investments (13) which have fallen over the last year is a good time to do now, or just sit tight and wait until they bounce back, hopefully?

With changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better, and is there a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones?

I do both Long Term Investing and Short Term Trading. For long term holding, that is where majority of my investment, they are in index funds, well known fund. and I do not own any bond. I have not sold any of them. But in total I am still green to this days, this might lend to "enhanced" DCA strategy. E.g DCA combined with TAs and Stock market news.

When you hear the Mega-cap stock is about to report missing earning expectation, downgrading their earning guidance, the indicators have not shown extreme fear, the FED is about announce in interest hike you have better wait until they do it. So you get a higher chance to get it cheaper. I DCAs as low as £200. I trade as low as £10 but no fees. So to answer this question, no I do not change my investment.

I fully believe the investment like S&P500,VLS 100% Equity will be bouncing back to ATH. Noone knows where the bottom is but we eventually will hit the bottom. That is why the DCA is frequently mentioned by the investing experts, as a smart strategy in the bear market. I have posted a few links about this in the past. Even proven investors such as Benjamin Graham the father of Value investing are recommending it. In the past when a person mentioned about DCA in favour of lump-sum investing in the bear market, they would get heavily attacked by the same group of people in this forum as this would mean timing the market. The wording that many people take in their face value.

I fully believe many people will agree with you that changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better. Nothing is guaranteed in the stock market. If this is guaranteed we will all become a multi millionaires.

And regarding the a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones. It is always possibility. In the investing the analyst call it the "fallen Angel" a good example of this is GE (General Electric) once was one of the best US companies now they never reach their glory their historical ATH. For that reason watching the news having an investment thesis is important before throwing the money. People do not sell it just because of the market volatility. People will only sell it when there is a fundamental change.

Above all, in the forum like this,the people will need to do their own DDs, do what you believe, you take your win you take take your own loss.

What's the guidance this week from economists, analysts, strategists, authoritative figures and proven billionaires? 

But the ultimate guidance that applicable all the time is
- In the Long Run the stock stock will always go up.
- The time to buy is when there is a blood in the street
- Bad Times Make for Good Buys
- Do not catch the falling knife.

The last one is a bit at odds with the others on face value, but I think is more aimed at people trying to time the market and thus looking for a local minimum. The first three adages imply buying in a falling market isn't a bad thing in the long run.

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

GSP said:

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

And do you think changing most of your investments (13) which have fallen over the last year is a good time to do now, or just sit tight and wait until they bounce back, hopefully?

With changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better, and is there a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones?

I do both Long Term Investing and Short Term Trading. For long term holding, that is where majority of my investment, they are in index funds, well known fund. and I do not own any bond. I have not sold any of them. But in total I am still green to this days, this might lend to "enhanced" DCA strategy. E.g DCA combined with TAs and Stock market news.

When you hear the Mega-cap stock is about to report missing earning expectation, downgrading their earning guidance, the indicators have not shown extreme fear, the FED is about announce in interest hike you have better wait until they do it. So you get a higher chance to get it cheaper. I DCAs as low as £200. I trade as low as £10 but no fees. So to answer this question, no I do not change my investment.

I fully believe the investment like S&P500,VLS 100% Equity will be bouncing back to ATH. Noone knows where the bottom is but we eventually will hit the bottom. That is why the DCA is frequently mentioned by the investing experts, as a smart strategy in the bear market. I have posted a few links about this in the past. Even proven investors such as Benjamin Graham the father of Value investing are recommending it. In the past when a person mentioned about DCA in favour of lump-sum investing in the bear market, they would get heavily attacked by the same group of people in this forum as this would mean timing the market. The wording that many people take in their face value.

I fully believe many people will agree with you that changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better. Nothing is guaranteed in the stock market. If this is guaranteed we will all become a multi millionaires.

And regarding the a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones. It is always possibility. In the investing the analyst call it the "fallen Angel" a good example of this is GE (General Electric) once was one of the best US companies now they never reach their glory their historical ATH. For that reason watching the news having an investment thesis is important before throwing the money. People do not sell it just because of the market volatility. People will only sell it when there is a fundamental change.

Above all, in the forum like this,the people will need to do their own DDs, do what you believe, you take your win you take take your own loss.

What's the guidance this week from economists, analysts, strategists, authoritative figures and proven billionaires? 

But the ultimate guidance that applicable all the time is
- In the Long Run the stock stock will always go up.
- The time to buy is when there is a blood in the street
- Bad Times Make for Good Buys
- Do not catch the falling knife.

The last one is a bit at odds with the others on face value, but I think is more aimed at people trying to time the market and thus looking for a local minimum. The first three adages imply buying in a falling market isn't a bad thing in the long run.

It's not a good idea.  Hence the expression of "never catch a falling knife".

I had a recent experience.  The crypto coin 'Luna Classic' fell by approximately 99%.  I bought some.  It then fell ANOTHER 99%.


Stocks likewise.  Just because something falls by 50% it doesn't mean it can't fall another 50%+ from the point you bought it. 

adindas

InvesterJones said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

GSP said:

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

And do you think changing most of your investments (13) which have fallen over the last year is a good time to do now, or just sit tight and wait until they bounce back, hopefully?

With changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better, and is there a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones?

I do both Long Term Investing and Short Term Trading. For long term holding, that is where majority of my investment, they are in index funds, well known fund. and I do not own any bond. I have not sold any of them. But in total I am still green to this days, this might lend to "enhanced" DCA strategy. E.g DCA combined with TAs and Stock market news.

When you hear the Mega-cap stock is about to report missing earning expectation, downgrading their earning guidance, the indicators have not shown extreme fear, the FED is about announce in interest hike you have better wait until they do it. So you get a higher chance to get it cheaper. I DCAs as low as £200. I trade as low as £10 but no fees. So to answer this question, no I do not change my investment.

I fully believe the investment like S&P500,VLS 100% Equity will be bouncing back to ATH. Noone knows where the bottom is but we eventually will hit the bottom. That is why the DCA is frequently mentioned by the investing experts, as a smart strategy in the bear market. I have posted a few links about this in the past. Even proven investors such as Benjamin Graham the father of Value investing are recommending it. In the past when a person mentioned about DCA in favour of lump-sum investing in the bear market, they would get heavily attacked by the same group of people in this forum as this would mean timing the market. The wording that many people take in their face value.

I fully believe many people will agree with you that changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better. Nothing is guaranteed in the stock market. If this is guaranteed we will all become a multi millionaires.

And regarding the a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones. It is always possibility. In the investing the analyst call it the "fallen Angel" a good example of this is GE (General Electric) once was one of the best US companies now they never reach their glory their historical ATH. For that reason watching the news having an investment thesis is important before throwing the money. People do not sell it just because of the market volatility. People will only sell it when there is a fundamental change.

Above all, in the forum like this,the people will need to do their own DDs, do what you believe, you take your win you take take your own loss.

What's the guidance this week from economists, analysts, strategists, authoritative figures and proven billionaires? 

But the ultimate guidance that applicable all the time is
- In the Long Run the stock stock will always go up.
- The time to buy is when there is a blood in the street
- Bad Times Make for Good Buys
- Do not catch the falling knife.

The last one is a bit at odds with the others on face value, but I think is more aimed at people trying to time the market and thus looking for a local minimum. The first three adages imply buying in a falling market isn't a bad thing in the long run.

Do not catch the falling knife is a well known phrase for those who use technical Analysis. If you wait until it falls to the next "Support level" (settle on the ground), you will be more likely (not 100%) to get it right than those who bought it randomly while they are still in free falling. It is not to suggest they will always fall to the previous support level though, as they might form the new support, but at least you will be more likely (not 100% accuracy) to get it at a better price. Another famous rule is "three days rule" for a quality stock that free falling for those who are not identifying support/resistance level. But again people need to do DYOR and follow their own strategy that will work for them.

Type_45 said:

It's not a good idea.  Hence the expression of "never catch a falling knife".

I had a recent experience.  The crypto coin 'Luna Classic' fell by approximately 99%.  I bought some.  It then fell ANOTHER 99%.
Stocks likewise.  Just because something falls by 50% it doesn't mean it can't fall another 50%+ from the point you bought it. 

Thus reflected in someone's comments. The people like Peter Lynch will be asking this person this question. Why did you buy it in the first instance. Did you do meticulous Due Diligence before you buy it?. Do you know that there is bitcoin, there is also shitcoin. How many billionaire Crypto investors such as Mark Cuban, Bill Miller, Mathew Rozzak, Ray Dalio, John Poulson, Paul Tudoer Jones are holding Luna ??

Type_45 said:

Stocks likewise.  Just because something falls by 50% it doesn't mean it can't fall another 50%+ from the point you bought it. 

Yep for those who bough the stock following the crowd those who do not do DDs before buying it. Those who bough P&D penny stocks. But for quality stocks, what is the likelihood they will fall another 50% if they have fallen 50%. Considering the odd is the likelihood that they will fall another 50%+  are more than they will likely to go up again ??. Keep in mind I am not saying, no chance but in term of probability is there more than 50% 50%+ or less ??

sevenhills

adindas said:

Do not catch the falling knife is a well known phrase for those who use technical Analysis.

Often used by non experts. Is there a phrase for the opposite?
People used to talk about Tesla's upward climb and it being over valued.
A friend commented about the fall of Persimmon Homes, looks good value. I was tempted, but recent dividend payments and a possible house price fall makes it risky.
I low PE of 5 on Google, but looking on HL it's PE was 11

adindas

Job Openings Surged in September Despite Fed Efforts to Cool Labor Market CNBC November 1, 2022

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/business/money-report/job-openings-surged-in-september-despite-fed-efforts-to-cool-labor-market/3111293/

This could be two edge swords. Good news for the economy. Also last week GDP report the US confirmed the the US was out of the  technical recession. But on the other side this could also give more reason for the FED to keep being hawkish in rasing the interest rate without hearting the unemployment (their other mandate).

FOMC meeting is today at 2pm Eastern time followed by a Press Conference.

coastline

sevenhills said:

adindas said:

Do not catch the falling knife is a well known phrase for those who use technical Analysis.

Often used by non experts. Is there a phrase for the opposite?
People used to talk about Tesla's upward climb and it being over valued.
A friend commented about the fall of Persimmon Homes, looks good value. I was tempted, but recent dividend payments and a possible house price fall makes it risky.
I low PE of 5 on Google, but looking on HL it's PE was 11

Depends how P/E values are posted as this is a common mistake with data. Historical P/E's and forward P/E's are totally different . In this case P/E 11 is year 2021 . Forward P/E highlighted in blue shaded areas is 5 and 7 from 2022-24. Research is always best done with forward P/E. Hope that helps.

PERSIMMON PLC : Financial Data Forecasts Estimates and Expectations | PSN | GB0006825383 | MarketScreener

Now the markets as adindas just pointed out employment is still strong and vacancies are way above pre covid levels. Hard to see the FED not lifting rates and sticking with the plan. 5% next year ?

FgjCu76XoAEXDeE (564×431) (twimg.com)

FgeHpv5XkAA1Zci (564×573) (twimg.com)

The idea is something like this. Rates above inflation.

FgfbfOrWQAAmkLy (564×427) (twimg.com)

Stocks have had great run and the best month since 1976 . Stochastic on the top and maybe curling down. I'm guessing at some consolidation but still above the earlier year lows.

Fgf_dskVEAE1Dbx (760×381) (twimg.com)

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com